VINCI should be advised to use **no hybrid bonds** over the next 18 months, i.e. **0% of total adjusted capital**.

Key reasoning:

- **No prior hybrid bond issuance:** VINCI has never issued hybrid bonds and did not issue any in 2021 or 2022. Under the guidance, this is a strong signal that hybrids are not an established or necessary part of its capital structure.

- **Credit metrics are strong and improving:**  
  - S&P Net Debt / EBITDA for 2022 was **1.89x**, which is low for a large infrastructure/concessions and contracting group.  
  - S&P FFO / Net Debt was **42.21%**, indicating strong cash-flow debt coverage.  
  - Moody’s adjusted leverage trend is explicitly described as **improving**.  
  These metrics do not suggest meaningful leverage pressure or a need for rating-supportive hybrid equity credit.

- **Strong operating performance and cash generation:** Revenue rose materially to **€62.3bn**, operating profit increased to **€6.5bn**, and net profit attributable to owners was **€4.3bn**. Operating cash flow was also strong at **€9.4bn**, comfortably supporting investment activity and shareholder distributions.

- **Funding needs appear manageable:** VINCI had significant gross debt, but also very substantial liquidity, with **cash and cash equivalents of €12.6bn** at year-end 2022. Cash increased during the year, despite capex, acquisitions, dividends, share buybacks, and net financing outflows. This does not indicate urgent refinancing stress.

- **Hybrid issuance would likely be costly relative to senior debt:** Market rates rose sharply in 2022. The 5–10 year swap curves moved from near-zero/negative levels in 2020–2021 to around **1.7%–1.9%** in 2022, and subordinated non-financial IG spreads also widened. A hybrid would likely materially increase VINCI’s marginal cost of capital versus its existing senior debt.

- **No clear rating necessity:** Hybrid bonds could improve adjusted leverage metrics, but VINCI’s starting point is already robust. There is no evidence of material downgrade risk, constrained rating headroom, or a transformational capex/M&A program requiring hybrid support.

Overall, VINCI fits the **0%** guidance best: strong credit profile, improving metrics, no current hybrids, manageable funding needs, and limited incremental benefit from issuing a relatively expensive hybrid instrument.

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