I'll work through this step-by-step, first identifying the relevant industry for ERG S.P.A., then calculating the required metrics. ## Step 1: Identify Relevant Industry for ERG S.P.A. ERG S.p.A. is an Italian renewable energy company. Looking at the data: - Revenue from energy operations - Service concession rights (€956M in 2023, €682M in 2022) - Property, plant and equipment for renewable generation (€2.1B) - Operations in Italy, France, Germany, UK, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Spain This fits best in the **Unregulated Power and Gas** sector, specifically as a **renewable generation company**. ERG is primarily a renewable energy generator (wind, solar) with long-term contracts/PPAs but also merchant exposure. It's not a regulated utility (no rate-base regulation), not E&P (no oil/gas exploration), and not transportation infrastructure. Key characteristics for unregulated power and gas: - Renewable generation with PPAs and some merchant exposure - Multiple geographic markets - Long-term contractual arrangements ## Step 2: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_EBITDA For unregulated power and gas, we use EBITDA as key indicator. Let me reconstruct: From the data: - "Profit Loss From Operating Activities Before Interest Taxes Depreciation And Amortisation Expense" 2021: €396,680,000 This is essentially EBITDA. Let me verify by checking: - Operating profit before depreciation and amortization = EBITDA For S&P adjustments in unregulated power and gas: - Add back leases (operating lease expense already in EBITDA, but we need to check if IFRS 16 was applied) - Nonrecurring items: impairment losses, reversals From the data 2021: - Impairment Loss Recognised In Profit Or Loss Trade Receivables: €8,420,000 (loss) - Impairment Loss Reversal Of Impairment Loss Recognised In Profit Or Loss Intangible Assets And Property Plant And Equipment: €22,016,000 (reversal/gain) For unregulated power and gas, S&P makes adjustments for long-term PPAs (debt-like), but we don't have explicit PPA adjustment data. Let me focus on what we can calculate. Baseline EBITDA 2021: €396,680,000 Adjustments: - Add: Impairment loss on trade receivables (nonrecurring loss): +€8,420,000 - Less: Impairment reversal (nonrecurring gain): -€22,016,000 Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = 396,680,000 + 8,420,000 - 22,016,000 = **€383,084,000** Wait - let me reconsider. The reversal is already in the EBITDA figure. Let me check if these are below EBITDA line. Looking at the structure: "Profit Loss From Operating Activities Before Interest Taxes Depreciation And Amortisation Expense" - this is before D&A, so it's EBITDA. The impairment items are likely already reflected in operating profit/EBITDA. Actually, looking more carefully: The impairment loss on trade receivables and the reversal on PP&E would affect operating profit. Since EBITDA is "before" depreciation and amortization, but these impairment items are part of operating activities. Let me check: "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" 2021: €168,370,000 "Profit Loss From Operating Activities Before Interest Taxes Depreciation And Amortisation Expense" 2021: €396,680,000 Difference: 396,680,000 - 168,370,000 = 228,310,000 This should equal D&A minus impairment reversal: - Amortisation: 50,110,000 - Depreciation: 156,184,000 - Impairment reversal: -22,016,000 - Total: 50,110,000 + 156,184,000 - 22,016,000 = 184,278,000 Hmm, doesn't match. Let me check: "Adjustments For Depreciation And Amortisation Expense And Impairment Loss Reversal Of Impairment Loss Recognised In Profit Or Loss Non Current Assets" 2021: €228,310,000 Yes! So: 50,110,000 + 156,184,000 + 22,016,000 = 228,310,000? No wait, 50,110 + 156,184 = 206,294; plus 22,016 = 228,310. Yes! So the reversal is ADDED back (subtracted from expenses), meaning it increased EBITDA. For S&P purposes, we want to normalize. The impairment reversal of €22,016,000 is nonrecurring (gain). The impairment loss on trade receivables of €8,420,000 is a nonrecurring loss. But wait - the trade receivables impairment: where is it? Looking at "Impairment Loss Recognised In Profit Or Loss Trade Receivables" 2021: 8,420,000. This is likely in operating expenses, so it reduced EBITDA. For S&P Adjusted EBITDA: - Start with reported EBITDA: €396,680,000 - Add back nonrecurring losses: +€8,420,000 (impairment of trade receivables) - Subtract nonrecurring gains: -€22,016,000 (impairment reversal on PP&E) Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = 396,680,000 + 8,420,000 - 22,016,000 = **€383,084,000** Actually, let me reconsider if the impairment reversal is already in EBITDA. Looking at the cash flow statement adjustments: "Adjustments For Impairment Loss Reversal Of Impairment Loss Recognised In Profit Or Loss Current Assets" 2021: 8,442,000 (close to 8,420,000, likely rounding). And "Adjustments For Depreciation And Amortisation Expense And Impairment Loss Reversal...Non Current Assets" 2021: 228,310,000 includes the reversal. So EBITDA includes the reversal benefit. For normalization, S&P would: - Remove the nonrecurring reversal gain - Add back the nonrecurring impairment loss Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = 396,680,000 + 8,420,000 - 22,016,000 = **€383,084,000** ## Step 3: Estimate 2021 FFO FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes From data 2021: - "Finance Costs" 2021: €218,758,000 (this is total finance costs, not necessarily cash) - "Adjustments For Finance Costs" in cash flow: €51,052,000 (this is the non-cash portion added back) - So cash interest = 218,758,000 - 51,052,000 = €167,706,000? Wait, let me check: "Finance Income Cost" 2021: -50,964,000 (net finance cost) "Finance Income" 2021: 167,793,000 "Finance Costs" 2021: 218,758,000 Net: 167,793 - 218,758 = -50,965 ≈ -50,964 ✓ For cash interest, looking at cash flow: "Adjustments For Finance Costs" 2021: 51,052,000. This suggests adding back non-cash finance costs to get to operating cash flow. Actually, in S&P methodology, cash interest paid is typically found in financing activities. Looking at "Interest Paid Classified As Financing Activities" 2021: €32,399,000. But wait - this seems low. Let me check if there's also interest in operating activities. Looking through the data... I don't see separate interest paid in operating activities. For S&P FFO: FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes Cash taxes: "Income Taxes Paid Classified As Operating Activities" 2021: €38,010,000 But we also have "Income Tax Expense Continuing Operations" 2021: €31,981,000 (accrual) For cash interest, let me use the financing activities figure: €32,399,000. But this seems inconsistent with total finance costs of €218M. Actually, looking more carefully: "Adjustments For Finance Costs" 2021: 51,052,000 in operating cash flow. This is added back, meaning it was subtracted in profit. So the cash flow from operations before working capital includes this add-back. The cash interest paid in financing activities is €32,399,000. But total finance costs are €218,758,000. The difference could be: - Capitalized interest - Non-cash interest (accretion, fair value changes) - Interest received (finance income) Actually, for S&P purposes, we need "cash interest paid on debt." Let me look for a better proxy. From cash flow: "Adjustments For Finance Costs" 2021: 51,052,000. If this represents non-cash finance costs added back, then cash finance costs = 218,758,000 - 51,052,000 = 167,706,000? But then we also have finance income of 167,793,000. Hmm, this is getting complex. Let me try a different approach. S&P typically uses "Funds From Operations" which starts from net income and adds back non-cash items. Actually, let me use: FFO = Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities + cash_interest_paid + cash_taxes_paid (roughly) From data 2021: "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" 2021: €177,067,000 "Interest Paid Classified As Financing Activities" 2021: 32,399,000 "Income Taxes Paid Classified As Operating Activities" 2021: 38,010,000 But wait, if taxes paid are IN operating activities, then: FFO = Operating Cash Flow + Interest Paid (financing) - Interest Received? Standard S&P FFO = Net income + D&A + deferred taxes + other non-cash items - working capital changes... no wait, FFO is before working capital changes. Actually, from the cash flow statement: "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" 2021: €415,671,000 This is essentially EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes (with some other items). Let me verify: 616,360,000 (2022) vs 415,671,000 (2021) This line is: "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" For 2021: 415,671,000. This should approximate FFO. But S&P FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes Let me calculate: If Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = 383,084,000, and FFO should be roughly 415,671,000 from the cash flow... these don't match because the cash flow line includes other items. Looking at the cash flow build: "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" 2021: 415,671,000 This includes: - Operating profit adjustments - D&A, impairments, etc. - Finance costs adjustment (51,052,000) - Income tax expense adjustment (31,980,000) - Other adjustments Actually, this line is essentially: Net income + non-cash items - working capital... no, it's BEFORE working capital. Let me recalculate FFO properly. S&P FFO = Net income + depreciation + amortization + deferred taxes + other non-cash charges - extraordinary gains + interest expense - interest income... no, that's not right either. Standard S&P FFO formula: FFO = Funds from operations = Net income from continuing operations + depreciation & amortization + deferred income taxes + other non-cash items Or more practically for utility-like companies: FFO = EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes Let me use: FFO = "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" - this is closest to S&P's FFO concept. For 2021: €415,671,000 But this includes working capital? No, it's "Before Changes In Working Capital." So this IS essentially FFO. Wait, but then I need to check if this includes interest and taxes properly. Looking at the build: - Starts with profit before tax - Adds back D&A, impairments, finance costs, etc. - Subtracts income tax expense (accrual) Hmm, but "Income Tax Expense" is added back (as non-cash), and then "Income Taxes Paid" is subtracted later in operating activities. Let me trace through more carefully. The line "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" 2021: 415,671,000 From the adjustments listed, this includes adding back: - D&A and impairment reversal: 228,310,000 - Increase in provisions: 18,884,000 - Decrease in provisions: -5,126,000 - Impairment loss current assets: 8,442,000 - Undistributed profits equity method: 659,000 - Employee benefits: 274,000 - Finance costs: 51,052,000 - Income tax expense: 31,980,000 - Other non-cash items: -91,936,000 Plus profit before tax: 117,942,000? Let me check: 117,942 + 228,310 + 18,884 - 5,126 + 8,442 + 659 + 274 + 51,052 + 31,980 - 91,936 = 360,481. Not matching 415,671. Actually, I think "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" starts from operating profit, not profit before tax. Let me use "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" 2021: 168,370,000 Add: D&A and impairment reversal: 228,310,000 Add: Other non-cash adjustments net: ? Actually, looking at the components, the 415,671,000 seems to be the right FFO proxy. For S&P methodology consistency, let me use: FFO 2021 = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes But I need to identify cash interest and cash taxes. From the cash flow: - "Income Taxes Paid Classified As Operating Activities" 2021: 38,010,000 - For interest, "Interest Paid Classified As Financing Activities" 2021: 32,399,000 But wait - is there also interest paid in operating activities? Looking... I don't see it explicitly. Actually, in many European GAAP/IFRS statements, interest paid can be in operating or financing activities. Here it seems to be in financing activities. For S&P FFO, we want: EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes (both cash interest and cash taxes paid) If cash interest is 32,399,000 and cash taxes is 38,010,000: FFO = 383,084,000 - 32,399,000 - 38,010,000 = 312,675,000 But this doesn't match 415,671,000. The difference suggests my Adjusted_EBITDA or cash interest figure is wrong. Let me reconsider. The "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" of 415,671,000 is likely the better FFO proxy, as it represents operating cash before working capital changes. Actually, standard S&P FFO = Net income + D&A + deferred taxes + other non-cash - extraordinary items. Let me try: Net income 2021: 174,450,000 (total profit loss) Add: D&A: 50,110 + 156,184 = 206,294,000 Less: Impairment reversal: -22,016,000 (extraordinary/non-operating) Add: Income tax expense: 31,981,000 Less: Finance income: -167,793,000 Add: Finance costs: 218,758,000 Add: Other non-cash: ? This is getting messy with discontinued operations. Let me look at continuing operations: "Profit Loss From Continuing Operations" 2021: 85,962,000 Actually, for simplicity and consistency with S&P practice, let me use: FFO = "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" = **€415,671,000 for 2021** This is the standard proxy when detailed breakdown isn't available, and it's commonly used by S&P. ## Step 4: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_Debt Adjusted_Debt = reported_debt + leases + pension_deficit + guarantees + hybrid_debt_portion + other_debt_like_items - eligible_cash From balance sheet 2022-01-01 (end of 2021): - "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" 2022-01-01: 2,064,088,000 (long-term debt) - "Other Current Financial Liabilities" 2022-01-01: 1,342,688,000 (short-term debt) - "Noncurrent Lease Liabilities" 2022-01-01: 122,663,000 - "Current Lease Liabilities" 2022-01-01: 6,282,000 - "Noncurrent Financial Liabilities At Fair Value Through Profit Or Loss" 2022-01-01: 44,763,000 Total reported debt-like: 2,064,088 + 1,342,688 + 122,663 + 6,282 + 44,763 = 3,580,484,000 But wait, we need to check what's in "Other Current Financial Liabilities" - this may include more than just debt. Also: "Current Financial Liabilities At Fair Value Through Profit Or Loss" 2022-01-01: 170,857,000 Let me add this: 3,580,484 + 170,857 = 3,751,341,000 Pension deficit: "Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits" 2022-01-01: 4,289,000 Cash: "Cash And Cash Equivalents" 2022-01-01: 860,352,000 For S&P, eligible cash is typically 75% of cash if needed for operations, or full cash if truly excess. Let me be conservative and use 75% of cash as eligible: 0.75 × 860,352,000 = 645,264,000 Or more standard S&P practice: subtract most cash, but leave some minimum. Let me use full cash as eligible for simplicity (conservative): 860,352,000 Actually, S&P typically deducts "available cash" which is cash and liquid investments less any minimum operating cash. For a company of this size, minimum operating cash might be €50-100M. Let me use 75% of cash as available. Adjusted_Debt 2021 = 3,751,341,000 + 4,289,000 + 122,663,000 + 6,282,000 - 645,264,000 Wait, I already included leases in the debt-like items. Let me reorganize: Reported debt: - Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 2,064,088 - Other Current Financial Liabilities: 1,342,688 - Noncurrent Financial Liabilities at FVTPL: 44,763 - Current Financial Liabilities at FVTPL: 170,857 Subtotal: 3,622,396 Leases: - Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: 122,663 - Current Lease Liabilities: 6,282 Subtotal: 128,945 Pension deficit: 4,289 Total gross debt: 3,622,396 + 128,945 + 4,289 = 3,755,630 Less eligible cash (75%): 645,264 Adjusted_Debt 2021 = 3,755,630,000 - 645,264,000 = **€3,110,366,000** Hmm, but let me check if "Other Current Financial Liabilities" includes trade payables or other non-debt items. Looking at the data, there's also "Trade And Other Current Payables To Trade Suppliers" 2022-01-01: 254,374,000 which is separate. So "Other Current Financial Liabilities" of 1,342,688 is likely debt-like. Let me also check if there are derivatives/hedging items that should be excluded. The FVTPL items might include derivatives. For S&P, derivative liabilities that are economic hedges might be excluded, but this requires detailed knowledge. For simplicity, let me proceed with: Adjusted_Debt 2021 ≈ **€3,100,000,000** (rounded) or more precisely €3,110,366,000. Actually, let me recalculate more carefully. I need to check 2021 year-end vs 2022 year-end. The data shows: - "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" 2022-01-01: 2,064,088,000 (this is 2021 year-end) - "Other Current Financial Liabilities" 2022-01-01: 1,342,688,000 And for 2023-01-01 (2022 year-end): - "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" 2023-01-01: 1,751,255,000 - "Other Current Financial Liabilities" 2023-01-01: 389,716,000 So debt decreased significantly in 2022. Let me also check "Noncurrent Financial Liabilities At Fair Value Through Profit Or Loss" 2022-01-01: 44,763,000 vs 2023-01-01: -0.0 (essentially zero) And "Current Financial Liabilities At Fair Value Through Profit Or Loss" 2022-01-01: 170,857,000 vs 2023-01-01: 76,644,000 For 2021 year-end (2022-01-01): Adjusted_Debt = (2,064,088 + 1,342,688 + 44,763 + 170,857) + (122,663 + 6,282) + 4,289 - 0.75×860,352 = 3,622,396 + 128,945 + 4,289 - 645,264 = 3,110,366 Let me use **€3,110 million** or **€3,110,366,000** ## Step 5: Calculate 2021 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA = 3,110,366 / 383,084 = **8.12x** Wait, that seems high. Let me recheck. Actually, I think my Adjusted_EBITDA is too low or Adjusted_Debt is too high. Let me recheck EBITDA. "Profit Loss From Operating Activities Before Interest Taxes Depreciation And Amortisation Expense" 2021: 396,680,000 Is this really EBITDA? Let me verify with components: Revenue: 601,407 Other Income: 7,732 Less: Other Purchase Expense: 5,939 Less: Services Expense: 150,481 Less: Impairment Loss Trade Receivables: 8,420 Less: Employee Benefits: 47,619 Operating expenses before D&A = 5,939 + 150,481 + 8,420 + 47,619 = 212,459 Plus other adjustments... Actually, 601,407 + 7,732 - 212,459 = 396,680. Yes! This matches. So EBITDA = 396,680,000. My adjustment to 383,084 was removing the impairment reversal and adding impairment loss. But wait - the impairment reversal of 22,016 is on PP&E, which is BELOW EBITDA (it's part of D&A adjustment). Let me recheck. Looking at: "Impairment Loss Reversal Of Impairment Loss Recognised In Profit Or Loss Intangible Assets And Property Plant And Equipment" 2021: 22,016,000 This reversal - where is it in the P&L? It's likely part of operating profit, not in EBITDA. Actually, the line "Profit Loss From Operating Activities Before Interest Taxes Depreciation And Amortisation Expense" suggests it's BEFORE D&A, so the impairment reversal on PP&E would be in D&A, hence below this line. Wait, but then why is it in "Adjustments For Depreciation And Amortisation Expense And Impairment Loss Reversal" in the cash flow? Because it's added back to operating profit. Let me think again. The line "Profit Loss From Operating Activities Before Interest Taxes Depreciation And Amortisation Expense" = EBITDA. This is before D&A and impairment on fixed assets. The impairment on trade receivables (8,420) - this is an operating expense, so it's already in EBITDA (reducing it). The impairment reversal on PP&E (22,016) - this is part of D&A, so it's BELOW EBITDA. So my adjustment should be: - Add back impairment on trade receivables (nonrecurring operating loss): +8,420 - The PP&E impairment reversal is not in EBITDA, so no adjustment needed for EBITDA! Wait, but is the trade receivables impairment nonrecurring? Or is it normal credit risk provision? For S&P, recurring impairments on receivables are normal operations. Only large, one-time impairments are adjusted. Let me reconsider: maybe Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = reported EBITDA = **€396,680,000** Or if we normalize the trade receivables impairment: 396,680 + 8,420 = 405,100,000 Hmm, but 8.4M on 601M revenue is 1.4%, which could be normal provision. Let me use reported EBITDA for now: **€396,680,000** Then FFO proxy from cash flow: 415,671,000 Actually, let me recalculate FFO more carefully using S&P standard: FFO = Net income + D&A + deferred taxes + other non-cash - extraordinary gains/losses Or: FFO = EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes From cash flow statement, "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" 2021: 415,671,000 This includes: - Profit before tax: 117,942 - Add: D&A and impairment reversal: 228,310 - Add: provisions changes net: 18,884 - 5,126 = 13,758 - Add: impairment current assets: 8,442 - Add: equity method undistributed: 659 - Add: employee benefits: 274 - Add: finance costs: 51,052 - Add: income tax expense: 31,980 - Less: other non-cash: 91,936 Sum: 117,942 + 228,310 + 13,758 + 8,442 + 659 + 274 + 51,052 + 31,980 - 91,936 = 360,481 Doesn't equal 415,671. I'm missing something. Actually, I think "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" 168,370 is the starting point, not profit before tax. 168,370 + 228,310 + 13,758 + 8,442 + 659 + 274 + 51,052 + 31,980 - 91,936 = 410,909 Still not 415,671. Close but not exact. Difference of ~4.8M. Anyway, let me use 415,671 as the FFO proxy since it's the reported "before working capital" figure. For 2021: Adjusted_EBITDA = 396,680,000 (or 383,084 with adjustments - let me use 396,680 as base) FFO = 415,671,000 (from cash flow statement) Wait, but S&P FFO should be closer to: EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes = 396,680 - 32,399 - 38,010 = 326,271 This is much lower than 415,671. The difference is because 415,671 includes other items and uses accrual-based adjustments. Actually, I realize now: "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" is NOT FFO. It's closer to "CFO before working capital" which includes interest and taxes differently. Let me recalculate FFO properly for S&P: FFO = Funds from Operations = Net income + depreciation + amortization + deferred taxes + other non-cash items From 2021: Net income (total): 174,450 Add: D&A: 206,294 (50,110 + 156,184) Less: impairment reversal: -22,016 (this is a gain, not typical) Add: income tax expense: 31,981 Add: finance costs (accrual): 218,758 Less: finance income (accrual): -167,793 This gets to operating profit before working capital, not FFO. Standard S&P FFO for utilities/energy = EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes But we need to identify CASH interest and CASH taxes. From cash flow: "Income Taxes Paid Classified As Operating Activities" 2021: 38,010 "Interest Paid Classified As Financing Activities" 2021: 32,399 Are there also dividends received, interest received? "Finance Income" includes interest and dividends. For simplicity, let me use the S&P approximation: FFO = EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes + dividends received + interest received (if in operating activities) Actually, looking at the cash flow build, the 415,671 figure seems to be the best available proxy for "operating cash flow before working capital changes" which S&P sometimes uses as FFO equivalent. Let me proceed with practical approximations: **2021:** Adjusted_EBITDA = 396,680,000 (reported, or 383,084 normalized - let me use 396,680) FFO = 415,671,000 (from "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital") Adjusted_Debt = 3,110,366,000 Adjusted_Debt/Adjusted_EBITDA = 3,110,366/396,680 = **7.84x** FFO/Adjusted_Debt = 415,671/3,110,366 = **13.36%** or 0.1336 Hmm, these seem weak for investment grade. Let me check if ERG was indeed leveraged. Actually, looking at the balance sheet, total equity 2021 was 1,568,622,000 and liabilities were 4,435,222,000, so total assets 6,003,844,000. Debt to equity is high. But wait - this is a renewable energy company with long-term PPAs. The leverage might be typical for project finance. Let me recheck my debt calculation. "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" 2,064,088 + "Other Current Financial Liabilities" 1,342,688 = 3,406,776. This seems like total debt. Plus FVTPL liabilities: 44,763 + 170,857 = 215,620 Plus leases: 122,663 + 6,282 = 128,945 Gross debt: 3,406,776 + 215,620 + 128,945 = 3,751,341 Less cash 75%: 645,264 Net debt: 3,106,077 This is close to my 3,110,366. Let me use **€3,106 million**. Actually, I want to double-check: is "Other Current Financial Liabilities" really debt? It could include derivatives, accrued expenses, etc. Looking at 2022 vs 2021: Other Current Financial Liabilities went from 1,342,688 to 389,716 - a huge decrease. This suggests it includes short-term debt that was repaid. Also, "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" went from 2,064,088 to 1,751,255 - moderate decrease. So yes, these are debt items. ## Recalculation with Cleaner Numbers Let me be more careful and use standard S&P adjustments. **2021:** - EBITDA: 396,680 - Cash interest: need to estimate. Total finance costs 218,758; finance income 167,793; net 50,965. Interest paid 32,399 in financing. But total finance costs include accretion, FX, fair value changes. - Cash taxes: 38,010 For S&P FFO, let me use: FFO = Net income + D&A + deferred taxes + after-tax interest + other non-cash Actually, simpler: FFO = Operating Cash Flow before working capital changes + interest paid (if in financing) - interest received (if in operating) Or: FFO = 415,671 + 32,399 = 448,070? No, that's double counting. Let me look at this differently. The 415,671 already includes the add-back of finance costs (51,052 accrual). To get to FFO, we need to subtract the cash interest paid and add back... no wait. Standard approach: EBITDA = 396,680 Less: Cash interest paid = ? Less: Cash taxes paid = 38,010 = FFO But "cash interest paid" is not directly available. The 32,399 in financing activities is likely just the coupon/principal split. Actually, for project finance type companies, interest paid might be in operating activities. Let me check if there's any interest in operating cash flow... Looking at the detailed cash flow, I don't see separate interest in operating. The "Adjustments For Finance Costs" of 51,052 is added back (non-cash portion). I think the safest is to use "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" as the FFO proxy, which is standard practice when detailed breakdown isn't available. **Let me use: FFO 2021 = 415,671,000** ## Now for 2022: ## Step 7: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_EBITDA "Profit Loss From Operating Activities Before Interest Taxes Depreciation And Amortisation Expense" 2022: 499,430,000 Impairment on trade receivables 2022: 300,000 (much lower) Impairment reversal on PP&E 2022: 43,185,000 Adjusted_EBITDA 2022 = 499,430,000 + 300,000 - 43,185,000? No, reversal is below EBITDA. Actually, same logic: trade receivables impairment is in EBITDA, PP&E reversal is below. So if normalizing: 499,430,000 + 300,000 = 499,730,000? Or just use 499,430,000. The 300k is immaterial. Let me use **Adjusted_EBITDA 2022 = €499,430,000** ## Step 8: Estimate 2022 FFO "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" 2022: 616,360,000 Use as FFO proxy: **€616,360,000** ## Step 9: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_Debt 2023-01-01 (2022 year-end): - Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 1,751,255 - Other Current Financial Liabilities: 389,716 - Noncurrent Financial Liabilities at FVTPL: -0- - Current Financial Liabilities at FVTPL: 76,644 - Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: 150,955 - Current Lease Liabilities: 6,362 - Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits: 3,723 Gross debt: 1,751,255 + 389,716 + 0 + 76,644 + 150,955 + 6,362 + 3,723 = 2,378,655 Cash 2022: 860,352 (wait, no - "Cash And Cash Equivalents" 2023-01-01: 392,811) Eligible cash (75%): 0.75 × 392,811 = 294,608 Adjusted_Debt 2022 = 2,378,655 - 294,608 = **€2,084,047,000** ## Step 10: Calculate 2022 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA = 2,084,047 / 499,430 = **4.17x** ## Step 11: Calculate 2022 FFO / Adjusted_Debt = 616,360 / 2,084,047 = **29.58%** or 0.2958 ## Step 12: Classify Year-on-Year Credit Trend **Signal 1: Leverage (Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA)** - 2021: 7.84x (or using my earlier calc 3,110/396.68 = 7.84, but let me recheck with 3,106/396.68 = 7.83) - 2022: 4.17x Change: 4.17 - 7.84 = **-3.67x** This is a huge improvement, well beyond -0.2x threshold. **Signal 1: Improving** Wait, this seems too dramatic. Let me recheck my 2021 debt calculation. Actually, I think I may have included too much in 2021 debt. Let me recheck "Other Current Financial Liabilities" - this decreased from 1,342,688 to 389,716. But also, I need to check if there were assets held for sale in 2021 that affected debt. "Noncurrent Assets Or Disposal Groups Classified As Held For Sale" 2022-01-01: 776,220,000. And "Liabilities Included In Disposal Groups Classified As Held For Sale" 2022-01-01: 23,790,000. In 2022 year-end: "Noncurrent Assets Or Disposal Groups Classified As Held For Sale" 2023-01-01: 226,086,000. And "Liabilities Included In Disposal Groups Classified As Held For Sale" 2023-01-01: 89,421,000. The 2021 held-for-sale liabilities were only 23,790, so not material. But wait - looking at the 2021 balance sheet, total liabilities were 4,435,222,000. My debt calculation of 3,751,341 seems reasonable (the rest would be trade payables, provisions, etc.). Actually, let me recheck: total current liabilities 2021 were 1,885,284,000. This includes: - Trade payables: 254,374 - Short-term provisions: 51,809 - Current FVTPL liabilities: 170,857 - Other current financial liabilities: 1,342,688 - Current lease liabilities: 6,282 - Other current nonfinancial liabilities: 39,477 - Current tax liabilities: 19,798 Sum: 254,374 + 51,809 + 170,857 + 1,342,688 + 6,282 + 39,477 + 19,798 = 1,885,285 ✓ So "Other Current Financial Liabilities" of 1,342,688 is indeed a large portion, likely short-term debt or current portion of long-term debt. For 2022, current liabilities total 746,394, including: - Trade payables: 123,002 - Short-term provisions: 38,730 - Current FVTPL liabilities: 76,644 - Other current financial liabilities: 389,716 - Current lease liabilities: 6,362 - Other current nonfinancial liabilities: 59,628 - Current tax liabilities: 52,311 Sum: 123,002 + 38,730 + 76,644 + 389,716 + 6,362 + 59,628 + 52,311 = 746,393 ✓ So debt decreased significantly. The 2022 cash flow shows large debt repayments: - Repayments Of Noncurrent Borrowings: 350,218 - Cash Flows From Used In Increase Decrease In Current Borrowings: -1,000,134 (negative means decrease) Total debt reduction: about 1.35 billion. Plus proceeds from losing control of subsidiaries: 1,264,826. This makes sense - ERG sold assets and used proceeds to pay down debt. Now let me recalculate more precisely: **2021:** Adjusted_EBITDA = 396,680,000 Adjusted_Debt = 3,751,341,000 (gross) - 645,264,000 (75% cash) = 3,106,077,000 Or with 100% cash: 3,751,341 - 860,352 = 2,890,989 Let me use 75% cash as more standard: 3,106,077 FFO = 415,671,000 Adjusted_Debt/EBITDA = 3,106/396.68 = 7.83x FFO/Adjusted_Debt = 415.671/3,106.077 = 13.39% **2022:** Adjusted_EBITDA = 499,430,000 Adjusted_Debt = 2,378,655 - 294,608 = 2,084,047 Adjusted_Debt/EBITDA = 2,084/499.43 = 4.17x FFO/Adjusted_Debt = 616.36/2,084.047 = 29.58% **Signal 1: Leverage change** 4.17 - 7.83 = -3.66x ≤ -0.2x → **Improving** **Signal 2: Cash-flow coverage change** 0.2958 - 0.1339 = +0.1619 ≥ +0.03 → **Improving** Both signals agree: **Improving** But wait - I need to double-check my FFO for 2021. Let me recalculate if using a different FFO would change things. If FFO 2021 = 415,671 and FFO 2022 = 616,360: Change in FFO/Debt = 0.2958 - 0.1339 = 0.1619 Even if I used a lower FFO 2021, the coverage would improve more. If I used higher FFO 2021, it would still improve. Actually, let me verify the 2022 FFO. The cash flow shows: "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" 2022: 616,360,000 But wait - this includes discontinued operations? Let me check. "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities Continuing Operations" 2022: 502,520,000 "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities Discontinued Operations" 2022: 43,594,000 Total: 546,114? But "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" 2022: 458,926,000 Hmm, these don't add up. 502,520 + 43,594 = 546,114 ≠ 458,926. Wait, looking more carefully: "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" 2022: 458,926,000 And "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" 2022: 616,360,000 The difference is working capital changes: 616,360 - 458,926 = 157,434 For 2021: "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" 2021: 177,067,000 "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" 2021: 415,671,000 Difference: 238,604 So the "before working capital" figure is the right one for FFO-like calculation. But the continuing vs discontinued split: 2022 continuing before working capital: ? 2022 discontinued before working capital: ? I don't have the split for "before working capital" by segment. Let me use total. Actually, for 2021: "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities Continuing Operations" 2021: -40,849,000 (negative!) "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities Discontinued Operations" 2021: -217,916,000 (negative!) Total operating cash flow 2021: 177,067,000? But -40,849 + (-217,916) = -258,765 ≠ 177,067. Wait, these are "Cash Flows From Used In" - negative means cash used. But 177,067 is positive (cash generated). Looking at signs: "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" 2021: 177,067,000 - positive means cash generated. But "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities Continuing Operations" 2021: -40,849,000 - negative means cash used? And "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities Discontinued Operations" 2021: -217,916,000 - negative means cash used? -40,849 + (-217,916) = -258,765, not 177,067. Unless the signs are different. Maybe "Cash Flows From Used In" with negative value means cash generated? No, that doesn't make sense. Actually, looking at 2022: "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities Continuing Operations" 2022: 502,520,000 "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities Discontinued Operations" 2022: 43,594,000 Sum: 546,114,000 But "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" 2022: 458,926,000 Not matching. Unless there's a sign convention issue. Wait - "Cash Flows From Used In" might mean "Cash Flows From/(Used In)" where positive is from, negative is used in. So 2022 continuing: +502,520 (generated) 2022 discontinued: +43,594 (generated) Total should be 546,114, but reported as 458,926. Difference of 87,188. Maybe there's a consolidation adjustment or exchange difference. For 2021: -40,849 (used in continuing) + -217,916 (used in discontinued) = -258,765 used in total, but reported +177,067 generated. This doesn't make sense. Unless I misread the signs. Let me re-read: "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities Continuing Operations" 2021: -40849000.0 EUR The value is negative. But "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" 2021: 177067000.0 EUR is positive. Perhaps there's a typo in the data, or I'm misunderstanding the line items. Actually, looking at the pattern: 2021 total operating cash flow was 177,067 (positive, generated). 2022 was 458,926 (positive, generated). For continuing operations: 2022 was 502,520 (generated). 2021 was -40,849? That would mean continuing operations used cash in 2021, but total was positive due to discontinued operations. But discontinued 2021 was -217,916 (if negative means used). That would make it worse. Unless the signs are reversed for discontinued: "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities Discontinued Operations" 2021: -217916000.0 EUR - maybe this means 217,916 generated? If so: continuing -40,849 (used) + discontinued 217,916 (generated) = 177,067 total generated. That works! So negative values in these specific line items might mean "cash generated" or the sign convention is inconsistent. Regardless, for my FFO calculation, I'll use the "before working capital" figure which is unambiguously positive and large. **Final calculations:** 2021: - Adjusted_EBITDA: 396,680,000 - FFO: 415,671,000 - Adjusted_Debt: 3,106,077,000 (using 75% cash) - Adjusted_Debt/EBITDA: 7.83x - FFO/Adjusted_Debt: 13.39% 2022: - Adjusted_EBITDA: 499,430,000 - FFO: 616,360,000 - Adjusted_Debt: 2,084,047,000 - Adjusted_Debt/EBITDA: 4.17x - FFO/Adjusted_Debt: 29.58% Changes: - Leverage: 4.17 - 7.83 = -3.66x ≤ -0.2x → **Improving** - Coverage: 0.2958 - 0.1339 = +0.1619 ≥ +0.03 → **Improving** Both signals agree on **Improving**. The magnitude of improvement is very large - leverage dropped by 3.66 turns and coverage more than doubled. This is consistent with ERG selling subsidiaries (1.26B proceeds) and using cash to reduce debt significantly, while also growing EBITDA. Improving