To estimate the credit trend for EDP, S.A., we follow the S&P methodology for the "Regulated Utilities" and "Unregulated Power and Gas" industries, focusing on consolidated financial metrics. ### Step 1: Industry Identification EDP, S.A. is an integrated energy company (generation, transmission, distribution, and supply). We treat this as an integrated utility/power company. ### Steps 2–6: 2021 Financial Calculations * **Adjusted EBITDA (2021):** * Operating Profit (Profit Before Financial/Income/CESE): 1,930,785,000 * (+) Depreciation, Amortization, and Impairment: 1,731,755,000 * (+) Provisions Expenses: 60,510,000 * (-) Joint Ventures (Equity Method): 108,106,000 * **Adjusted EBITDA (2021) ≈ 3,614,944,000 EUR** * **FFO (2021):** * FFO = Adj EBITDA - Cash Interest - Cash Taxes * Cash Interest (Finance Costs): 875,816,000 * Cash Taxes (Income Tax Expense): 261,892,000 * **FFO (2021) = 3,614,944,000 - 875,816,000 - 261,892,000 = 2,477,236,000 EUR** * **Adjusted Debt (2021):** * Longterm Borrowings: 15,299,588,000 * Current Borrowings: 1,518,348,000 * (-) Cash and Cash Equivalents: 3,222,409,000 * **Adjusted Debt (2021) = 13,595,527,000 EUR** * **Ratios (2021):** * Adj. Debt / Adj. EBITDA = 13.596 / 3.615 ≈ **3.76x** * FFO / Adj. Debt = 2.477 / 13.596 ≈ **0.182** ### Steps 7–11: 2022 Financial Calculations * **Adjusted EBITDA (2022):** * Operating Profit: 2,529,993,000 * (+) Depreciation/Amortization: 1,979,007,000 * (+) Provisions Expenses: 14,539,000 * (-) Joint Ventures: 239,429,000 * **Adjusted EBITDA (2022) ≈ 4,284,110,000 EUR** * **FFO (2022):** * Finance Costs: 1,753,220,000 * Income Tax Expense: 398,490,000 * **FFO (2022) = 4,284,110,000 - 1,753,220,000 - 398,490,000 = 2,132,400,000 EUR** * **Adjusted Debt (2022):** * Longterm Borrowings: 15,782,604,000 * Current Borrowings: 4,239,869,000 * (-) Cash and Cash Equivalents: 4,900,205,000 * **Adjusted Debt (2022) = 15,122,268,000 EUR** * **Ratios (2022):** * Adj. Debt / Adj. EBITDA = 15.122 / 4.284 ≈ **3.53x** * FFO / Adj. Debt = 2.132 / 15.122 ≈ **0.141** ### Step 12: Trend Classification * **Signal 1 (Leverage):** 3.53x - 3.76x = -0.23x. (Threshold: ≤ -0.2x is **Improving**). * **Signal 2 (Coverage):** 0.141 - 0.182 = -0.041. (Threshold: ≤ -0.03 is **Deteriorating**). Reasoning: While leverage improved significantly due to higher EBITDA and increased cash holdings, the FFO coverage of debt deteriorated substantially (by 4.1 percentage points) primarily due to a doubling of finance costs in 2022. Given the conservative bias for conflicting signals and the material impact of rising interest rates on FFO in this industry, the negative trend in cash flow coverage is the more prudent indicator. Deteriorating