q1a: S&P Net Debt / EBITDA (x)

ground truthLLM averageLLM std. dev.DeepSeek-V4-ProOut tokensTimeKimi K2.6Out tokensTimeMiniMax M2.7Out tokensTimeQwen 3.6 PlusOut tokensTimeGLM 5.1Out tokensTimeGPT-5.5Out tokensTimeGPT-5 nanoOut tokensTimeClaude Opus 4.6Out tokensTimeClaude Haiku 4.5Out tokensTimeGemini 3.1 Pro PreviewOut tokensTimeGemini 3.1 Flash-Lite PreviewOut tokensTime
ENEL - SPA 20224.843.920.803.9895576.9854.88838109.7044.311043298.4353.847235143.6794.06151328.0724.475829.6472.07191.5684.63107725.2463.15173015.6074.47717856.6293.386612.923
ENI S.P.A. 20220.951.020.381.153247115.6110.979098126.1361.2916816130.6580.51399639.1290.9690019.2860.8256710.0051.85181.3711.05110226.2821.3160516.4970.613867127.2720.686313.29
A2A ENERGIA S.P.A. 20223.473.420.583.92109643.4363.27506674.4713.961166879.6723.03466259.283.17123029.4773.0370514.9152.66181.2944.74126132.8453.3146112.6013.5116486153.4743.047223.512
"TERNA - RETE ELETTRICA NAZIONALE SOCIETA' PER AZIONI" (IN FORMA ABBREVIATA "TERNA S.P.A.") 20224.354.740.444.5288664.9054.71519881.3144.9816262169.1714.594765100.2584.4592120.254.4568310.8974.12181.2885.64111926.2854.98116910.784.46584147.4065.276833.679
REDEIA CORPORACION SA 20223.213.630.904.5339583.754.28649877.6713.5518503117.3354.28258435.0063.7980815.6293.164110.1891.36181.4234.28119628.6453.26146113.3453.3214688115.5614.197053.347
EDP, S.A. 20224.063.890.754.1202591.7434.2613000222.8213.531049171.5973.65552986.1913.59171236.264.2995016.8232.31181.534.32107727.895.15250921.9044.3724275185.5533.29333.783
ENGIE 20223.253.501.533.8426300529.0613.0810542208.9095.3123516189.1362.638970175.952.01121319.992.5388314.8417.12181.3484.04131933.2522.94136413.1212.7916262127.9222.246243.743
IBERDROLA SA 20223.914.340.855.39177270.6934.2213457251.0565.2314606134.1744.276803141.4634.93164337.1563.572711.6022.67181.4484.28119128.0544.7139213.1123.515537154.4215.086722.953
NATURGY ENERGY GROUP SA 20222.672.660.522.431404115.0622.49703290.4092.1128467235.0132.49229725.0742.5383314.9342.495399.7812.25181.1853.72117529.933.64174716.8282.55821866.9872.67163.228
TenneT Holding B.V. 202283.8530.2328.7486.4881936.85353.7918570275.978.6640897421.7429.768875165.95423.15144033.23751.371711.2223.12181.07965.26119228.73813.1127611.639.3817202141.7178.58183.482
VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT 20223.923.740.623.73117957.1474.5712639222.954.0916516142.7983.964822112.8613.5197723.64.4899615.5342.47181.3573.96187743.2683.4179715.6964.017875157.0332.998453.918
ØRSTED A/S 20222.52.721.304.79199567.3662.0411520187.4931.911284798.8732.79636492.3472.16130722.8113.0859411.7984.86181.3483.75123329.0430.68165915.5932.041146190.391.846863.871
ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE 2022-8.22-43.2160.73-150.33105755.562-31.99431128.3251.3811724104.161-25.12518853.687-19.5591423.922-35.8261610.4210.62181.343-41.13117628.824-157.68200520.174-24.2123316215.651-41.597683.543
ERG S.P.A. 2022not available5.042.454.382152108.684.6115878279.1111.7617733153.2814.35464764.6884.23133030.0073.7661810.4272.23183.1414.23117425.1266.17131112.5654.01954876.1655.77453.242
Acciona SA 2022not available2.820.232.66107457.062.7814482185.0792.41974877.8492.66721471.7793.1101715.9832.6866010.3523.12181.1812.85118331.7573.17145914.162.7920618158.7712.797182.971
Fortum Oyj 20221.846.0311.673.1688234.2651.5910750160.7312.5422520179.9741.59465783.273.98136534.1941.594818.8640.6181.1271.8109327.7537.04174416.891.58998992.44640.817143.971
VERBUND AG 20221.61.240.470.95118173.3581.12716492.2561.041218979.6651.12435753.5311.1698523.6641.1264910.142.63181.3761.28122030.071.18220319.8011.1111167101.0510.987463.211
ITALGAS S.P.A. 2022not available5.130.925.93202467.5795.3311048144.0575.4914845131.423.835871121.2225.83118425.0915.6175110.4493.04181.3095.5114827.6874.57150214.0855.63802081.0125.638203.333
ACEA S.P.A. 2022not available3.550.503.8289244.8773.758391129.3373.1816395166.6193.99370051.1613.4585418.213.7570811.8772.33181.1664.17110226.5713.33125611.6683.741112785.6553.57513.056
REN - REDES ENERGÉTICAS NACIONAIS, SGPS, S.A. 20224.374.410.754.545384115.2534.168680126.9414.09716288.4664.495615106.2374.53117630.64.3671111.0222.49181.2145.05117426.7575.36138712.8274.381124687.0225.115762.398
HERA S.P.A. 20224.234.011.183.8171660.8672.82611578.3434.517347145.73.73427774.574.31103724.1075.0777712.2462.28181.1416.43111524.7854.31152114.3584.2813101108.7592.597593.046
VINCI 20221.892.190.702.0578120.0532.339687153.9971.9518688206.781.85490561.8481.77109925.8061.975419.2474.23181.2592.04116129.1432.110189.931.9613729110.5761.87803.84
BOUYGUES 20223.261.540.902.35139764.8412.21668287.2590.6217862167.9812.36422558.4750.5574118.8332.215248.6930.61181.4062.58122229.3420.6110449.1142.211034291.1850.688653.484
FERROVIAL SA 2022not available8.282.8210.14121158.40510.4213922204.1059.38548656.7829.455702112.8834.57133332.2087.2678114.523.1181.84612.04124428.7566.6172516.6856.9211591106.05711.198473.858
FailuresCorrectAlmostC+AMean Absolute Error (ratio)Mean Bias Error (ratio)Root Mean Squared Error (ratio)Time (total)Time (average)Time (std. dev.)Cost (total)Cost (average)Cost (std. dev.)
DeepSeek-V4-Pro0013131.133-0.8033.9802113.4188.0697.431.520.060.02
Kimi K2.60014140.301-0.1990.6883698.44154.1065.081.690.070.02
MiniMax M2.70014140.6470.3521.7033447.28143.6475.160.690.030.01
Qwen 3.6 Plus0016160.294-0.2270.5462090.5487.1141.110.830.030.01
GLM 5.10013130.316-0.1380.507603.3325.146.631.180.050.01
GPT-5.50016160.314-0.2410.790275.5111.482.234.210.180.03
GPT-5 nano00440.636-0.0010.72233.751.410.400.040.000.00
Claude Opus 4.60011110.414-0.0810.954696.0529.003.764.870.200.03
Claude Haiku 4.50012121.368-0.8904.238348.9714.543.191.020.040.01
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview0016160.250-0.2270.5132738.72114.1141.415.630.230.06
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite Preview0011111.6050.7284.96081.683.400.390.250.010.00

q1b: S&P FFO / Net Debt (x)

ground truthLLM averageLLM std. dev.DeepSeek-V4-ProOut tokensTimeKimi K2.6Out tokensTimeMiniMax M2.7Out tokensTimeQwen 3.6 PlusOut tokensTimeGLM 5.1Out tokensTimeGPT-5.5Out tokensTimeGPT-5 nanoOut tokensTimeClaude Opus 4.6Out tokensTimeClaude Haiku 4.5Out tokensTimeGemini 3.1 Pro PreviewOut tokensTimeGemini 3.1 Flash-Lite PreviewOut tokensTime
ENEL - SPA 20220.15670.150.050.1402103267.1240.13612762209.7640.162419495241.670.15019441268.7140.1778104023.9640.140271812.6060.0522191.6680.1542127829.9410.2429153113.9650.166812963103.5910.17799153.664
ENI S.P.A. 20220.65930.670.190.760789587.1240.56115321208.3620.714518214228.8140.88587960237.3650.7081124923.5960.745266911.0920.1564191.5170.6083143436.8250.7759218619.0350.611629271267.1890.78828263.384
A2A ENERGIA S.P.A. 20220.23170.230.050.235473721.1250.269914200224.060.19811336141.1790.3059574285.4050.2425145231.0790.23545267.5610.1785192.940.1733126830.4010.3012145513.4010.160119048158.3280.2496973.029
"TERNA - RETE ELETTRICA NAZIONALE SOCIETA' PER AZIONI" (IN FORMA ABBREVIATA "TERNA S.P.A.") 20220.17240.150.030.1823723129.7940.172713846270.3970.146211963100.8840.1606476682.3410.1336100731.060.166471812.3040.0638191.240.1304123026.7570.1521128312.5610.171118587150.6150.13438452.999
REDEIA CORPORACION SA 20220.20630.160.040.188182944.5760.157915338263.5080.18121187264.8740.1603291153.5120.164129826.9280.188168010.1180.0443192.1620.1321118723.8090.2115134111.2670.18021023598.2210.15796692.917
EDP, S.A. 20220.18840.180.080.1486167281.7610.1818491252.4370.102827065200.30.1455504683.7920.231119328.4750.1744107217.1370.12191.2890.1635154336.6820.2163139113.5770.115821013149.0860.39348013.275
ENGIE 20220.24830.330.130.474110956.0440.377616423326.5940.260820462254.0870.38168089101.8840.3342138627.4080.315270311.3470.0702191.8160.2075080114.50.5137204520.8260.283428576277.4940.42358292.994
IBERDROLA SA 20220.19650.190.050.262483854.3620.180428756578.0730.172217164207.1340.17436970122.9040.2096118532.6440.218587414.8830.068191.4280.2252131934.660.2122152414.4280.19428629271.0850.18689764.29
NATURGY ENERGY GROUP SA 20220.28470.270.070.3352129290.510.298113708231.7760.332111222161.5860.29815983150.1770.2102127429.680.297964411.0510.1332191.240.2785137833.3220.165144712.730.304818538148.3980.29816262.852
TenneT Holding B.V. 2022-0.010.050.15-0.0105217652.9750.056727150376.0830.07619811225.647-0.01139140123.781-0.0086106423.5260.0214101216.028-0.1493191.2230.01061287633.8450.4555196117.0240.07629435240.854-0.01417073.401
VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT 20220.19720.190.060.2021117980.4440.19119236290.180.213522468155.5480.1949569889.3120.2893146427.7290.1654112517.2580.0451191.4010.16776431130.4980.2164216219.0710.168822205178.8860.23279333.609
ØRSTED A/S 20220.31240.280.200.3409115850.2690.139112982178.1320.334423462434.0640.21348634207.240.0489177330.0690.174167210.6280.0396191.2980.2941118028.7330.3821139813.7190.747919525154.1840.37218513.22
ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE 2022-0.15790.010.18-0.027598656.014-0.015720697315.1440.534924916233.917-0.0854569297.89-0.0302117429.429-0.050170212.977-0.0689191.4820.005910228219.446-0.0706122212.063-0.071126451207.937-0.00958903.824
ERG S.P.A. 2022not available0.150.070.1594104162.3110.168822142432.758-0.010934987336.5580.1688554773.1840.1868133232.4320.189575112.0570.0473191.2950.162126229.340.202162014.0920.18916354122.5540.16547853.132
Acciona SA 2022not available0.270.060.31791529104.3380.207414772203.5570.314122852264.5670.23728415249.4620.3395131328.7590.295373611.7660.1746191.3830.209115529.120.2324133311.7150.289919093152.7210.32188873.4
Fortum Oyj 20220.45560.390.220.533176652.5030.517414470194.7970.18233739404.0760.62136963116.5310.4499117625.3860.533171912.249-0.1472191.3210.4599111228.7920.3936166015.4280.559412088119.6130.24066882.569
VERBUND AG 20220.51740.790.221.0054124555.1830.784711562243.680.6715860208.6250.98967676140.690.784792818.6190.784779112.2840.2324191.3590.6895116139.0481.0051148012.9550.794524318185.0430.9346943.338
ITALGAS S.P.A. 2022not available0.150.020.144284828.1750.148510145142.5070.142622724193.6270.14718927165.1970.144589719.990.144265610.0620.1589193.110.1383122628.880.2213142612.5370.1481091976.3940.15099123.521
ACEA S.P.A. 2022not available0.200.020.2128414686.2760.177313996204.7310.2024307991014.6280.18335601111.6540.182592120.620.211763710.7010.1651193.7370.2011112227.7720.206811869.590.197830303274.050.21086513.236
REN - REDES ENERGÉTICAS NACIONAIS, SGPS, S.A. 20220.16860.180.080.1604374683.9230.169311639248.2640.1941905170.9560.1881184638.740.4032144337.3030.182175810.2970.0639191.2620.1436108726.9290.1503130411.4050.173524002247.0250.14957993.139
HERA S.P.A. 20220.17330.190.040.1891118348.7530.242217295224.2640.172121351201.8730.211690994.9980.1816112524.8930.198678812.6950.1109191.1630.1394107925.520.2568141713.3150.16941132988.9040.2037983.09
VINCI 20220.42210.370.070.39879150.820.35216924239.2310.419226298469.6980.41595537109.5580.408599426.2120.39816339.6910.1839192.7070.3131136034.6520.3947107210.3430.398219956181.5810.38979363.253
BOUYGUES 20220.24460.640.530.3502246468.6680.3778125117.8820.375419794222.6520.3334549297.1451.370976415.0630.393865310.1710.2021191.3760.2454113626.4341.4638134812.8060.377744358.5821.55158603.674
FERROVIAL SA 2022not available0.070.020.0564146669.5880.100217668277.7440.05519103222.740.08748199106.5940.1034102122.1090.046275612.8970.0796191.5130.0622124530.390.0564155515.060.10291188995.3020.04737613.157
FailuresCorrectAlmostC+AMean Absolute Error (ratio)Mean Bias Error (ratio)Root Mean Squared Error (ratio)Time (total)Time (average)Time (std. dev.)Cost (total)Cost (average)Cost (std. dev.)
DeepSeek-V4-Pro0019190.2520.1930.3891582.6665.9424.041.430.060.01
Kimi K2.60019190.5940.4481.5696253.92260.5896.452.270.090.02
MiniMax M2.70019190.8460.6762.2286459.70269.15184.970.830.030.01
Qwen 3.6 Plus0019190.2540.1330.3343008.07125.3460.220.920.040.01
GLM 5.10018180.5500.3841.156636.9726.545.071.190.050.01
GPT-5.50019190.3620.2610.774289.8612.082.344.270.180.03
GPT-5 nano0019191.320-1.2603.26140.931.710.700.040.000.00
Claude Opus 4.60019190.2980.0790.5581706.3071.10128.125.350.220.07
Claude Haiku 4.50018183.0022.91210.748332.9113.872.761.010.040.01
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview0019190.7000.5802.0154007.64166.9867.347.420.310.09
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite Preview0018180.6030.4371.30778.973.290.360.250.010.00

q1c: Leverage Trend (Moody's Adjusted)

ground truthLLM averageLLM std. dev.DeepSeek-V4-ProOut tokensTimeKimi K2.6Out tokensTimeMiniMax M2.7Out tokensTimeQwen 3.6 PlusOut tokensTimeGLM 5.1Out tokensTimeGPT-5.5Out tokensTimeGPT-5 nanoOut tokensTimeClaude Opus 4.6Out tokensTimeClaude Haiku 4.5Out tokensTimeGemini 3.1 Pro PreviewOut tokensTimeGemini 3.1 Flash-Lite PreviewOut tokensTime
ENEL - SPA 2022Improving-0.550.69Deteriorating124654.156Deteriorating603885.018Improving16298143.165Deteriorating5670103.644Stable217839.072Deteriorating119915.687Stable161.408Deteriorating155131.261Deteriorating238420.358Stable984070.807Deteriorating10693.776
ENI S.P.A. 2022Improving0.910.30Improving2629174.413Improving13319228.173Improving12540107.44Improving356443.637Improving188952.107Improving155919.246Stable161.213Improving168430.93Improving203716.3Improving643847.67Improving7863.134
A2A ENERGIA S.P.A. 2022Improving-0.820.40Deteriorating170061.116Deteriorating11352175.131Deteriorating21789185.966Deteriorating374759.372Deteriorating134727.661Deteriorating116112.74Stable161.149Deteriorating133025.779Deteriorating259921.247Stable798759.816Deteriorating11913.843
"TERNA - RETE ELETTRICA NAZIONALE SOCIETA' PER AZIONI" (IN FORMA ABBREVIATA "TERNA S.P.A.") 2022Improving0.910.30Improving121544.635Improving331650.122Improving8631108.408Improving327969.994Improving146327.729Improving196922.027Stable161.084Improving191433.376Improving236519.099Improving671747.407Improving12574.04
REDEIA CORPORACION SA 2022Improving0.270.65Stable153173.324Stable439882.049Improving13443133.097Stable340358.724Deteriorating130330.924Stable162420.056Stable161.116Improving185034.95Improving172513.68Improving1189489.231Stable8873.101
EDP, S.A. 2022Improving0.270.79Improving250492.317Improving9087112.218Stable1498998.847Stable505379.166Stable177338.219Improving171618.969Stable161.373Improving434891.357Deteriorating311926.384Improving819058.74Deteriorating12574.047
ENGIE 2022Improving-0.270.90Improving227564.878Deteriorating10883128.246Deteriorating1181094.513Deteriorating492060.608Improving182832.995Deteriorating148118.047Stable161.181Stable8876180.435Deteriorating317624.972Improving709152.915Deteriorating8633.269
IBERDROLA SA 2022Stable-0.360.50Deteriorating282065.959Stable11003144.914Stable809679.752Deteriorating478580.087Stable205943.242Stable159316.886Stable1615.758Stable217945.316Deteriorating272420.22Stable1013174.855Deteriorating8073.61
NATURGY ENERGY GROUP SA 2022Improving0.910.30Improving107444.55Improving468464.078Improving662487.995Improving385857.747Improving160130.599Improving154719.143Stable161.24Improving273254.96Improving270322.419Improving405230.555Improving11704.702
TenneT Holding B.V. 2022Deteriorating-0.910.30Deteriorating270784.255Deteriorating16411234.749Deteriorating12769151.027Deteriorating471074.051Deteriorating170328.386Deteriorating153017.297Stable161.093Deteriorating5348124.32Deteriorating236917.234Deteriorating633550.196Deteriorating8613.758
VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT 2022Deteriorating-0.270.90Deteriorating2578133.855Stable14133167.043Improving1289885.73Deteriorating6874105.388Deteriorating175637.461Deteriorating196823.695Stable161.331Improving7445151.935Improving246219.88Deteriorating18275125.12Deteriorating8883.346
ØRSTED A/S 2022Improving0.730.65Improving274982.194Improving290542.904Improving16073144.862Improving307638.234Improving162432.763Improving160919.795Deteriorating132510.867Stable203342.741Improving297022.893Improving816570.11Improving9654.586
ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE 2022Deteriorating-0.730.65Deteriorating351557.595Deteriorating11260244.548Deteriorating10747111.594Deteriorating675684.989Deteriorating204038.573Deteriorating179123.397Stable166.322Deteriorating219249.271Improving248819.879Deteriorating488339.241Deteriorating10784.502
ERG S.P.A. 2022NA0.910.30Improving183078.944Improving10706113.982Improving17515219.485Improving462974.29Improving185538.53Improving142716.561Stable161.229Improving280257.106Improving227017.101Improving606642.463Improving11553.932
Acciona SA 2022NA0.450.82Stable2079155.307Improving10594176.585Improving16772155.079Improving436483.547Deteriorating176343.683Improving172721.461Stable161.273Improving179732.981Improving273723.22Improving1227091.274Deteriorating8323.252
Fortum Oyj 2022Improving0.910.30Improving3088108.432Improving9623222.387Improving15454106.729Improving343055.556Improving176232.974Improving156116.778Stable161.161Improving143729.219Improving228818.941Improving755161.466Improving9783.813
VERBUND AG 2022Deteriorating0.090.94Improving178053.206Improving10694150.586Deteriorating22518152.183Deteriorating6160115.646Deteriorating185531.258Improving146515.028Stable161.247Improving224450.314Stable267022.142Improving752456.317Deteriorating8243.505
ITALGAS S.P.A. 2022NA-0.910.30Deteriorating113757.158Deteriorating500282.742Deteriorating13960178.286Deteriorating410773.066Deteriorating159034.421Deteriorating178918.832Stable161.251Deteriorating198550.212Deteriorating210216.319Deteriorating622946.606Deteriorating8483.228
ACEA S.P.A. 2022NA-0.180.40Stable264278.905Stable12687186.603Stable13478121.449Deteriorating438058.331Stable137523.924Stable126113.751Stable1610.169Stable144727.831Stable216315.697Deteriorating18307164.394Stable9063.387
REN - REDES ENERGÉTICAS NACIONAIS, SGPS, S.A. 2022Improving0.910.30Improving204079.238Improving281746.42Improving18274177.855Improving327936.584Improving133826.54Improving168117.624Stable161.037Improving176534.118Improving189014.205Improving524637.416Improving8463.315
HERA S.P.A. 2022Deteriorating-0.910.30Deteriorating151357.543Deteriorating15076219.009Deteriorating18964233.59Deteriorating5513104.315Deteriorating152331.593Deteriorating154716.412Stable161.204Deteriorating192735.337Deteriorating211914.823Deteriorating642246.618Deteriorating9353.737
VINCI 2022Improving0.910.30Improving218290.575Improving9972133.37Improving20052216.119Improving6064111.582Improving179539.174Improving131014.813Stable161.188Improving255155.046Improving229016.397Improving592942.244Improving8903.497
BOUYGUES 2022Deteriorating-0.910.30Deteriorating3130110.986Deteriorating11728153.578Deteriorating19112198.501Deteriorating5542103.54Deteriorating177130.328Deteriorating124912.83Stable161.033Deteriorating200636.183Deteriorating229616.944Deteriorating654948.055Deteriorating10293.738
FERROVIAL SA 2022NA-0.640.67Deteriorating7962117.36Deteriorating20993281.536Stable16844170.044Deteriorating683890.506Deteriorating189532.57Deteriorating199622.702Stable161.187Improving269959.127Deteriorating356327.24Deteriorating1105680.463Deteriorating8983.645
FailuresCorrectAlmostC+AMean Absolute ErrorMean Bias ErrorRoot Mean Squared ErrorTime (total)Time (average)Time (std. dev.)Cost (total)Cost (average)Cost (std. dev.)
DeepSeek-V4-Pro0142160.42-0.210.862020.9084.2034.111.520.060.01
Kimi K2.60132150.53-0.210.973525.99146.9268.751.680.070.02
MiniMax M2.70151160.37-0.160.833461.72144.2445.550.660.030.00
Qwen 3.6 Plus0133160.47-0.470.891822.6075.9423.180.800.030.01
GLM 5.10152170.32-0.320.73824.7334.366.421.260.050.01
GPT-5.50141150.47-0.260.95433.7818.073.154.920.210.03
GPT-5 nano0117181.00-0.371.0567.112.803.910.040.000.00
Claude Opus 4.60132150.53-0.110.971364.1056.8440.355.880.240.06
Claude Haiku 4.50112130.74-0.211.17467.5919.483.781.140.050.01
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview0162180.210.000.561533.9863.9230.124.220.180.05
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite Preview0132150.53-0.530.9788.763.700.440.260.010.00

q2: Suitability

ground truthLLM averageLLM std. dev.DeepSeek-V4-ProOut tokensTimeKimi K2.6Out tokensTimeMiniMax M2.7Out tokensTimeQwen 3.6 PlusOut tokensTimeGLM 5.1Out tokensTimeGPT-5.5Out tokensTimeGPT-5 nanoOut tokensTimeClaude Opus 4.6Out tokensTimeClaude Haiku 4.5Out tokensTimeGemini 3.1 Pro PreviewOut tokensTimeGemini 3.1 Flash-Lite PreviewOut tokensTime
ENEL - SPA 2022Strongly Suitable2.000.00Strongly Suitable54120.756Strongly Suitable237562.445Strongly Suitable229912.648Strongly Suitable73214.282Strongly Suitable39812.078Strongly Suitable59816.842Strongly Suitable2193.315Strongly Suitable122333.422Strongly Suitable155316.371Strongly Suitable164720.814Strongly Suitable3972.786
ENI S.P.A. 2022Marginally Suitable1.450.52Marginally Suitable82249.617Marginally Suitable161337.729Marginally Suitable612731.373Marginally Suitable127713.953Marginally Suitable41614.795Strongly Suitable58753.819Strongly Suitable4334.481Strongly Suitable95023.963Strongly Suitable163717.968Marginally Suitable305132.191Strongly Suitable4993.002
A2A ENERGIA S.P.A. 2022Strongly Suitable2.000.00Strongly Suitable910133.939Strongly Suitable131596.68Strongly Suitable253713.561Strongly Suitable90112.971Strongly Suitable52714.297Strongly Suitable55113.696Strongly Suitable2443.3Strongly Suitable110230.687Strongly Suitable165318.197Strongly Suitable161317.097Strongly Suitable4753.155
"TERNA - RETE ELETTRICA NAZIONALE SOCIETA' PER AZIONI" (IN FORMA ABBREVIATA "TERNA S.P.A.") 2022Strongly Suitable2.000.00Strongly Suitable10817.733Strongly Suitable122024.165Strongly Suitable190610.328Strongly Suitable7269.715Strongly Suitable41010.131Strongly Suitable56413.604Strongly Suitable4496.111Strongly Suitable96126.625Strongly Suitable124313.267Strongly Suitable120513.065Strongly Suitable3452.068
REDEIA CORPORACION SA 2022Strongly Suitable2.000.00Strongly Suitable47443.355Strongly Suitable137234.28Strongly Suitable188311.049Strongly Suitable104414.805Strongly Suitable40711.918Strongly Suitable59314.302Strongly Suitable2737.442Strongly Suitable91326.484Strongly Suitable108512.604Strongly Suitable166368.938Strongly Suitable4162.626
EDP, S.A. 2022Strongly Suitable2.000.00Strongly Suitable57624.549Strongly Suitable113738.734Strongly Suitable13348.426Strongly Suitable6559.706Strongly Suitable37611.549Strongly Suitable62614.249Strongly Suitable4824.554Strongly Suitable103828.333Strongly Suitable228926.287Strongly Suitable127613.623Strongly Suitable3822.494
ENGIE 2022Strongly Suitable1.820.40Strongly Suitable46915.604Strongly Suitable160375.161Strongly Suitable335830.271Strongly Suitable104619.432Strongly Suitable44712.306Strongly Suitable61214.148Marginally Suitable2832.843Strongly Suitable119930.814Marginally Suitable171719.402Strongly Suitable120515.956Strongly Suitable4322.718
IBERDROLA SA 2022Strongly Suitable2.000.00Strongly Suitable62131.617Strongly Suitable121345.712Strongly Suitable213713.476Strongly Suitable75913.721Strongly Suitable39416.863Strongly Suitable53712.312Strongly Suitable2422.686Strongly Suitable104728.841Strongly Suitable149216.671Strongly Suitable114623.924Strongly Suitable4602.755
NATURGY ENERGY GROUP SA 2022Marginally Suitable1.820.40Strongly Suitable43125.162Marginally Suitable160940.667Strongly Suitable163410.631Strongly Suitable82516.441Strongly Suitable3478.988Strongly Suitable63115.787Marginally Suitable3765.106Strongly Suitable102526.659Strongly Suitable132914.866Strongly Suitable98619.903Strongly Suitable4233.128
TenneT Holding B.V. 2022Strongly Suitable1.820.40Strongly Suitable335103.417Strongly Suitable117327.127Strongly Suitable252415.874Strongly Suitable68910.798Strongly Suitable41813.313Strongly Suitable56914.196Marginally Suitable5415.334Strongly Suitable105629.191Marginally Suitable172520.158Strongly Suitable149417.051Strongly Suitable4382.478
VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT 2022Strongly Suitable1.910.30Strongly Suitable56029.481Strongly Suitable136145.242Strongly Suitable128312.799Strongly Suitable6659.591Strongly Suitable41013.789Strongly Suitable62814.005Marginally Suitable3083.537Strongly Suitable94524.529Strongly Suitable150017.059Strongly Suitable130313.967Strongly Suitable4182.827
ØRSTED A/S 2022Strongly Suitable2.000.00Strongly Suitable65656.976Strongly Suitable142958.31Strongly Suitable238514.57Strongly Suitable102817.216Strongly Suitable34723.28Strongly Suitable67214.664Strongly Suitable2723.728Strongly Suitable110929.304Strongly Suitable170019.638Strongly Suitable100611.333Strongly Suitable4452.818
ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE 2022Strongly Suitable1.820.40Strongly Suitable112535.511Strongly Suitable153364.824Strongly Suitable314614.508Strongly Suitable81213.531Strongly Suitable47312.103Strongly Suitable63015.409Marginally Suitable5275.24Strongly Suitable112329.718Marginally Suitable152117.134Strongly Suitable118115.511Strongly Suitable4763.757
ERG S.P.A. 2022Marginally Suitable0.820.60Not Suitable68228.741Marginally Suitable192957.987Marginally Suitable447321.69Marginally Suitable166319.833Marginally Suitable59418.497Marginally Suitable59912.643Marginally Suitable5234.39Marginally Suitable123531.849Not Suitable123614.099Not Suitable211020.589Strongly Suitable4652.694
Acciona SA 2022Marginally Suitable0.730.47Not Suitable43610.804Marginally Suitable123143.596Marginally Suitable515922.771Marginally Suitable111114.483Marginally Suitable40710.492Marginally Suitable90320.19Marginally Suitable4254.114Marginally Suitable102625.594Not Suitable198721.849Not Suitable343132.75Marginally Suitable4192.761
Fortum Oyj 2022Not Suitable0.730.47Not Suitable46142.516Marginally Suitable168148.956Marginally Suitable306824.363Marginally Suitable167819.922Marginally Suitable52412.692Marginally Suitable67415.162Marginally Suitable3284.075Marginally Suitable132730.288Marginally Suitable170419.219Not Suitable149515.687Not Suitable4726.042
VERBUND AG 2022Marginally Suitable1.000.77Not Suitable68933.56Marginally Suitable198173.229Strongly Suitable203113.986Strongly Suitable101711.665Strongly Suitable39312.514Not Suitable46912.587Marginally Suitable3953.983Marginally Suitable96626.171Marginally Suitable177320.634Not Suitable140919.122Marginally Suitable5173.383
ITALGAS S.P.A. 2022Marginally Suitable1.180.60Strongly Suitable43124.719Marginally Suitable148967.409Marginally Suitable321619.704Marginally Suitable147219.06Marginally Suitable52614.612Marginally Suitable61515.317Marginally Suitable5325.263Strongly Suitable131135.994Marginally Suitable124014.442Not Suitable368439.899Strongly Suitable5042.828
ACEA S.P.A. 2022Marginally Suitable1.000.63Marginally Suitable1084103.48Marginally Suitable1707106.576Strongly Suitable270118.362Strongly Suitable158623.765Marginally Suitable57416.309Marginally Suitable60113.837Marginally Suitable3123.624Marginally Suitable106826.036Not Suitable165617.208Not Suitable251629.236Marginally Suitable4822.813
REN - REDES ENERGÉTICAS NACIONAIS, SGPS, S.A. 2022Marginally Suitable0.910.30Marginally Suitable60541.986Marginally Suitable198030.678Marginally Suitable488122.254Marginally Suitable107212.719Marginally Suitable46011.831Marginally Suitable433291.834Marginally Suitable1552.197Marginally Suitable111928.594Marginally Suitable143717.365Not Suitable192720.773Marginally Suitable4692.512
HERA S.P.A. 2022Marginally Suitable1.180.40Marginally Suitable114278.569Marginally Suitable131950.785Strongly Suitable268916.928Strongly Suitable90812.407Marginally Suitable49814.312Marginally Suitable43413.201Marginally Suitable4604.559Marginally Suitable128333.173Marginally Suitable147915.781Marginally Suitable294331.16Marginally Suitable5703.084
VINCI 2022Not Suitable0.730.47Not Suitable56928.392Marginally Suitable156734.349Marginally Suitable215911.38Marginally Suitable136117.025Marginally Suitable48316.811Marginally Suitable51911.121Marginally Suitable4064.419Marginally Suitable112130.897Marginally Suitable176419.786Not Suitable117917.95Not Suitable5022.854
BOUYGUES 2022Not Suitable0.820.40Marginally Suitable90129.958Marginally Suitable122740.167Marginally Suitable261118.755Marginally Suitable158426.546Marginally Suitable50212.547Marginally Suitable56912.38Marginally Suitable5314.364Marginally Suitable110129.26Not Suitable156217.698Not Suitable313630.502Marginally Suitable5323.235
FERROVIAL SA 2022Not Suitable0.820.60Marginally Suitable69528.844Not Suitable127298.984Marginally Suitable370527.442Marginally Suitable106417.564Marginally Suitable50117.796Marginally Suitable63815.367Marginally Suitable2523.841Strongly Suitable122029.534Not Suitable181519.897Not Suitable387334.169Marginally Suitable5553.227
FailuresCorrectAlmostC+AMean Absolute ErrorMean Bias ErrorRoot Mean Squared ErrorTime (total)Time (average)Time (std. dev.)Cost (total)Cost (average)Cost (std. dev.)
DeepSeek-V4-Pro0177240.290.040.541039.2943.3031.101.380.060.01
Kimi K2.60213240.120.120.351303.7954.3222.760.880.040.01
MiniMax M2.70168240.330.330.58417.1517.386.420.310.010.00
Qwen 3.6 Plus0168240.330.330.58371.1515.464.380.540.020.00
GLM 5.10186240.250.250.50333.8213.913.141.140.050.01
GPT-5.50177240.290.210.54660.6727.5356.904.240.180.03
GPT-5 nano0159240.380.040.61102.514.271.140.040.000.00
Claude Opus 4.60176230.330.330.65695.9629.002.944.920.200.03
Claude Haiku 4.501410240.42-0.080.65427.6017.823.011.040.040.01
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview0177240.29-0.210.54575.2123.9712.412.360.100.02
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite Preview0186240.250.250.5072.053.000.730.240.010.00

q3: Size

ground truthLLM averageLLM std. dev.DeepSeek-V4-ProOut tokensTimeKimi K2.6Out tokensTimeMiniMax M2.7Out tokensTimeQwen 3.6 PlusOut tokensTimeGLM 5.1Out tokensTimeGPT-5.5Out tokensTimeGPT-5 nanoOut tokensTimeClaude Opus 4.6Out tokensTimeClaude Haiku 4.5Out tokensTimeGemini 3.1 Pro PreviewOut tokensTimeGemini 3.1 Flash-Lite PreviewOut tokensTime
ENEL - SPA 20220.03750.080.027.5%94829.4967.5%161152.3237.5%475955.3427.5%187362.40311.25%103621.2067.5%80817.9713.75%182.51411.25%139935.4477.5%156617.2567.5%382336.9917.5%6813.493
ENI S.P.A. 20220.0750.060.043.75%65423.7377.5%105135.63411.25%507261.3990%157044.5930%77620.3257.5%86419.95411.25%7517.5627.5%131034.9777.5%178419.9387.5%276625.3693.75%4903.238
A2A ENERGIA S.P.A. 20220.0750.070.030%62313.9057.5%315378.6147.5%452439.1313.75%283852.44611.25%87919.9587.5%57513.3417.5%181.1627.5%164838.937.5%165517.3147.5%438144.87.5%5772.99
"TERNA - RETE ELETTRICA NAZIONALE SOCIETA' PER AZIONI" (IN FORMA ABBREVIATA "TERNA S.P.A.") 20220.0750.070.027.5%66326.437.5%126825.7617.5%796886.8757.5%157437.0053.75%90424.2857.5%62915.33711.25%5386.0857.5%158840.1837.5%220024.387.5%237521.4537.5%5233.532
REDEIA CORPORACION SA 20220.0750.020.030%65720.9780%181952.9670%920495.2390%150450.0867.5%91022.0667.5%57114.0633.75%181.6750%137435.5813.75%171018.3973.75%305828.9340%4382.696
EDP, S.A. 20220.0750.090.030%71130.5197.5%151232.00411.25%743455.76211.25%240739.1097.5%86019.97311.25%60215.1017.5%181.23811.25%148237.9787.5%194320.35211.25%277825.03111.25%5433.669
ENGIE 20220.03750.070.0211.25%64231.7477.5%119928.6437.5%606270.2077.5%189344.7417.5%100133.6157.5%66918.1927.5%181.3967.5%148038.6883.75%191119.8083.75%285627.0767.5%5573.384
IBERDROLA SA 20220.03750.070.027.5%62118.3597.5%137528.9147.5%770061.9793.75%201249.5657.5%82920.067.5%49012.3917.5%8927.86311.25%151439.7757.5%198821.2017.5%289827.0667.5%6974.504
NATURGY ENERGY GROUP SA 20220.03750.070.0311.25%110936.9547.5%140936.4330%11139131.7497.5%175033.7677.5%85819.4527.5%52112.2097.5%6567.413.75%134934.6687.5%201721.597.5%341134.5567.5%5463.106
TenneT Holding B.V. 20220.0750.110.0215%114049.53811.25%192045.07611.25%459542.23411.25%265645.45311.25%78416.22315%64814.2167.5%2723.17711.25%160541.53111.25%205224.0427.5%392334.02411.25%5053.209
VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT 20220.03750.100.033.75%66522.90611.25%208264.10811.25%14523139.46211.25%176532.6127.5%90922.87911.25%67616.69411.25%46726.4611.25%144438.3137.5%135714.8917.5%371838.12111.25%6623.552
ØRSTED A/S 20220.11250.090.047.5%57113.8817.5%262468.79611.25%956370.40111.25%180330.2830%76517.1717.5%67616.1511.25%6876.9515%148638.0913.75%238523.85611.25%320827.56711.25%4833.208
ELECTRICITE DE FRANCE 20220.0750.130.0311.25%62335.92615%160644.58711.25%8759102.62515%319666.93715%83126.0315%72416.80511.25%4093.99415%161841.1347.5%158518.79615%260526.08315%4492.995
ERG S.P.A. 20220.0750.040.040%156424.4530%146148.07811.25%12717114.8547.5%191829.0467.5%87228.883.75%47111.1897.5%4735.1253.75%143639.9337.5%174519.5480%118015.0550%5133.371
Acciona SA 20220.03750.040.030%138940.7910%143739.8660%646245.327.5%375657.0883.75%68717.2783.75%59413.013.75%181.2137.5%170241.8057.5%240225.4990%127814.1557.5%4662.818
Fortum Oyj 20220.00.050.050%46018.9670%95831.0497.5%430051.9847.5%123329.00515%74820.130%50712.5730%161.527.5%150837.0867.5%164418.8450%9409.6477.5%5193.074
VERBUND AG 20220.03750.020.030%83138.4430%109230.2950%526245.640%119323.4310%79718.1670%58015.2027.5%5836.5343.75%143237.2357.5%209623.5250%132111.5640%5507.035
ITALGAS S.P.A. 20220.03750.050.040%58216.6810%120331.52811.25%529047.3467.5%203138.487.5%67518.8993.75%54414.954FAIL6716.6147.5%160942.2537.5%176719.3360%132613.8837.5%5443.275
ACEA S.P.A. 20220.0750.050.040%119438.1790%142061.8611.25%738266.3727.5%161532.8067.5%98221.8573.75%54913.9650%161.037.5%150437.9517.5%179618.3240%78410.0477.5%5533.344
REN - REDES ENERGÉTICAS NACIONAIS, SGPS, S.A. 20220.11250.040.040%62246.6790%120632.7017.5%745859.0760%197634.697.5%82922.2580%51812.46411.25%5825.7017.5%151736.4670%170319.6480%145114.8777.5%5673.3
HERA S.P.A. 20220.03750.060.040%64115.6150%137245.31311.25%803257.9867.5%241641.7657.5%96025.3163.75%48211.9711.25%5795.2937.5%145535.7197.5%176818.9480%134513.6397.5%5873.407
VINCI 20220.00.030.030%66943.1630%135742.5320%401530.6793.75%258747.4357.5%76627.3380%52512.1467.5%2323.0523.75%149038.5463.75%130415.1960%126214.7087.5%5163.109
BOUYGUES 20220.00.060.040%52522.4813.75%153129.81411.25%1194196.0657.5%110820.6677.5%74823.3453.75%60314.0757.5%5075.14211.25%167543.4567.5%174419.6760%130715.3587.5%6033.234
FERROVIAL SA 20220.00.060.050%103754.0340%134240.98511.25%8861123.787.5%145122.41311.25%63315.8443.75%63016.3077.5%4134.2947.5%136536.6067.5%187322.0290%125120.28911.25%5613.428
FailuresCorrectAlmostC+AMean Absolute ErrorMean Bias ErrorRoot Mean Squared ErrorTime (total)Time (average)Time (std. dev.)Cost (total)Cost (average)Cost (std. dev.)
DeepSeek-V4-Pro069150.044-0.0160.054713.8629.7411.761.400.060.01
Kimi K2.60711180.037-0.0060.0481027.8842.8314.160.880.040.01
MiniMax M2.70413170.0450.0270.0551751.5172.9831.020.440.020.00
Qwen 3.6 Plus0511160.0440.0160.053965.8340.2412.290.600.030.00
GLM 5.10511160.0480.0230.062522.5621.774.231.170.050.01
GPT-5.50911200.0310.0090.043350.2814.592.264.250.180.03
GPT-5 nano198170.0330.0230.044123.005.135.110.040.000.00
Claude Opus 4.60610160.0420.0300.052922.3538.432.445.140.210.03
Claude Haiku 4.50811190.0340.0160.046482.3920.102.761.070.040.01
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview01010200.030-0.0080.043550.2922.939.902.470.100.02
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite Preview0412160.0450.0230.05482.973.460.840.240.010.00

q4: priority

Ground truth prioritiesGround truth orderLLM dist averageLLM dist std. dev.DeepSeek-V4-ProDistanceOut tokensTimeKimi K2.6DistanceOut tokensTimeMiniMax M2.7DistanceOut tokensTimeQwen 3.6 PlusDistanceOut tokensTimeGLM 5.1DistanceOut tokensTimeGPT-5.5DistanceOut tokensTimeGPT-5 nanoDistanceOut tokensTimeClaude Opus 4.6DistanceOut tokensTimeClaude Haiku 4.5DistanceOut tokensTimeGemini 3.1 Pro PreviewDistanceOut tokensTimeGemini 3.1 Flash-Lite PreviewDistanceOut tokensTime
ELECTRIC - "TERNA - - IBERDROL 202211, 8, 3C,B,A1.820.98A,B,C3112456.978A,C,B2141130.837A,B,C38335143.533B,C,A1129015.608B,A,C2125125.662B,C,A1116219.158A,B,C31716.489A,C,B2123632.826B,C,A1147016.665A,C,B2283425.433C,B,A05413.307
ENI S.P. - TenneT H - REDEIA C 202212, 7, 4C,B,A1.270.65B,C,A168427.403C,A,B1148030.716B,C,A1437149.228B,C,A1136917.692B,A,C269021.989B,C,A1139723.493A,B,C3172.166B,C,A1146040.157B,C,A1148516.536B,C,A1457238.074B,C,A15763.431
VEOLIA E - ELECTRIC - REDEIA C 2022 5, 11, 4C,A,B2.091.14A,C,B193680.943B,A,C3150225.329A,C,B1514679.074A,C,B1129315.674B,A,C371222.018A,B,C278315.972B,A,C3171.762B,A,C3146239.949C,A,B0172618.814B,A,C3389131.315B,A,C35253.213
"TERNA - - A2A ENER - REDEIA C 2022 8, 9, 4C,A,B1.090.70A,C,B167120.122C,A,B0113921.782A,C,B1280935.457A,C,B1119313.323A,C,B188517.033A,C,B159111.294A,B,C2171.357A,B,C2149944.654C,A,B0123313.92B,C,A217433144.376A,C,B15123.207
A2A ENER - ENEL - S - "TERNA - 2022 9, 1, 8B,C,A1.091.04A,C,B372956.106A,B,C2176334.209B,C,A0481266.775B,C,A0130018.074C,B,A183325.915B,C,A0104315.437B,A,C1171.668A,B,C2150842.098C,A,B2213822.889B,C,A0118812.307C,B,A15143.369
EDP, S.A - ELECTRIC - VEOLIA E 2022 2, 11, 5A,C,B1.550.93B,A,C270873.411C,A,B1182034.701B,A,C2547462.884A,B,C1258534.509A,C,B085430.015C,B,A2117118.025B,A,C2172.147C,B,A2142344.845A,C,B0144414.734B,C,A3337531.251B,A,C25313.077
EDP, S.A - A2A ENER - TenneT H 2022 2, 9, 7A,C,B1.000.00C,A,B180646.457C,A,B1163427.196C,A,B1715676.653C,A,B1181024.913C,A,B173220.383C,A,B187914.17C,A,B12803.487C,A,B1134633.811A,B,C1156216.722C,A,B1356030.368C,A,B14953.629
ØRSTED A - ENEL - S - A2A ENER 2022 6, 1, 9B,A,C0.820.60A,B,C163444.66A,B,C1159338.537B,A,C08705245.887A,B,C1161222.4A,B,C185917.819A,B,C1116417.703C,B,A2171.813A,B,C1142133.347A,B,C1176817.43B,A,C0670454.288B,A,C05303.338
REDEIA C - ELECTRIC - "TERNA - 2022 4, 11, 8A,C,B1.550.82C,A,B179952.182C,A,B1201227.8C,A,B1443369.808C,A,B1278333.668C,A,B179027.404C,A,B182014.212C,A,B1171.759B,C,A3108126.647B,A,C2141715.445B,C,A3274626.43B,A,C25223.206
ENEL - S - ELECTRIC - VEOLIA E 2022 1, 11, 5A,C,B0.820.87B,A,C285229.602A,C,B0139232.527B,A,C27214136.586A,C,B0124520.351A,B,C183228.155A,B,C1133324.645A,B,C12613.706A,C,B0175044.179A,C,B0135816.056B,A,C2379433.275A,C,B04973.552
TenneT H - ENI S.P. - ENEL - S 2022 7, 12, 1C,A,B1.180.75B,A,C375253.371A,C,B1137934.049A,C,B1565172.049A,C,B1182325.446A,C,B185925.996C,A,B0130419.014A,B,C2171.968A,C,B1137936.239C,B,A1156316.633A,C,B1612855.888A,C,B16224.02
TenneT H - REDEIA C - ENGIE 2022 7, 4, 10B,A,C1.360.67A,B,C150954.233A,C,B2175830.02A,B,C17488101.265A,B,C1165619.146A,B,C193324.134A,C,B2104516.099A,B,C1171.285A,C,B2134536.031B,A,C0140015.374A,C,B2261426.019A,C,B25663.829
FailuresAverage DistanceTime (total)Time (average)Time (std. dev.)Cost (total)Cost (average)Cost (std. dev.)
DeepSeek-V4-Pro01.67595.4749.6217.801.180.100.02
Kimi K2.601.25367.7030.644.610.710.060.01
MiniMax M2.701.171139.2094.9357.300.280.020.00
Qwen 3.6 Plus00.83260.8021.736.830.500.040.01
GLM 5.101.25286.5223.884.080.990.080.01
GPT-5.501.08209.2217.443.833.670.310.06
GPT-5 nano01.8339.613.304.220.030.000.00
Claude Opus 4.601.67454.7837.905.694.150.350.06
Claude Haiku 4.500.75201.2216.772.310.840.070.01
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview01.67509.0242.4234.292.420.200.05
Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite Preview01.1741.183.430.280.220.020.00