I'll work through this step-by-step, analyzing ENEL SPA's financial data and applying S&P's methodology. ## Step 1: Identify Relevant Industry ENEL SPA is a major Italian multi-utility company. Based on the data showing: - Electricity generation, distribution, and retail operations - Significant commodity exposure (raw materials, commodity contracts) - Both regulated and unregulated activities ENEL operates as an **integrated utility with significant unregulated power and gas activities** as well as regulated utility operations. Given the substantial commodity trading, generation, and retail supply components, I'll primarily apply the **Unregulated Power And Gas** methodology, while noting regulated utility elements. The company has significant exposure to commodity markets, power generation, and retail supply. ## Step 2: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_EBITDA First, let me reconstruct 2021 EBITDA from the income statement data: **2021 Data:** - Revenue: 85,719,000,000 EUR - Operating Expense: 80,691,000,000 EUR - Profit Loss From Operating Activities: 7,551,000,000 EUR Operating profit (EBIT) = 7,551,000,000 EUR Add back depreciation/amortization: - Depreciation Amortisation And Impairment: 8,507,000,000 EUR **EBITDA = EBIT + D&A = 7,551,000,000 + 8,507,000,000 = 16,058,000,000 EUR** Now apply S&P adjustments for Unregulated Power and Gas: - Add back nonrecurring losses, subtract nonrecurring gains - Joint venture adjustments (equity method earnings) - Other normalization adjustments From the data: - Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates And Joint Ventures: 571,000,000 EUR (this is already below EBIT, so for EBITDA we need to consider if this is included in operating profit) - Looking at the structure, this appears below operating profit (part of pre-tax calculation) Actually, let me recalculate more carefully. The operating profit of 7,551,000,000 already includes the operating activities. The share of JVs is typically below operating profit. Let me verify: Profit Loss Before Tax = 5,378,000,000 EUR Profit Loss From Operating Activities = 7,551,000,000 EUR Difference: 7,551,000,000 - 5,378,000,000 = 2,173,000,000 EUR This difference includes: - Finance Income: 1,862,000,000 EUR - Finance Costs: -6,087,000,000 EUR - Gains Losses On Net Monetary Position: 20,000,000 EUR - Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates: 571,000,000 EUR Check: 1,862 - 6,087 + 0.02 + 571 = -3,634,000,000... that doesn't match. Let me recalculate: 7,551 - 5,378 = 2,173,000,000 positive difference. Looking again: Finance Income 1,862 + Finance Costs should be negative (6,087 expense). So 1,862 - 6,087 = -4,225. Plus 571 (JVs) = -3,654. Plus 20 = -3,634. This doesn't equal 2,173. Wait - I need to check if "Finance Costs" is already negative or if it's an expense figure. Looking at 2022: Finance Income 3,430, Finance Costs 5,880, and Profit Before Tax 8,741. Operating profit 11,193. So 11,193 - 8,741 = 2,452. Finance Income 3,430 - Finance Costs 5,880 = -2,450. Plus 290 (monetary) = -2,160. Plus 4 (JVs) = -2,156. Close to -2,452 with some rounding or other items. Actually for 2021: the 5,378 profit before tax vs 7,551 operating profit means 2,173 difference. The finance costs must be net of some items, or there are other items. Let me proceed with EBITDA = Operating Profit + D&A = 7,551 + 8,507 = 16,058,000,000 EUR For S&P adjustments in Unregulated Power and Gas: - We typically add back nonrecurring items, joint venture proportional EBITDA Looking at 2021 data for nonrecurring items: - Other Income: 3,819,000,000 EUR (this includes some non-operating items) - Net Results From Commodity Contracts: 2,523,000,000 EUR (this is operating) - Other Expense By Nature: 1,968,000,000 EUR Actually, let me use a cleaner approach. For utilities, S&P often uses: - Start with Operating Profit - Add D&A back to get EBITDA - Adjust for nonrecurring items From the cash flow statement approach: - Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities: 9,915,000,000 EUR - Add back interest paid: 4,277,000,000 EUR (finance costs paid) - Add back taxes paid: 1,846,000,000 EUR - Less: working capital changes and other items This gets complex. Let me use a more standard approach. **2021 Adjusted_EBITDA calculation:** Reported EBITDA = Operating Profit + D&A = 7,551 + 8,507 = 16,058,000,000 EUR Adjustments: - Add: Other Work Performed By Entity And Capitalised: 3,041,000,000 EUR (this is like capex, not added to EBITDA) - Need to check for nonrecurring items in Other Income/Expense Looking at "Other Expense By Nature" = 1,968,000,000 EUR - this seems like operating "Other Income" = 3,819,000,000 EUR For S&P purposes, we want sustainable operating EBITDA. The commodity contract results are part of operations for ENEL. Let me check if there's any obvious nonrecurring. The "Net Results From Commodity Contracts" is core business. I'll use **EBITDA = 16,058,000,000 EUR** as base, with adjustments for JVs and nonrecurring. Actually, for proportional consolidation of JVs: Share of profit is 571,000,000. If we gross up for proportional EBITDA, we'd add something. But this gets complex without full JV financials. Let me use a practical approach: **2021 Adjusted_EBITDA ≈ 16,058,000,000 + proportional EBITDA adjustments** For simplicity and given data limitations, I'll estimate: - Add back share of JV profits to roughly gross up (but this is profit, not EBITDA) - Assume JVs have similar margins: proportional EBITDA add ~1,000,000,000 EUR **2021 Adjusted_EBITDA = 16,500,000,000 EUR** (approximate, with JV gross-up) Actually, let me be more conservative and use reported EBITDA with minimal adjustments: **2021 Adjusted_EBITDA = 16,058,000,000 EUR** ## Step 3: Estimate 2021 FFO FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes From cash flow statement: - Finance Costs Paid (operating activities): 4,277,000,000 EUR - Income Taxes Paid: 1,846,000,000 EUR - Finance Income Received: 1,365,000,000 EUR Net cash interest = 4,277 - 1,365 = 2,912,000,000 EUR FFO = 16,058 - 2,912 - 1,846 = **11,300,000,000 EUR** Or using the direct FFO approach from cash flows: - Cash from operations before working capital changes ≈ - From cash flow: 9,915 + working capital changes and other adjustments Let me verify: Cash Flows From Operating Activities = 9,915,000,000 This includes working capital changes of 1,097,000,000 positive So before working capital: ~8,818,000,000? No wait, positive working capital means it added to cash flow, so pre-working capital would be lower. Actually: CFO = 9,915. Working capital contribution = 1,097. So operating cash flow before working capital = 8,818? No, if working capital is positive contributor, then without it: 9,915 - 1,097 = 8,818. But this also includes interest and taxes. Let me use the formula approach: FFO = EBITDA - net cash interest - cash taxes = 16,058 - (4,277 - 1,365) - 1,846 = 16,058 - 2,912 - 1,846 = **11,300,000,000 EUR** ## Step 4: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_Debt Adjusted_Debt = reported_debt + leases + pension_deficit + guarantees + hybrid_debt_portion + other_debt_like_items - eligible_cash **2021 Debt components:** - Longterm Borrowings: 54,500,000,000 EUR - Related Parties portion: 880,000,000 EUR - Shortterm Borrowings: 13,306,000,000 EUR - Related Parties: 6,000,000 EUR - Current Portion Of Longterm Borrowings: 4,031,000,000 EUR - Related Parties: 109,000,000 EUR Total reported debt = 54,500 + 13,306 + 4,031 = 71,837,000,000 EUR (plus related party portions, but these may be included) Actually let me check: Longterm 54,500 + Shortterm 13,306 + Current portion 4,031 = 71,837,000,000 EUR **Other items:** - Hybrid bonds in equity: 5,567,000,000 EUR (2022), 5,567,000,000... wait let me check 2021. From equity components 2021: - Equity Instruments Perpetual Hybrid Bonds Member: 2,386,000,000 EUR (2021 start) + 3,181,000,000 issued = 5,567,000,000? No wait, 2022 shows 5,567,000,000. Actually 2022 equity shows: "Equity Instruments Perpetual Hybrid Bonds Member" = 5,567,000,000 EUR 2021 equity shows: "Equity Instruments Perpetual Hybrid Bonds Member" = 2,386,000,000 EUR... but then "Hybrid Bonds Issued" = 3,181,000,000 EUR in 2021 changes. So 2021 ending hybrid bonds = 2,386 + 3,181 = 5,567,000,000 EUR. Same as 2022 start. For S&P, hybrid bonds are typically 50% equity, 50% debt treatment, or full debt if weak. Let me assume 50% debt treatment: **2,783,500,000 EUR** **Pension deficit:** - Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits: 2,724,000,000 EUR - This is a liability, could be treated as debt-like if underfunded For S&P: pension deficit = liability - plan assets. We don't have plan assets. Let me use 50% of this as debt-like: **1,362,000,000 EUR** Actually, S&P typically treats unfunded pension obligations as debt. The provision is 2,724,000,000. Let's be conservative and treat 50% as debt-like: **1,362,000,000 EUR** **Leases:** Not separately identified, likely included in debt or operating. Let me assume minimal separate leases. **Eligible cash:** - Cash And Cash Equivalents: 8,858,000,000 EUR - But we need to check what's truly excess cash. S&P typically deducts 75% of cash if not clearly excess. For regulated/utilities, S&P is more conservative. Let's use 75% of cash: Eligible cash = 0.75 × 8,858 = 6,643,500,000 EUR? Or is it that we keep only 25%? Actually S&P deducts cash from debt, but only excess cash. For utilities, they often don't deduct much cash. Let me use **0 EUR** deduction (conservative, as cash is needed for operations). Or standard approach: deduct 75% of cash as not truly excess: Eligible cash deduction = 0.75 × 8,858 = 6,643,500,000? No wait, we subtract eligible cash from debt. Let me use: **Adjusted_Debt = 71,837 + 2,784 (50% hybrid) + 1,362 (pension) - 2,214 (25% cash kept as excess, or 75% deducted? Let me be clearer)** Actually standard S&P: deduct cash that is clearly excess. For utilities, minimal deduction. Let me use **0 deduction** for conservative estimate, or **6,643,500,000** if we think 75% is excess. Let me use moderate: 50% of cash is excess = 4,429,000,000 EUR deduction. **2021 Adjusted_Debt = 71,837 + 2,784 + 1,362 - 4,429 = 71,554,000,000 EUR** Wait, that's lower than reported debt. Let me reconsider. Actually, if we don't deduct cash (conservative for credit analysis): **2021 Adjusted_Debt = 71,837 + 2,784 + 1,362 = 75,983,000,000 EUR** Or with full cash deduction (aggressive): **2021 Adjusted_Debt = 71,837 + 2,784 + 1,362 - 8,858 = 67,125,000,000 EUR** Let me use a balanced approach: 50% cash deduction **2021 Adjusted_Debt = 71,837 + 2,784 + 1,362 - 4,429 = 71,554,000,000 EUR** Hmm, this is messy. Let me simplify and use **75,983,000,000 EUR** (no cash deduction, conservative) or about **72,000,000,000 EUR** with moderate cash deduction. Let me recalculate more carefully with 2021 year-end balance sheet data: From 2022-01-01 balances (which is 2021 year-end): - Longterm Borrowings: 54,500,000,000 - Shortterm Borrowings: 13,306,000,000 - Current Portion Of Longterm Borrowings: 4,031,000,000 Total debt = 71,837,000,000 EUR Hybrid bonds in equity: need to check 2021 ending. From changes: started at 2,386, issued 3,181 = 5,567,000,000 EUR 50% debt treatment = 2,783,500,000 EUR Pension: 2,724,000,000 provision. Treat as debt-like = 2,724,000,000 (or 50% = 1,362,000,000) Let me use **2021 Adjusted_Debt = 71,837 + 2,784 + 2,724 - 0 (no cash deduction) = 77,345,000,000 EUR** Or with 50% cash deduction (4,429): **2021 Adjusted_Debt = 72,916,000,000 EUR** I'll use **75,000,000,000 EUR** as a round estimate. ## Step 5: Calculate 2021 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA Using: - Adjusted_EBITDA = 16,058,000,000 - Adjusted_Debt = 75,000,000,000 **Ratio = 75,000 / 16,058 = 4.67x** ## Step 6: Calculate 2021 FFO / Adjusted_Debt FFO = 11,300,000,000 Adjusted_Debt = 75,000,000,000 **Ratio = 11,300 / 75,000 = 0.151 or 15.1%** ## Step 7: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_EBITDA **2022 Data:** - Revenue: 140,517,000,000 EUR - Operating Expense: 131,689,000,000 EUR - Profit Loss From Operating Activities: 11,193,000,000 EUR - Depreciation Amortisation And Impairment: 7,447,000,000 EUR EBITDA = 11,193 + 7,447 = **18,640,000,000 EUR** Adjustments: - Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates: 4,000,000 EUR (minimal) **2022 Adjusted_EBITDA ≈ 18,640,000,000 EUR** (with minimal JV adjustment, say +500,000,000 for proportional) = **19,000,000,000 EUR** approximate Use **18,640,000,000 EUR** as conservative base. ## Step 8: Estimate 2022 FFO From cash flow: - Finance Costs Paid: 5,016,000,000 EUR - Finance Income Received: 2,622,000,000 EUR - Income Taxes Paid: 1,934,000,000 EUR Net cash interest = 5,016 - 2,622 = 2,394,000,000 EUR FFO = 18,640 - 2,394 - 1,934 = **14,312,000,000 EUR** ## Step 9: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_Debt **2022 year-end debt (2023-01-01 balances):** - Longterm Borrowings: 68,191,000,000 - Shortterm Borrowings: 18,392,000,000 - Current Portion Of Longterm Borrowings: 2,835,000,000 Total reported debt = 89,418,000,000 EUR Hybrid bonds in equity: 5,567,000,000 EUR (same) 50% debt treatment = 2,783,500,000 EUR Pension provision: 2,202,000,000 EUR Cash: 11,041,000,000 EUR Adjusted_Debt = 89,418 + 2,784 + 2,202 - 0 (no cash deduction) = **94,404,000,000 EUR** Or with 50% cash deduction (5,520): **Adjusted_Debt = 88,884,000,000 EUR** Use **94,000,000,000 EUR** conservative or **90,000,000,000 EUR** moderate. Let me use **92,000,000,000 EUR** as balanced estimate. ## Step 10: Calculate 2022 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA = 92,000 / 18,640 = **4.94x** Or with 94,404 / 18,640 = **5.06x** ## Step 11: Calculate 2022 FFO / Adjusted_Debt = 14,312 / 92,000 = **0.156 or 15.6%** Or 14,312 / 94,404 = **0.152 or 15.2%** ## Step 12: Classify Credit Trend Let me recalculate with more precise numbers to be sure. ### Recalculating with more care: **2021:** - EBITDA = 7,551 + 8,507 = 16,058 - Add proportional JV EBITDA: Share of profit is 571. Assume similar D&A ratio, gross up by ~1.5x for EBITDA = ~850 - Adjusted_EBITDA = 16,908 (or keep at 16,058 if minimal) Actually let me be more conservative and use reported EBITDA with no JV gross-up. **2021 Adjusted_EBITDA = 16,058** FFO: - Interest paid (net) = Finance Costs 6,087 - Finance Income 1,862 = 4,225 (accrual) - Cash interest = 4,277 - 1,365 = 2,912 (from cash flow) - Cash taxes = 1,846 FFO = 16,058 - 2,912 - 1,846 = 11,300 Debt: - 71,837 reported + 2,784 hybrid (50%) + 2,724 pension = 77,345 - Less: cash adjustment. S&P typically uses "available cash" not total cash. For utilities, often minimal. Let me use 75% cash as not available (needed for operations): 0.75 × 8,858 = 6,643 deducted? No, that's too much. Actually S&P deducts "excess cash" which is typically cash minus minimum operating cash. For a company with 85B revenue, minimum cash might be 2-3B. So excess cash = 8,858 - 3,000 = 5,858. Let me use simpler: 50% of cash as excess = 4,429. 2021 Adjusted_Debt = 71,837 + 2,784 + 2,724 - 4,429 = 72,916 Or no cash deducted: 77,345 I'll use **75,000** as middle ground. 2021 ratios: - Debt/EBITDA = 75,000 / 16,058 = **4.67x** - FFO/Debt = 11,300 / 75,000 = **0.151** **2022:** EBITDA = 11,193 + 7,447 = 18,640 FFO: - Cash interest net = 5,016 - 2,622 = 2,394 - Cash taxes = 1,934 - FFO = 18,640 - 2,394 - 1,934 = 14,312 Debt: - 89,418 reported + 2,784 hybrid + 2,202 pension = 94,404 - Less cash: 50% of 11,041 = 5,520 - Adjusted_Debt = 88,884 Or no cash deducted: 94,404 Use **92,000** as middle. 2022 ratios: - Debt/EBITDA = 92,000 / 18,640 = **4.94x** (or 94,404/18,640 = 5.06x) - FFO/Debt = 14,312 / 92,000 = **0.156** (or 14,312/94,404 = 0.152) ### Signal Analysis: **Signal 1: Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)** - 2021: 4.67x - 2022: 4.94x (or 5.06x) - Change: +0.27x (or +0.39x) Threshold: ≥ +0.2x is Deteriorating **Signal 1: Deteriorating** ✓ **Signal 2: Cash-flow coverage (FFO/Debt)** - 2021: 0.151 - 2022: 0.156 (or 0.152) - Change: +0.005 (or +0.001) Threshold: between -0.03 and +0.03 is Stable **Signal 2: Stable** ### Combined Assessment: Signal 1: Deteriorating Signal 2: Stable Per rules: "If one is Stable and the other is Improving or Deteriorating, return the non-Stable category." **Result: Deteriorating** Wait, let me double-check my calculations. The leverage increase seems significant. Let me verify if 2022 debt is really that much higher. 2021 debt: 54,500 + 13,306 + 4,031 = 71,837 2022 debt: 68,191 + 18,392 + 2,835 = 89,418 Yes, debt increased significantly by ~17.6B while EBITDA increased by ~2.6B. This is a clear deterioration in leverage metrics. But let me also check: is the EBITDA increase sustainable? Revenue went from 85.7B to 140.5B (+64%), but operating expense went from 80.7B to 131.7B (+63%). So margin improvement is minimal. The commodity price environment in 2022 (energy crisis) likely inflated both revenue and costs. FFO improved more (11.3B to 14.3B, +26%) due to better working capital or interest dynamics, but debt grew faster. Given the magnitude of leverage increase (+0.27x to +0.39x, well above 0.2x threshold) versus minimal FFO/Debt improvement (stable zone), the leverage signal is more material and clearly indicates deterioration. Even if I use more aggressive cash deductions: 2021: 71,837 + 2,784 + 2,724 - 6,643 (75% cash) = 70,702; ratio = 4.40x 2022: 89,418 + 2,784 + 2,202 - 8,281 (75% cash) = 86,123; ratio = 4.62x Change: +0.22x → still Deteriorating Or with full cash deduction: 2021: 71,837 + 2,784 + 2,724 - 8,858 = 68,487; ratio = 4.27x 2022: 89,418 + 2,784 + 2,202 - 11,041 = 83,363; ratio = 4.47x Change: +0.20x → borderline, still Deteriorating (≥0.2x) Actually at exactly +0.20x it's "≥ +0.2x: Deteriorating" per the rule. Let me try another scenario - what if we don't add pension to debt? 2021: 71,837 + 2,784 = 74,621; ratio = 4.65x 2022: 89,418 + 2,784 = 92,202; ratio = 4.95x Change: +0.30x → Deteriorating The deterioration signal is robust across scenarios. For FFO/Debt with full cash deduction: 2021: 11,300 / 68,487 = 0.165 2022: 14,312 / 83,363 = 0.172 Change: +0.007 → Stable Still Stable for signal 2. Given the clear Deteriorating on leverage and Stable on coverage, the combined result is **Deteriorating**. One more check: what if EBITDA adjustments change things? If 2022 had more one-time gains or if commodity results are unsustainable? Net Results From Commodity Contracts: 2,365 in 2022 vs 2,523 in 2021 - actually decreased. Other Income: 4,864 in 2022 vs 3,819 in 2021 - increased by 1B. Other Expense: 4,685 in 2022 vs 1,968 in 2021 - increased by 2.7B. The "Other Expense By Nature" nearly doubled. This could include nonrecurring items. If we adjust for this, 2022 EBITDA might be lower. But S&P typically uses reported EBITDA with normalization for clear nonrecurring items. Without specific identification, I'll use reported. The core issue is debt increased significantly (likely to fund working capital in high commodity price environment, or capex). This is a structural deterioration. Deteriorating