**Step 1: Identify the relevant industry** REN - Redes Energéticas Nacionais, SGPS, S.A. is the national grid operator for electricity and natural gas in Portugal. It operates transmission networks which are natural monopolies subject to regulation. Therefore, it falls under the **Regulated Utilities** sector methodology provided. **Step 2: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_EBITDA** First, we reconstruct EBITDA for 2021 (Fiscal Year ended Dec 31, 2021, reported in the column "2021-01-01 - 2022-01-01"). * **Revenue and Operating Income:** 838,353,000 EUR * **Operating Expenses:** 619,490,000 EUR * This includes Cost of Sales, Services Expense, Employee Benefits, Depreciation & Amortization, etc. * **EBIT (Operating Profit):** Revenue and Operating Income - Operating Expense * EBIT = 838,353,000 - 619,490,000 = 218,863,000 EUR * *Note: The report explicitly lists "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" as 218,863,000 EUR, which matches this calculation.* * **Depreciation and Amortization:** 241,940,000 EUR * **EBITDA:** EBIT + Depreciation & Amortization * EBITDA = 218,863,000 + 241,940,000 = 460,803,000 EUR **Adjustments for Regulated Utilities:** * **Leases:** The cash flow statement shows "Payments Of Lease Liabilities" of 2,065,000 EUR and "Payments Of Lease Interests" of 29,000 EUR. Under IFRS 16, lease liabilities are debt, and interest is cash interest. The principal repayment is a financing cash flow. EBITDA is generally pre-interest. The operating lease expense is embedded in operating expenses. Since IFRS 16 capitalizes leases, the depreciation of right-of-use assets is in D&A, and interest is in Finance Costs. To get to a standardized Adjusted EBITDA, we typically add back lease interest if it was deducted to reach EBIT, but EBITDA is before interest. However, S&P often adds back the entire lease cost (interest + principal amortization equivalent) or treats lease debt as part of Adjusted Debt. For EBITDA, since the interest is below the line, and the principal repayment is a balance sheet/financing item, the main adjustment is often ensuring consistency. Standard S&P practice for utilities often treats lease liabilities as debt. The EBITDA calculated above (460.8M) includes the depreciation of ROU assets but excludes lease interest. This is a standard EBITDA. We will check for other normalizations. * **Joint Ventures:** The company has "Investment Accounted For Using Equity Method". The share of profit is 6,431,000 EUR. S&P methodology for regulated utilities often looks at consolidated EBITDA. If the JVs are not consolidated, their EBITDA is not in the top line. However, the prompt asks to use the baseline formula: `Adjusted_EBITDA = EBITDA ... ± joint_venture_proportional_EBITDA`. We do not have the specific EBITDA of the JVs, only the share of profit. Without specific JV EBITDA data, we cannot accurately add proportional EBITDA. We will assume the impact is negligible or included in the general assessment, or that the consolidated operating profit is the primary driver. Given the small size of the equity income (6.4M) relative to EBITDA (460M), omitting a gross-up is a conservative and standard approximation when data is missing. * **Pension/Non-recurring:** No specific non-recurring items or significant pension adjustments are highlighted in the summary facts that would require material adjustment to EBITDA. The "Changes In Other Provisions" is small (-365k). **2021 Adjusted EBITDA ≈ 460,803,000 EUR** **Step 3: Estimate 2021 FFO** Formula: `FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes` * **Cash Interest:** * Finance Costs (P&L): 54,356,000 EUR. * Interest Paid (Cash Flow): 39,725,000 EUR. * Lease Interest Paid: 29,000 EUR. * S&P uses *cash* interest paid for FFO. * Total Cash Interest = Interest Paid (Financing) + Lease Interest = 39,725,000 + 29,000 = 39,754,000 EUR. * **Cash Taxes:** * Income Taxes Paid (Operating Activities): 74,253,000 EUR. **2021 FFO** = 460,803,000 - 39,754,000 - 74,253,000 = **346,796,000 EUR** **Step 4: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_Debt** Formula: `Adjusted_Debt = (reported_debt + leases + pension_deficit + guarantees + hybrid_debt_portion + other_debt_like_items) - eligible_cash` * **Reported Debt (2021-01-01 balance sheet represents start of 2021, but we need average or year-end? S&P typically uses year-end debt for ratio denominators in static analysis, or average. The prompt provides balances at 2022-01-01 (which is FY2021 year-end) and 2023-01-01 (FY2022 year-end). Let's use the year-end balances for the respective years.** * For 2021 Ratio, we use Debt at 2022-01-01? No, usually ratios are calculated using the debt outstanding at the end of the period for which the flow is measured. So for 2021 flows, we use 2021 year-end debt (2022-01-01). * Long-term Borrowings (2022-01-01): 2,390,852,000 EUR * Current Borrowings (2022-01-01): 375,221,000 EUR * Total Reported Debt = 2,766,073,000 EUR * **Leases:** * Lease liabilities are often part of "Trade And Other Payables" or separate. The facts don't explicitly list "Lease Liabilities" on the balance sheet, but cash flows show payments. In many IFRS utilities, lease liabilities are included in borrowings or other payables. Without a specific line item, and given the small cash flow impact (~2M/year), the principal amount is likely small relative to total debt. We will assume reported debt captures the material financial debt. If we must estimate, we might add a small amount, but without the balance sheet line, we stick to reported borrowings. *Correction*: S&P adds lease liabilities to debt. If not explicitly broken out, we might miss it. However, looking at "Noncurrent Provisions" and "Other Longterm Provisions", leases might be there. Given the lack of explicit data, we proceed with Reported Borrowings as the primary debt component. * **Pension Deficit:** * Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits: 94,109,000 EUR (2022-01-01). * S&P adjusts for underfunded pension liabilities. We treat the provision as the deficit unless stated otherwise. Add 94,109,000 EUR. * **Eligible Cash:** * Cash And Cash Equivalents (2022-01-01): 398,759,000 EUR. * S&P typically deducts unrestricted cash. **2021 Adjusted Debt** = (2,390,852,000 + 375,221,000) + 94,109,000 - 398,759,000 = 2,766,073,000 + 94,109,000 - 398,759,000 = **2,461,423,000 EUR** **Step 5: Calculate 2021 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA** Ratio = 2,461,423,000 / 460,803,000 ≈ **5.34x** **Step 6: Calculate 2021 FFO / Adjusted_Debt** Ratio = 346,796,000 / 2,461,423,000 ≈ **14.09%** (or 0.1409) --- **Step 7: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_EBITDA** Fiscal Year ended Dec 31, 2022 (reported in column "2022-01-01 - 2023-01-01"). * **Profit Loss From Operating Activities:** 239,721,000 EUR * **Depreciation and Amortisation Expense:** 249,276,000 EUR * **EBITDA:** 239,721,000 + 249,276,000 = 488,997,000 EUR **Adjustments:** * Similar to 2021, no major non-recurring items identified in the summary. * **2022 Adjusted EBITDA ≈ 488,997,000 EUR** **Step 8: Estimate 2022 FFO** Formula: `FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes` * **Cash Interest:** * Interest Paid (Financing): 40,545,000 EUR * Lease Interest Paid: 26,000 EUR * Total Cash Interest = 40,571,000 EUR * **Cash Taxes:** * Income Taxes Paid: 77,970,000 EUR **2022 FFO** = 488,997,000 - 40,571,000 - 77,970,000 = **370,456,000 EUR** **Step 9: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_Debt** Using year-end balances at 2023-01-01. * **Reported Debt:** * Long-term Borrowings: 1,695,362,000 EUR * Current Borrowings: 638,944,000 EUR * Total Reported Debt = 2,334,306,000 EUR * **Pension Deficit:** * Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits: 64,939,000 EUR * **Eligible Cash:** * Cash And Cash Equivalents: 365,292,000 EUR **2022 Adjusted Debt** = 2,334,306,000 + 64,939,000 - 365,292,000 = **2,033,953,000 EUR** **Step 10: Calculate 2022 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA** Ratio = 2,033,953,000 / 488,997,000 ≈ **4.16x** **Step 11: Calculate 2022 FFO / Adjusted_Debt** Ratio = 370,456,000 / 2,033,953,000 ≈ **18.21%** (or 0.1821) --- **Step 12: Classify the credit trend** **Signal 1: Leverage (Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA)** * 2021: 5.34x * 2022: 4.16x * Change: 4.16 - 5.34 = **-1.18x** * Threshold: ≤ -0.2x is Improving. * Signal 1: **Improving** **Signal 2: Cash-flow coverage (FFO / Adjusted Debt)** * 2021: 14.09% (0.1409) * 2022: 18.21% (0.1821) * Change: 0.1821 - 0.1409 = **+0.0412** (or +4.12 percentage points) * Threshold: ≥ +0.03 is Improving. * Signal 2: **Improving** **Combination:** Both signals indicate an **Improving** trend. The leverage decreased significantly (by more than 1 turn), and the cash flow coverage increased by more than 3 percentage points. This is driven by a reduction in debt (from ~2.46B to ~2.03B) and an increase in EBITDA/FFO generation. Improving