I'll analyze Iberdrola's situation to determine the appropriate hybrid bond issuance level. ## Key Facts Analysis ### Current Hybrid Bond Position - **Already issued hybrid bonds in 2021 or 2022: YES** - **First year of hybrid bond issuance: 2013** (nearly 10 years of hybrid issuance history) - This indicates Iberdrola is an established hybrid bond issuer with experience in this market ### Credit Metrics (2022) - **S&P Net Debt / EBITDA: 3.91** - **S&P FFO / Net Debt: 0.1965** (approximately 19.65%) - **Moody's adjusted leverage trend: Stable** ### Capital Structure (2023-01-01 / End of 2022) - **Total Equity**: €58,114 million - Equity attributable to owners: €41,119 million - Noncontrolling interests: €16,995 million - **Total Debt/Financial Liabilities**: - Noncurrent financial liabilities: €44,216 million - Current financial liabilities: €25,079 million - Total financial debt: approximately €69,295 million ### Business Profile Assessment **Iberdrola is primarily a regulated utility with significant unregulated/renewable activities:** 1. **Regulated utility characteristics**: Strong presence in regulated networks (electricity distribution, transmission) 2. **Unregulated/renewable generation**: Large renewable portfolio with long-term PPAs and regulated/contracted revenues 3. **Geographic diversification**: Operations across Spain, UK, US, Brazil, and other markets ### S&P Rating Methodology Considerations **For Regulated Utilities:** - Low volatility table applies if: ≥2/3 of cash flows from regulated operations with strong regulatory advantage - Medial volatility table applies if: ≥50% from regulated activities with adequate+ regulatory advantage, or ≥1/3 from regulated with strong/adequate and CICRA ≤3 **For Unregulated Power and Gas:** - Medial volatility table if significant proportion from lower-risk industries (regulated utility activities or strongly protected unregulated revenue) Iberdrola likely qualifies for **medial or low volatility table** given: - Mix of regulated networks and contracted/renewable generation - Strong regulatory frameworks in key markets (UK RIIO, US rate cases, Spanish regulated returns) ### Financial Position Assessment **Strengths:** - Strong operating cash flow: €10,443 million in 2022 - Stable leverage trend per Moody's - Established hybrid issuer since 2013 - Diversified, largely contracted/regulated revenue base **Considerations:** - Net Debt/EBITDA of 3.91 is moderate for a utility (not overly stressed, but not minimal) - FFO/Net Debt of ~20% is reasonable but not exceptionally strong - Significant capex program: Construction in progress increased from €9,062M to €11,513M (2021 to 2022) - Property, plant & equipment growth: €79,981M to €86,326M ### Market Environment (2022) - Rising interest rate environment (swap curves turned positive in 2022 after negative rates) - Corporate bond spreads widened somewhat - Hybrid costs likely increased but still manageable for investment grade issuer ### Guidance Checklist Analysis **Against the 0% criteria:** - ❌ Already has hybrids in capital structure (issued in 2021/2022) - ❌ Has capex needs (construction in progress up 27% year-over-year) - ❌ Not "A" range rating (BBBa/BBB+ type utility, not A-rated) - ❌ Hybrid issuance could improve metrics **Against 3.75% criteria:** - Moderate funding needs: ✓ (capex program ongoing) - Mild leverage optimization: ✓ (Net Debt/EBITDA ~4x is moderate) - Limited but useful rating flexibility: ✓ - Cost increase: Possible given rising rate environment **Against 7.5% criteria:** - Moderate refinancing or acquisition needs: ✓ (ongoing capex, some M&A history) - Rating headroom moderately constrained: Partially ✓ (stable trend but not strong headroom) - Meaningfully improves leverage: ✓ (hybrids get 50% equity credit) - Cost slightly increases debt: In 2022 rising rate environment, likely yes **Against 11.25% criteria:** - High capex intensity OR large acquisition pipeline: Partially ✓ (renewable investment program is substantial) - Significant leverage pressure: Not clearly ✓ (stable trend, not deteriorating) - Investment grade preservation dependent on hybrids: Not clearly ✓ **Against 15% criteria:** - Very high refinancing needs OR transformational program: Not clearly ✓ - Material downgrade risk without hybrids: Not supported by data ### Critical Factor: Previous Hybrid Issuance History The guidance states: **"an entity's previous levels of hybrid bond issuance is a strong indicator of a reasonably advisable level for the next 18 months"** - Iberdrola **has issued hybrids recently (2021 or 2022)** - First issued in **2013**, so nearly 10 years of consistent hybrid usage - This strongly suggests continued hybrid issuance is appropriate and likely at similar or moderately adjusted levels Given the established hybrid program, stable leverage trend, moderate but not stressed credit metrics, and significant ongoing capex needs (renewable energy transition investments), Iberdrola should continue using hybrids meaningfully. ### Balancing the Factors - **Not 0% or 3.75%**: Too low given established hybrid history and capex needs - **Not 15%**: No evidence of material downgrade risk or transformational M&A requiring maximum hybrid usage - **Between 7.5% and 11.25%**: The 7.5% level fits best because: - Moderate refinancing/capex needs (renewable investment program) - Rating headroom is moderately constrained (Net Debt/EBITDA ~4x, FFO/Net Debt ~20%) - Hybrids meaningfully improve adjusted leverage metrics - Cost in 2022 environment would slightly increase (rising rates but hybrids still beneficial for equity credit) - Established issuer since 2013, recently active in 2021-2022 The 11.25% would require more evidence of "significant leverage pressure" or "investment grade preservation strongly dependent" on hybrids, which the stable Moody's trend and moderate metrics don't fully support. 7.5%