**Step 1: Identify the relevant industry for "BOUYGUES"** Bouygues is a diversified industrial group with major activities in construction (Colas, Bouygues Construction), telecommunications (Bouygues Telecom), and media (TF1). It also has some real estate development. * **Regulated Utilities:** Bouygues Telecom operates in a competitive market, not as a regulated utility with cost-of-service regulation. TF1 is a media company. Construction is cyclical. Thus, it does not fit the Regulated Utilities methodology. * **Oil And Gas Exploration And Production:** Bouygues is not an E&P company. * **Unregulated Power And Gas:** Bouygues is not primarily a power/gas generator or retailer. * **Transportation Infrastructure:** While Bouygues Construction builds infrastructure, Bouygues SA itself is not primarily an operator of transportation infrastructure assets (like toll roads or airports) under concession in the manner described by the specific Transportation Infrastructure methodology (which focuses on asset operators). Bouygues is a conglomerate. Since Bouygues does not fit neatly into the specific specialized industry methodologies provided (which are quite narrow), we apply the **general corporate baseline formulas** as instructed for entities not fitting the provided industry methodologies. Note: In practice, S&P rates Bouygues as a diversified conglomerate, often using general corporate metrics or construction/media specific nuances, but without a specific "Conglomerate" or "Construction" methodology provided in the prompt, we stick to the baseline formulas. **Step 2: Estimate the 2021 "Adjusted_EBITDA"** Formula: `Adjusted_EBITDA = EBITDA (reported or reconstructed) + adjustment_leases (if any) + nonrecurring_losses - nonrecurring_gains ± pension_adjustments ± joint_venture_proportional_EBITDA ± other_normalization_adjustments` First, we reconstruct EBITDA for 2021 (Fiscal year ended Dec 31, 2021, data labeled 2021-01-01 - 2022-01-01). From the data: * `Profit Loss From Operating Activities` (Operating Profit/EBIT) 2021: 1,733,000,000 EUR * `Depreciation And Amortisation Expense` 2021: 2,065,000,000 EUR * `Depreciation Rightofuse Assets` 2021: 353,000,000 EUR (Note: This is likely included in the total Depreciation and Amortisation expense, or separate. Let's check the sum. Usually, "Depreciation and Amortisation" is the total. The line item `Depreciation Rightofuse Assets` is often a subset. Let's assume `Depreciation And Amortisation Expense` is the total D&A added back to EBIT to get EBITDA. If we add both, we might double count. Standard reporting: EBIT + Total D&A = EBITDA. The line `Depreciation And Amortisation Expense` is 2,065M. The line `Depreciation Rightofuse Assets` is 353M. It is highly probable the 2,065M includes the 353M. We will use 2,065M as the total D&A.) * `Impairment Loss Reversal Of Impairment Loss Recognised In Profit Or Loss And Provision Expense` 2021: 405,000,000 EUR. This is an expense (loss) or provision. Since it's positive in the expense list, it reduces profit. To get EBITDA from Operating Profit, we add back D&A and Impairments/Provisions if they are non-cash or considered adjustments. However, standard EBITDA is EBIT + D&A. Adjusted EBITDA often adds back impairments. Let's look at the structure. * Operating Profit (EBIT) = 1,733 M * Add back D&A = 2,065 M * EBITDA (Reported) = 1,733 + 2,065 = 3,798 M. * Are there non-recurring items? * `Other Operating Income Non Recurring` 2021: 115 M (Gain) * `Other Operating Expense Non Recurring` 2021: 75 M (Loss) * Net Non-recurring Operating = 115 - 75 = +40 M (Net Gain). * To adjust EBITDA, we subtract non-recurring gains and add non-recurring losses. * Adjustment = -40 M. * `Impairment Loss...` 405 M. Is this included in EBIT? Yes, "Recognised In Profit Or Loss". Is it non-cash? Impairments are non-cash. Provisions might be. S&P often adds back impairments to get Adjusted EBITDA. Let's assume the 405M is an impairment/provision expense included in EBIT. We add it back. * Lease Adjustment: S&P generally treats leases as debt-like. For EBITDA, under IFRS 16, EBITDA usually includes the depreciation of ROU assets and interest on lease liabilities is below EBIT. However, S&P's "baseline" formula asks for `adjustment_leases`. In many S&P corporate calculations, they add back the lease interest (which is in EBITDA? No, interest is below EBITDA) or adjust EBITDA to be pre-lease interest? Actually, under IFRS 16, EBITDA is higher because rent expense is replaced by Depreciation (added back) and Interest (not added back). S&P often calculates "Pre-IFRS 16 EBITDA" or similar by adding back the interest portion of lease payments to EBITDA to make it comparable, OR they simply use reported EBITDA and adjust Debt. The prompt formula says `Adjusted_EBITDA = EBITDA ... + adjustment_leases`. A common adjustment is to add back the interest expense on leases if it was deducted to arrive at a metric, but EBITDA typically excludes interest. However, if we look at `Profit Loss From Operating Activities`, it is before interest. So EBITDA derived from EBIT + D&A already excludes lease interest. Does `adjustment_leases` refer to adding back the principal repayment? No, that's cash flow. Does it refer to adding back the ROU depreciation? That's already in D&A. * Let's look at the `Cash Flow After Cost Of Net Debt Interest Expense On Lease Obligations And Income Taxes Paid`. This suggests lease interest is treated as financing. * Standard S&P Corporate Methodology: Adjusted EBITDA is generally Reported EBITDA + Non-recurring items. Lease adjustments are typically on the Debt side (adding lease liabilities) and sometimes EBITDA is adjusted to add back the implied interest if comparing to pre-IFRS 16, but usually, S&P uses Reported EBITDA for leverage ratios in general corporates unless specified. However, the prompt explicitly includes `+ adjustment_leases`. In the absence of a specific instruction to capitalize operating leases (since they are already on balance sheet as ROU), this adjustment might be 0 or related to normalizing lease costs. Given IFRS 16, EBITDA is already "lease-adjusted" upwards compared to old standards. We will assume `adjustment_leases` is 0 for the EBITDA calculation itself, as the interest is below the line and depreciation is added back. * Joint Ventures: `Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates And Joint Ventures` is -30M (2022) and 222M (2021). This is equity income, usually below EBIT. S&P often consolidates proportionate EBITDA for JVs. We don't have the revenue/EBITDA of the JVs, only the share of profit. We cannot accurately calculate proportional EBITDA. We will assume this adjustment is negligible or captured in the operating profit if it's an operating JV, but typically equity income is excluded from EBITDA. If we exclude the equity income from EBIT, we should subtract it. * 2021 Equity Income: +222 M. This is included in `Profit Loss From Continuing Operations` but is it in `Profit Loss From Operating Activities`? Usually, "Operating Activities" excludes equity income from associates. Let's check the flow. * Operating Profit: 1,733. * Net Financial Items: Cost of Net Debt (155) + Other Finance Income (63) - Other Finance Cost (74) = Net Fin Cost approx 166? * Let's check: 1,733 (Op) - 155 (Cost Net Debt) - 52 (Int Lease) + 63 (Other Fin Inc) - 74 (Other Fin Cost) + 222 (Equity Income) - 432 (Tax) = 1,305 (Profit). * Calculation: 1733 - 155 - 52 + 63 - 74 + 222 - 432 = 1305. Matches. * So Equity Income (222M) is NOT in Operating Profit. Therefore, it is NOT in our reconstructed EBITDA (which is based on Operating Profit). So no adjustment needed to remove it. * However, S&P prefers proportional consolidation. Without JV revenue/EBITDA data, we cannot add it. We proceed with the consolidated operating EBITDA. * Pension Adjustments: Not provided. Assume 0. * Other Normalization: Not provided. Assume 0. **2021 Adjusted EBITDA Calculation:** * EBIT (Operating Profit): 1,733 M * Add: D&A: 2,065 M * Add: Impairments/Provisions (Non-cash/Non-recurring): 405 M * Less: Non-recurring Gains: 115 M * Add: Non-recurring Losses: 75 M * *Note on Impairments:* The line item is "Impairment Loss Reversal ... and Provision Expense". A positive value here indicates an expense/loss. We add it back to EBIT to get cash-flow proxy. * Adjusted EBITDA = 1,733 + 2,065 + 405 - 115 + 75 = 4,163 M EUR. Let's refine the "Non-recurring" classification. The report distinguishes "Recurring" and "Non Recurring". Recurring Operating Profit: 1,693 M. Non-Recurring Operating Income: 115 M. Non-Recurring Operating Expense: 75 M. Net Non-Recurring Operating Impact: +40 M. Reported Operating Profit: 1,733 M. Check: 1,693 (Recurring Op Profit) + 115 - 75 = 1,733. Correct. S&P Adjusted EBITDA typically starts with Recurring EBITDA. Recurring EBITDA = Recurring Operating Profit + Recurring D&A? The D&A figure (2,065) is likely total. We don't have a split of D&A into recurring/non-recurring. We assume all D&A is recurring/operational. So, Recurring EBITDA = Recurring Operating Profit (1,693) + Total D&A (2,065) = 3,758 M. Then add back Impairments/Provisions? The 405M is listed separately from the Recurring/Non-recurring Operating Profit breakdown? Let's check the P&L structure again. `Profit Loss From Operating Activities Recurring`: 1,693. `Profit Loss From Operating Activities`: 1,733. Difference is 40. This matches the net non-recurring operating items (115 - 75 = 40). Where is the 405M `Impairment Loss...`? It is likely included in the expenses that derive the Operating Profit. Is it in Recurring or Non-recurring? Usually, impairments are considered non-recurring or adjusted. If it's in the "Recurring" bucket, we add it back. If it's in "Non-recurring", it's already excluded from the 1,693? The label "Impairment Loss Reversal Of Impairment Loss Recognised In Profit Or Loss And Provision Expense" is a standard line item. Often, "Recurring Operating Profit" excludes significant impairments. However, without explicit confirmation, standard practice is to add back impairments to Reported EBITDA. Let's assume the 405M is an expense included in the Operating Profit. If we start with Reported EBITDA: Reported EBITDA = 1,733 + 2,065 = 3,798 M. Adjustments: - Subtract Non-recurring Operating Gain (net): 40 M. (115 gain - 75 loss). - Add back Impairments/Provisions: 405 M. Adjusted EBITDA 2021 = 3,798 - 40 + 405 = 4,163 M EUR. **Step 3: Estimate the 2021 "FFO"** Formula: `FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes` * `cash_interest`: We need the cash interest paid. * `Interest Expense`: 176 M. * `Interest Expense On Lease Liabilities`: 52 M. * `Cost Of Net Debt`: 155 M. * `Other Finance Income/Cost`: Net is 63 - 74 = -11 M. * Total Interest Expense (P&L) = 176 + 52 + (Net Other Finance Cost 11?) = ~239 M? * Let's look at Cash Flow. * `Interest Paid Classified As Financing Activities`: 207 M. * S&P typically uses cash interest paid. * Cash Interest 2021 = 207 M EUR. * `cash_taxes`: * `Income Taxes Paid Classified As Operating Activities`: 397 M EUR. FFO 2021 = 4,163 - 207 - 397 = 3,559 M EUR. **Step 4: Estimate the 2021 "Adjusted_Debt"** Formula: `Adjusted_Debt = (reported_debt + leases + pension_deficit + guarantees + hybrid_debt_portion + other_debt_like_items) - eligible_cash` * `reported_debt`: * `Longterm Borrowings` (2022-01-01, which is end of 2021): 5,805 M. * `Current Borrowings And Current Portion Of Noncurrent Borrowings` (2022-01-01): 1,324 M. * `Current Overdrafts And Short Term Borrowings From Banks` (2022-01-01): 351 M. * Total Reported Debt = 5,805 + 1,324 + 351 = 7,480 M. * `leases`: * `Noncurrent Lease Liabilities` (2022-01-01): 1,473 M. * `Current Lease Liabilities` (2022-01-01): 362 M. * Total Leases = 1,473 + 362 = 1,835 M. * `pension_deficit`: Not provided. Assume 0. * `guarantees`: Not provided. Assume 0. * `hybrid_debt`: Not provided. Assume 0. * `eligible_cash`: * `Cash And Cash Equivalents` (2022-01-01): 6,501 M. * S&P usually deducts unrestricted cash. We assume all cash is eligible unless stated otherwise. * Eligible Cash = 6,501 M. Adjusted_Debt 2021 = (7,480 + 1,835) - 6,501 = 9,315 - 6,501 = 2,814 M EUR. *Wait*, looking at the `Net Debt` provided in the facts: `Net Debt` 2022-01-01 (End 2021): 941 M EUR. My calculated Net Debt (Debt + Leases - Cash) = 2,814 M. Why the difference? Reported Net Debt often excludes certain items or includes others. Let's check the company's definition. Debt (7,480) - Cash (6,501) = 979 M. If we include Leases (1,835), it becomes 2,814 M. The provided `Net Debt` is 941 M. This is close to Debt - Cash (979 M). The difference (38 M) might be hedging or other adjustments. Crucially, S&P's `Adjusted_Debt` definition explicitly adds `leases`. So, S&P Adjusted Debt = Reported Debt + Lease Liabilities - Cash. Adjusted_Debt 2021 = 7,480 + 1,835 - 6,501 = 2,814 M EUR. **Step 5: Calculate the 2021 "Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA" ratio** Ratio 2021 = 2,814 / 4,163 = 0.676 x. **Step 6: Calculate the 2021 "FFO / Adjusted_Debt" ratio** Ratio 2021 = 3,559 / 2,814 = 1.265 (or 126.5%). **Step 7: Estimate the 2022 "Adjusted_EBITDA"** Data for 2022 (Fiscal year ended Dec 31, 2022, data labeled 2022-01-01 - 2023-01-01). * `Profit Loss From Operating Activities`: 1,872 M. * `Depreciation And Amortisation Expense`: 2,228 M. * Reported EBITDA = 1,872 + 2,228 = 4,100 M. * Non-recurring items: * `Other Operating Income Non Recurring`: 93 M. * `Other Operating Expense Non Recurring`: 183 M. * Net Non-recurring Operating = 93 - 183 = -90 M (Net Loss). * Adjustment: Add back net loss = +90 M. (Or subtract gain/add loss: -93 + 183 = +90). * Impairments/Provisions: * `Impairment Loss ...`: 172 M. * Add back: 172 M. * Adjusted EBITDA 2022 = 4,100 + 90 + 172 = 4,362 M EUR. **Step 8: Estimate the 2022 "FFO"** * `cash_interest`: * `Interest Paid Classified As Financing Activities`: 260 M. * `cash_taxes`: * `Income Taxes Paid Classified As Operating Activities`: 518 M. FFO 2022 = 4,362 - 260 - 518 = 3,584 M EUR. **Step 9: Estimate the 2022 "Adjusted_Debt"** Data at 2023-01-01 (End 2022). * `reported_debt`: * `Longterm Borrowings`: 11,586 M. * `Current Borrowings ...`: 1,361 M. * `Current Overdrafts ...`: 418 M. * Total Reported Debt = 11,586 + 1,361 + 418 = 13,365 M. * `leases`: * `Noncurrent Lease Liabilities`: 2,107 M. * `Current Lease Liabilities`: 498 M. * Total Leases = 2,107 + 498 = 2,605 M. * `eligible_cash`: * `Cash And Cash Equivalents`: 5,736 M. Adjusted_Debt 2022 = (13,365 + 2,605) - 5,736 = 15,970 - 5,736 = 10,234 M EUR. Check against provided `Net Debt`: Provided `Net Debt` 2023-01-01: 7,440 M. My Debt - Cash = 13,365 - 5,736 = 7,629 M. Close to 7,440 M (diff 189 M, likely hedging/derivatives). S&P Adjusted Debt adds leases. 10,234 M seems correct based on the formula. **Step 10: Calculate the 2022 "Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA" ratio** Ratio 2022 = 10,234 / 4,362 = 2.346 x. **Step 11: Calculate the 2022 "FFO / Adjusted_Debt" ratio** Ratio 2022 = 3,584 / 10,234 = 0.350 (or 35.0%). **Step 12: Classify the year-on-year credit trend** * **Signal 1: Leverage (Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA)** * 2021: 0.676 x * 2022: 2.346 x * Change: 2.346 - 0.676 = +1.67 x. * Threshold: ≥ +0.2x is Deteriorating. * Signal 1: **Deteriorating**. * **Signal 2: Cash-flow coverage (FFO / Adjusted_Debt)** * 2021: 1.265 * 2022: 0.350 * Change: 0.350 - 1.265 = -0.915. * Threshold: ≤ -0.03 is Deteriorating. * Signal 2: **Deteriorating**. * **Combination:** * Both signals are Deteriorating. * The leverage increased significantly (from <1x to >2x) due to a large increase in debt (likely acquisitions, as seen in "Cash Flows Used In Obtaining Control Of Subsidiaries" of 6,269 M in 2022 vs 382 M in 2021). * The coverage dropped significantly. Conclusion: The credit trend is Deteriorating. Deteriorating