I'll execute this workflow step-by-step to estimate REN's credit trend from 2021 to 2022. ## Step 1: Identify the Relevant Industry REN is "REDES ENERGÉTICAS NACIONAIS" (National Energy Networks), a Portuguese company. Based on its name and operations, REN operates as a **Regulated Utility** in the electricity and gas transmission/distribution sector. This falls under the **Regulated Utilities** methodology provided in the S&P guidelines. The company operates critical energy infrastructure (electricity transmission and gas distribution) in Portugal under regulatory oversight. ## Step 2: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_EBITDA Starting with the 2021 income statement (fiscal year 2021-01-01 to 2022-01-01): **Reconstruction of EBITDA (2021):** - Operating Profit (EBIT): 218,863,000 EUR - Add: Depreciation & Amortization: 241,940,000 EUR - **EBITDA (2021) = 218,863 + 241,940 = 460,803,000 EUR** **Adjustments for Regulated Utilities:** Per S&P methodology for regulated utilities, I need to consider: - Pension adjustments: The company shows "Gains Losses On Remeasurements Of Defined Benefit Plans" of 2,436,000 EUR (before tax) - The pension adjustment should normalize pension volatility. This is a gain, so we subtract it (normalize upward): - After-tax pension gain: 2,436,000 - 731,000 = 1,705,000 EUR - Non-recurring items: Changes in Other Provisions show -365,000 EUR (a benefit that could be normalized) **Adjusted_EBITDA (2021) = 460,803 + 1,705 = 462,508,000 EUR** ## Step 3: Estimate 2021 FFO **FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes** From the cash flow statement (2021-01-01 to 2022-01-01): - Cash paid for interest (part of financing activities): 39,725,000 EUR - Income taxes paid: 74,253,000 EUR **FFO (2021) = 462,508 - 39,725 - 74,253 = 348,530,000 EUR** ## Step 4: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_Debt **From the balance sheet at 2022-01-01 (end of 2021):** Debt components: - Long-term Borrowings: 2,390,852,000 EUR - Current Borrowings and Current Portion: 375,221,000 EUR - **Total Reported Debt = 2,766,073,000 EUR** Less: Cash and Cash Equivalents: 398,759,000 EUR Adjustments: - Lease liabilities: Not explicitly broken out but minimal based on payments (approx. 2,065,000 EUR annually) - No significant pension deficits evident - No hybrid instruments evident - For regulated utilities with concession assets: The intangible assets (4,123,069,000 EUR) represent concession arrangements; these are not debt-like **Adjusted_Debt (2021) = 2,766,073 - 398,759 = 2,367,314,000 EUR** ## Step 5: Calculate 2021 Leverage Ratio **Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA (2021) = 2,367,314 / 462,508 = 5.12x** ## Step 6: Calculate 2021 FFO / Adjusted_Debt Ratio **FFO / Adjusted_Debt (2021) = 348,530 / 2,367,314 = 0.147 (or 14.7%)** ## Step 7: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_EBITDA **From the 2022 income statement (fiscal year 2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01):** - Operating Profit (EBIT): 239,721,000 EUR - Add: Depreciation & Amortization: 249,276,000 EUR - **EBITDA (2022) = 239,721 + 249,276 = 488,997,000 EUR** **Adjustments for Regulated Utilities:** Pension adjustments: - Gains on Remeasurements of Defined Benefit Plans: 27,254,000 EUR (before tax) - Tax effect: 8,175,000 EUR - After-tax pension gain: 27,254 - 8,175 = 19,079,000 EUR (normalize downward by subtracting) Non-recurring items: - Changes in Other Provisions: -2,230,000 EUR (benefit, normalize upward by adding back portion) - However, this is operational, not material **Adjusted_EBITDA (2022) = 488,997 - 19,079 = 469,918,000 EUR** (Conservative approach: subtract the large pension gain to reflect normalized ongoing earnings) ## Step 8: Estimate 2022 FFO From cash flow statement (2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01): - Cash paid for interest: 40,545,000 EUR - Income taxes paid: 77,970,000 EUR **FFO (2022) = 469,918 - 40,545 - 77,970 = 351,403,000 EUR** ## Step 9: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_Debt **From the balance sheet at 2023-01-01 (end of 2022):** Debt components: - Long-term Borrowings: 1,695,362,000 EUR - Current Borrowings and Current Portion: 638,944,000 EUR - **Total Reported Debt = 2,334,306,000 EUR** Less: Cash and Cash Equivalents: 365,292,000 EUR **Adjusted_Debt (2022) = 2,334,306 - 365,292 = 1,969,014,000 EUR** ## Step 10: Calculate 2022 Leverage Ratio **Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA (2022) = 1,969,014 / 469,918 = 4.19x** ## Step 11: Calculate 2022 FFO / Adjusted_Debt Ratio **FFO / Adjusted_Debt (2022) = 351,403 / 1,969,014 = 0.178 (or 17.8%)** ## Step 12: Classify Credit Trend **Signal 1: Leverage Change** - 2021: 5.12x - 2022: 4.19x - Change: 4.19 - 5.12 = **-0.93x** This is ≤ -0.2x → **Improving** **Signal 2: FFO / Adjusted_Debt Change** - 2021: 0.147 - 2022: 0.178 - Change: 0.178 - 0.147 = **+0.031** This is ≥ +0.03 → **Improving** **Conclusion:** Both signals strongly agree: - Leverage improved significantly (decreased by 93 basis points) - Cash flow coverage improved moderately (increased by 310 basis points) The company reduced debt substantially (from 2,367B to 1,969B EUR) while maintaining/growing EBITDA and FFO. This is a clear sign of improving credit quality. Improving