**Step 1 – Industry identification**  
Fortum Oyj is a power‑and‑gas utility that operates both regulated network activities and merchant generation. The most appropriate sector framework is the **Regulated Utilities** methodology, but the baseline formulas for Adjusted EBITDA, FFO and Adjusted Debt remain the same as those given in the general corporate guidelines.

**Step 2 – 2021 Adjusted EBITDA**  
S&P’s adjusted‑EBITDA starts from the reported EBITDA and is normalized for non‑recurring items. The company provides a “Comparable EBITDA” figure that already incorporates the adjustments for items affecting comparability (non‑recurring gains/losses).  
- 2021 Comparable EBITDA = **2 016 million EUR**  
No lease data, no separate pension‑adjustment data, and the joint‑venture contribution is already reflected in the comparable figure, so no further changes are required.

**Step 3 – 2021 FFO**  
FFO = Adjusted EBITDA – cash interest – cash taxes.  
- Cash interest paid (Interest Paid Classified as Operating Activities) = **147 million EUR**  
- Cash taxes paid (Income Taxes Paid Refunds Classified as Operating Activities) = **279 million EUR**  

\[
\text{FFO}_{2021}=2 016-147-279 = \mathbf{1 590\;million\;EUR}
\]

**Step 4 – 2021 Adjusted Debt**  

\[
\text{Adjusted Debt}= \bigl(\text{Reported debt}+\text{provisions}+\text{margin liabilities}\bigr)-\text{eligible cash}
\]

- Reported debt (Other Non‑current Financial Liabilities + Other Current Financial Liabilities):  
\(8 701+8 519 = \mathbf{17 220\;million\;EUR}\)

- Provisions (nuclear, other long‑term, other short‑term, defined‑benefit plan):  
\(3 891+4 108+2 299+1 190 = \mathbf{11 488\;million\;EUR}\)

- Margin liabilities: **985 million EUR**

Total debt‑like liabilities = 17 220 + 11 488 + 985 = **29 693 million EUR**

- Eligible cash (Cash and Cash Equivalents) = **7 592 million EUR**

\[
\text{Adjusted Debt}_{2021}=29 693-7 592 = \mathbf{22 101\;million\;EUR}
\]

**Step 5 – 2021 Leverage ratio**  

\[
\frac{\text{Adjusted Debt}}{\text{Adjusted EBITDA}}_{2021}= \frac{22 101}{2 016}= \mathbf{10.96\;x}
\]

**Step 6 – 2021 Cash‑flow coverage ratio**  

\[
\frac{\text{FFO}}{\text{Adjusted Debt}}_{2021}= \frac{1 590}{22 101}= \mathbf{0.072\;(7.2\%)}
\]

**Step 7 – 2022 Adjusted EBITDA**  
2022 Comparable EBITDA = **2 436 million EUR** (again already adjusted for items affecting comparability).

**Step 8 – 2022 FFO**  
- Cash interest paid = **201 million EUR**  
- Cash taxes paid = **167 million EUR**

\[
\text{FFO}_{2022}=2 436-201-167 = \mathbf{2 068\;million\;EUR}
\]

**Step 9 – 2022 Adjusted Debt**  

- Reported debt (Other Non‑current Financial Liabilities + Other Current Financial Liabilities):  
\(3 658+4 127 = \mathbf{7 785\;million\;EUR}\)

- Provisions (nuclear, other long‑term, other short‑term, defined‑benefit):  
\(966+118+13+13 = \mathbf{1 110\;million\;EUR}\)

- Margin liabilities: **352 million EUR**

Total debt‑like liabilities = 7 785 + 1 110 + 352 = **9 247 million EUR**

- Eligible cash = **3 919 million EUR**

\[
\text{Adjusted Debt}_{2022}=9 247-3 919 = \mathbf{5 328\;million\;EUR}
\]

**Step 10 – 2022 Leverage ratio**  

\[
\frac{\text{Adjusted Debt}}{\text{Adjusted EBITDA}}_{2022}= \frac{5 328}{2 436}= \mathbf{2.19\;x}
\]

**Step 11 – 2022 Cash‑flow coverage ratio**  

\[
\frac{\text{FFO}}{\text{Adjusted Debt}}_{2022}= \frac{2 068}{5 328}= \mathbf{0.388\;(38.8\%)}
\]

**Step 12 – Credit‑trend assessment**  

- **Signal 1 (Leverage):**  
\(\Delta\text{ leverage}=2.19-10.96 = -8.77\;x\) → ≤ –0.2 x → **Improving**.

- **Signal 2 (Coverage):**  
\(\Delta\text{ coverage}=0.388-0.072 = +0.316\) → ≥ +0.03 → **Improving**.

Both signals agree on an **Improving** trend, so the overall credit trend is **Improving**.

<answer>Improving</answer>