I'll work through this step-by-step, analyzing VERBUND AG's financial data and applying S&P's methodology. ## Step 1: Identify Relevant Industry VERBUND AG is an Austrian electricity company. Based on the data: - Revenue from sale of electricity: €3.8B (2021), €8.7B (2022) - Grid revenue: €735M (2021), €1.3B (2022) - The company operates in power generation and grid operations VERBUND AG is primarily an **unregulated power and gas** company, specifically with significant renewable/hydro generation and some regulated grid activities. However, given the substantial electricity sales revenue and the Austrian market structure, it fits best in the **Unregulated Power And Gas** category, with some regulated utility characteristics. Given VERBUND's dominant position in Austrian hydroelectric power and its grid operations, I'll apply the **Unregulated Power And Gas** methodology primarily, noting that grid operations have some regulated characteristics. ## Step 2: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_EBITDA Baseline formula: Adjusted_EBITDA = EBITDA + adjustment_leases + nonrecurring_losses - nonrecurring_gains ± pension_adjustments ± joint_venture_proportional_EBITDA ± other_normalization_adjustments From the data: - EBITDA 2021: €1,578,959,000 - Depreciation and Amortisation 2021: €417,269,000 - Impairment Loss 2021: €9,869,000 - Reversal of Impairment Loss 2021: €115,009,000 For unregulated power and gas, we need to consider: - Leases: Right-of-use assets exist (€110,663,000 at start 2021), but lease expenses are already in EBITDA - Pension adjustments: "Other Comprehensive Income Before Tax Gains Losses On Remeasurements Of Defined Benefit Plans" = €86,476,000 (this is OCI, not P&L, so no EBITDA adjustment needed) - Joint ventures: Share of profit of associates = €34,837,000 (equity method, already excluded from EBITDA) The EBITDA figure appears to be operating EBITDA. Let me check if adjustments are needed: - The impairment loss and reversal are typically operating items - For S&P purposes, we typically add back non-recurring items if material Looking at the data, the impairment loss (€9.9M) and reversal (€115.0M) net to a gain. These are generally operating items for utilities. The net reversal of €105.1M is already in the operating profit/EBITDA. For unregulated power and gas with significant hydro assets, S&P may adjust for: - Non-recurring items - Proportional EBITDA from JVs The "Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates And Joint Ventures" (€34.8M) is equity-accounted and not in EBITDA. For S&P, we may add proportional EBITDA from JVs if significant. However, looking at the structure, EBITDA is already reported. Let me use reported EBITDA as base and make minimal adjustments: Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = €1,578,959,000 (reported EBITDA) I'll make a small adjustment for the net impairment reversal which may be considered non-recurring: - Net impairment: €9,869,000 - €115,009,000 = -€105,140,000 (net reversal, already in EBITDA) Actually, for S&P, we typically don't adjust for normal course impairments. Let me keep: **Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = €1,578,959,000** Wait - let me re-read. The EBITDA is given, but I should verify if it includes all items. Looking at "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" = €1,266,830,000. This is EBIT. So EBITDA = EBIT + D&A = €1,266,830,000 + €417,269,000 = €1,684,099,000. But reported EBITDA is €1,578,959,000. This suggests EBITDA is computed differently, possibly excluding some items. Actually, let me check: "Depreciation And Amoritisation Of Property Plant And Equipment And Intangible Assets Net Of Reversals Of Impairment Losses" = €301,551,000. This is different from "Depreciation And Amortisation Expense" of €417,269,000. The difference: €417,269,000 - €301,551,000 = €115,718,000, which approximates the impairment reversal of €115,009,000. So EBITDA in S&P terms might need adjustment. Let me use reported EBITDA and adjust for leases (finance lease depreciation is already in D&A, but operating lease expense may need adjustment). For simplicity and given limited data, I'll use: **Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = €1,578,959,000 + €0 (no major adjustments visible) = €1,578,959,000** Actually, let me reconsider. The "Valuation And Realisationof Energyderivatives" = -€269,667,000. This is a mark-to-market item. For S&P, we may normalize this if it's non-cash. However, this is likely already in operating profit. Let me proceed with reported EBITDA as the best available figure, noting that for unregulated power, S&P may make adjustments for mark-to-market items. **Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = €1,578,959,000** ## Step 3: Estimate 2021 FFO FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes From the data: - Interest Expense 2021: €77,814,000 (accrual) - Interest Paid Classified As Operating Activities: €17,900,000 (cash) - Income Tax Expense Continuing Operations: €279,365,000 (accrual) - Income Taxes Paid Classified As Operating Activities: €238,200,000 (cash) For S&P FFO, we typically use: - Cash interest paid (not accrual): €17,900,000 - Cash taxes paid: €238,200,000 However, S&P sometimes uses accrued interest for FFO. Let me check the methodology more carefully. Actually, standard S&P FFO = Funds From Operations = Net Income + D&A + deferred taxes + other non-cash items. Or from EBITDA: EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes (with some adjustments). Let me use the standard approach: FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes + other adjustments Using cash amounts: - Cash interest: €17,900,000 (from operating activities) - Cash taxes: €238,200,000 But wait - "Interest Paid Classified As Operating Activities" is only €17.9M, while "Interest Expense" is €77.8M. The difference may be capitalized interest or financing classification. For S&P Global Credit Portal, FFO typically uses: FFO = Net income before extraordinary items + depreciation and amortization + deferred income taxes + other non-cash items Let me calculate from Net Income: - Profit Loss (Net Income) 2021: €985,087,000 - D&A: €417,269,000 - Deferred taxes: Need to calculate. Income tax expense €279,365,000 - cash taxes €238,200,000 = deferred tax increase of €41,165,000 (use as add-back) - Other non-cash: impairment net of reversal = €9,869,000 - €115,009,000 = -€105,140,000 FFO = €985,087,000 + €417,269,000 + €41,165,000 - €105,140,000 = €1,338,381,000 Alternatively from EBITDA: FFO = EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes + interest received (if in EBITDA) - other cash items Actually, let me use the more standard S&P approach for utilities: FFO = Net income + D&A + deferred taxes + other non-cash expenses - gain/loss on asset sales + other items From cash flow statement approach: "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" = €98,162,000 Add back: Change in working capital, etc. to get to FFO. Actually, S&P defines FFO as: FFO = Cash flow from operations (before working capital changes) OR FFO = EBIT + D&A - cash taxes - cash interest (approximate) Let me use: FFO = EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes = €1,578,959,000 - €17,900,000 - €238,200,000 = €1,322,859,000 Or using accrual interest: = €1,578,959,000 - €77,814,000 - €279,365,000 = €1,221,780,000 S&P typically uses "interest paid" rather than "interest expense" for FFO. Let me use cash interest but need to check if €17.9M is complete. Looking more carefully: "Finance Income Cost" = -€2,378,000. This is net finance cost. "Interest Expense" = €77,814,000, "Revenue From Interest" = €38,381,000. The cash flow shows "Interest Paid Classified As Operating Activities" = €17,900,000 and "Interest Received Classified As Operating Activities" = €2,100,000. For S&P FFO, the standard formula is: FFO = Funds from operations = operating cash flow before changes in working capital From the cash flow statement, let me reconstruct: "Subtotal" (operating cash flow before working capital) = €1,272,174,000 Less: Interest paid €17,900,000 Less: Taxes paid €238,200,000 Less: Interest received? (this is typically not in FFO) Plus: Dividends received €13,100,000 Actually, S&P FFO includes dividends received from investments. Let me look at this differently. Standard S&P FFO formula: FFO = Net income + depreciation & amortization + deferred income taxes + other non-cash items Net income: €985,087,000 + D&A: €417,269,000 + Deferred tax (€279,365,000 - €238,200,000): €41,165,000 + Net impairment (loss - reversal): €9,869,000 - €115,009,000 = -€105,140,000 + Share of profit of associates (subtract as it's equity accounted): -€34,837,000 + Other non-cash in finance costs: need to evaluate FFO = €985,087,000 + €417,269,000 + €41,165,000 - €105,140,000 - €34,837,000 = €1,303,544,000 Let me also check "Other Finance Income Cost" = -€15,836,000 and "Wertminderungen" €18,297,000 / "Wertaufholungen" €16,817,000. Actually for simplicity and consistency with S&P practices, let me use: **FFO 2021 = EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes + dividends received** = €1,578,959,000 - €17,900,000 - €238,200,000 + €13,100,000 = €1,335,959,000 Or more standard: **FFO 2021 = €1,303,544,000** (from net income approach) Let me use a middle ground and check which is more appropriate. Actually, for European utilities, S&P typically uses: FFO = EBIT + D&A - cash taxes = €1,266,830,000 + €417,269,000 - €238,200,000 = €1,445,899,000? No, this uses EBIT not right. Let me use: FFO = Operating profit + D&A - cash taxes - cash interest + dividends received = €1,266,830,000 + €417,269,000 - €238,200,000 - €17,900,000 + €13,100,000 = €1,441,099,000 Hmm, this seems high. Let me reconsider. Actually, "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" = €1,266,830,000 already includes D&A (it's EBIT). So: Operating profit (EBIT) = €1,266,830,000 + D&A = €417,269,000? No, EBIT already excludes D&A. Wait: EBIT = Operating profit. EBITDA = EBIT + D&A. So €1,266,830,000 + €417,269,000 = €1,684,099,000, but reported EBITDA is €1,578,959,000. The difference is €105,140,000, which equals the net impairment reversal. So reported EBITDA = EBIT + D&A - net impairment reversal (or + net impairment loss) = €1,266,830,000 + €417,269,000 - €105,140,000 = €1,578,959,000 ✓ For S&P, they may adjust EBITDA to exclude non-recurring items like impairment reversals. So "Adjusted EBITDA" might be €1,684,099,000. But then FFO would add back impairment? Let me think... S&P typically defines FFO as: FFO = Net income + D&A + net interest expense + deferred taxes + other non-cash items - extraordinary gains + extraordinary losses Actually, I think I need to be more careful. Let me use the standard S&P definition from their methodology: FFO = Funds from operations = net income before extraordinary items + depreciation and amortization + deferred income taxes + other non-cash items Using this: - Net income: €985,087,000 - D&A: €417,269,000 - Deferred taxes: €41,165,000 (expense - cash paid) - Other non-cash: net impairment = €9,869,000 - €115,009,000 = -€105,140,000 FFO = €985,087,000 + €417,269,000 + €41,165,000 - €105,140,000 = €1,338,381,000 But this excludes working capital changes and uses accrual interest/taxes. S&P's FFO is meant to be before working capital, so this seems right. However, I need to check if "Profit Loss" is before or after minorities. "Profit Loss Attributable To Owners Of Parent" = €873,556,000. "Profit Loss" = €985,087,000 includes minorities. For credit analysis, S&P uses total FFO (not just parent). So €985,087,000 is correct. Let me also add back "Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates" since it's equity-accounted and not cash: Actually no - FFO includes net income which already excludes this (it's after this line). Wait, let me re-read the P&L structure: - Profit Loss From Operating Activities: €1,266,830,000 - Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates: €34,837,000 - Other Income Expense From Subsidiaries: €19,534,000 - Finance items... - Profit Loss Before Tax: €1,264,452,000 So operating profit includes operations, then associates are added, then finance costs, then tax. Net income €985,087,000 = Profit before tax €1,264,452,000 - tax €279,365,000. For FFO, S&P also adds back "Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates" if it's equity-accounted (non-cash dividend): Actually, dividends received from associates are in cash flow: €13,100,000. The €34,837,000 is the equity-accounted share, not cash. In standard FFO, we don't add this back because it's already in net income. But for "Cash flow from operations before changes in working capital" we might adjust. Let me use a cleaner approach. S&P sometimes calculates FFO as: FFO = Operating cash flow + increase in working capital - decrease in working capital - capitalized interest - other items From cash flow: Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities = €98,162,000 + Adjustments for working capital: - Inventories: -€9,895,000 (increase, so subtract from OCF, add back for FFO) - Receivables: -€1,068,208,000 (increase, subtract from OCF) - Payables: +€166,966,000 (increase, add to OCF) - Derivative assets: -€1,762,735,000 - Derivative liabilities: +€1,480,968,000 - Current provisions and tax: +€18,893,000 Working capital change = -€9,895,000 - €1,068,208,000 + €166,966,000 - €1,762,735,000 + €1,480,968,000 + €18,893,000 = -€1,174,011,000 So FFO = OCF - working capital change = €98,162,000 - (-€1,174,011,000) = €1,272,173,000 ≈ "Subtotal" €1,272,174,000 Then FFO before interest and tax adjustments = Subtotal + interest paid - interest received + taxes paid - dividends received? Actually "Subtotal" is defined as cash flow before working capital changes. Let me verify: €1,272,174,000 = €98,162,000 + €1,068,208,000 + €9,895,000 - €166,966,000 + €1,762,735,000 - €1,480,968,000 - €18,893,000? Hmm, let me just use "Subtotal" as the FFO equivalent: €1,272,174,000, then adjust for interest and dividends. Actually, S&P FFO = "Subtotal" - interest paid + interest received? No, subtotal already includes interest paid/received? Let me check. Looking at the cash flow structure: - Subtotal: €1,272,174,000 - Then adjustments for working capital - Then: Interest Paid: €17,900,000; Interest Received: €2,100,000; Dividends Received: €13,100,000; Taxes Paid: €238,200,000 Wait, the structure seems to be: - Start with subtotal (before working capital, after interest/tax?) - Working capital adjustments - Then interest and tax paid Actually re-reading: The subtotal is "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" before interest and tax? Let me check if "Subtotal" comes before or after interest/tax. Looking at order in data: - "Subtotal" - Then working capital adjustments (inventories, receivables, payables, derivatives, provisions) - Then "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" = €98,162,000 - Then "Income Taxes Paid" = €238,200,000 - Then "Interest Paid" = €17,900,000 - Then "Interest Received" = €2,100,000 - Then "Dividends Received" = €13,100,000 This suggests "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" = €98,162,000 includes working capital but excludes interest/tax/dividends? Or the structure is different. Actually, I think "Subtotal" is operating cash flow before working capital and before interest/tax. Then working capital adjustments lead to "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" which is after working capital but before interest/tax. Then interest, tax, dividends are shown as supplementary. For S&P FFO, we want: Operating cash flow before working capital changes = "Subtotal" = €1,272,174,000, then make adjustments. Standard S&P FFO = Subtotal - cash interest paid - cash taxes paid + dividends received? No, FFO is before these. Actually, I think the cleanest approach is: FFO = Net income + D&A + deferred taxes + other non-cash items = €985,087,000 + €417,269,000 + €41,165,000 + (-€105,140,000) + adjustments for finance items Let me add back "Other Finance Income Cost" = -€15,836,000 (this is non-operating, but in net income) And "Wertminderungen" €18,297,000 / "Wertaufholungen" €16,817,000 = net €1,480,000 (already in finance?) Actually, let me check if these are in operating or financing: "Wertminderungen" and "Wertaufholungen" are impairments/write-ups of financial instruments, likely in finance costs. For FFO, we want to add back non-cash finance costs. "Finance Income Cost" = -€2,378,000 includes: - Interest expense: €77,814,000 - Interest revenue: €38,381,000 - Other finance income/cost: -€15,836,000 - Wertminderungen: €18,297,000 - Wertaufholungen: €16,817,000 - Net: -€2,378,000? Let me verify: €38,381 - €77,814 - €15,836 + €18,297 - €16,817... doesn't equal -€2,378. Actually "Other Finance Income Cost" = -€15,836,000 and "Finance Income Cost" = -€2,378,000 are separate lines. Let me try: €38,381 - €77,814 + (-€15,836) + €18,297 - €16,817 = -€53,789? Not matching. Actually "Wertminderungen" and "Wertaufholungen" might not be in "Finance Income Cost". Let me just use reported numbers. For practical purposes, I'll use: **FFO 2021 = €1,272,174,000 (Subtotal) - €17,900,000 (interest paid, if not in subtotal) - €238,200,000 (taxes paid, if not in subtotal) + adjustments** Actually, I think "Subtotal" in S&P terms is closest to FFO. Let me verify by checking if interest expense is in it. From P&L to subtotal: Profit before tax: €1,264,452,000 + D&A: €417,269,000 + Net impairment: -€105,140,000 + Other non-cash items = approximately €1,576,581,000, close to €1,578,959,000 EBITDA but not exact. Actually, subtotal €1,272,174,000 vs EBITDA €1,578,959,000. Difference = €306,785,000. This is roughly taxes (€279M) plus interest (€78M) minus some items. EBITDA - taxes - interest + other = €1,578,959 - €279,365 - €77,814 + ? = €1,221,780 + ?. Not matching €1,272,174. Let me try: EBIT €1,266,830 + D&A €417,269 - net impairment reversal €105,140 = €1,578,959 EBITDA. Then - taxes €279,365 - interest €77,814 + interest income €38,381 + other finance €? = €1,260,161. Not matching subtotal. I think "Subtotal" includes some adjustments. Let me just use it as the best proxy for FFO before interest/tax, and then subtract cash interest and cash taxes. Actually, standard S&P FFO calculation for European companies: FFO = EBIT + D&A - cash taxes = €1,266,830,000 + €417,269,000 - €238,200,000 = €1,445,899,000? But this uses EBIT not EBITDA. Hmm, but EBIT includes associates (€34,837,000) and other items. Let me try: Operating profit before associates and finance = €1,266,830,000? No, "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" is operating profit. Actually for many European utilities, "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" = EBIT. So FFO = EBIT + D&A - cash taxes = €1,266,830,000 + €417,269,000 - €238,200,000 = €1,445,899,000 Then - cash interest €17,900,000 + interest received €2,100,000 = €1,430,099,000? Or use accrual interest? Standard S&P: FFO = Net income + D&A + deferred taxes + other non-cash = €985,087,000 + €417,269,000 + €41,165,000 - €105,140,000 + other adjustments For "other adjustments", we need to add back items that are non-cash in net income but not in operating profit. The share of associates (€34,837,000) is in net income but not cash. Do we add it back? No, because FFO should include cash from operations, and associates' dividends are cash (€13,100,000 received). Actually, S&P FFO includes dividends received from associates, not equity-accounted profits. So: FFO = Net income - share of associates (equity accounted) + dividends from associates + D&A + deferred taxes + other non-cash = €985,087,000 - €34,837,000 + €13,100,000 + €417,269,000 + €41,165,000 - €105,140,000 = €1,316,644,000 This is close to my earlier €1,338,381,000 without the associates adjustment. Let me use a simplified approach consistent with S&P's typical utility analysis: **FFO 2021 = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes + dividends_received_from_associates** = €1,578,959,000 - €17,900,000 - €238,200,000 + €13,100,000 = €1,335,959,000 Or with accrual interest and taxes (some S&P approaches): = €1,578,959,000 - €77,814,000 - €279,365,000 + €13,100,000 = €1,234,880,000 I think for consistency with S&P's published methodology, let me use: **FFO 2021 = €1,272,174,000 (Subtotal)** as the base, which is cash flow before working capital changes and before interest/tax/dividends. Then FFO = Subtotal - cash interest paid + interest received - cash taxes paid + dividends received? No, that's going too far. Actually, I think "Subtotal" is the right number for "Cash flow from operations before changes in working capital" which is essentially FFO. Let me verify by checking if it includes interest and tax. Looking at the cash flow statement structure more carefully: - Start with profit - Add back D&A, impairments, etc. → this creates "Subtotal" - Then working capital changes → "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" - Then separately disclose: taxes paid, interest paid, interest received, dividends received If this is the case, then "Subtotal" is before working capital AND before interest/tax. Then: Cash Flow From Operating Activities = Subtotal + working capital changes - interest paid - taxes paid + interest received + dividends received? Actually, the numbers: €1,272,174,000 (subtotal) + working capital (-€1,174,011,000) = €98,163,000 ≈ €98,162,000. Then + interest received €2,100,000 + dividends received €13,100,000 - interest paid €17,900,000 - taxes paid €238,200,000 = €98,162,000 + €2,100,000 + €13,100,000 - €17,900,000 - €238,200,000 = -€142,738,000. Doesn't match. So the structure must be different. Perhaps "Cash Flows From Used In Operating Activities" already includes interest and tax. Let me try: Subtotal €1,272,174,000 + working capital changes = €98,162,000. So working capital changes = -€1,174,012,000. Then the disclosed interest/tax/dividends are just supplementary information, already included in the €98,162,000. For FFO, we use subtotal €1,272,174,000, then adjust for items that are not operating or not cash. Actually, I think the standard S&P approach is simpler. Let me use: **FFO 2021 = €1,272,174,000** (Subtotal, as proxy for FFO before working capital) But wait, S&P FFO should exclude interest and tax if they're financing/tax items. Let me check if subtotal is after interest and tax. From P&L: Profit before tax €1,264,452,000. This is after interest expense €77,814,000 and interest income €38,381,000. Subtotal €1,272,174,000 is close to profit before tax + D&A + net impairment + other non-cash adjustments. €1,264,452,000 + €417,269,000 - €105,140,000 + ... = €1,576,581,000. Not matching €1,272,174,000. Difference is about €304M, which is close to taxes €279M. So maybe subtotal is after tax? €1,264,452,000 - €279,365,000 = €985,087,000 (net income) + €417,269,000 + ... = €1,402,356,000. Not matching. Let me try starting from EBITDA: €1,578,959,000 - €77,814,000 interest + €38,381,000 interest income - €15,836,000 other finance = €1,523,690,000. Then -€279,365,000 tax = €1,244,325,000. Close to €1,272,174,000? Difference €27,849,000. Hmm, maybe includes some other items. Let me just accept subtotal as the best proxy and move on. Actually, I realize I should look at this more simply. For S&P credit analysis, the key ratios are: - FFO/Debt - Debt/EBITDA And FFO is typically calculated as: FFO = Net income + D&A + deferred taxes + other non-cash items after tax Let me use: **FFO 2021 = €1,272,174,000** (the subtotal, which represents cash flow from operations before working capital changes) This is a common proxy for FFO in S&P analysis when detailed adjustments aren't available. ## Step 4: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_Debt Adjusted_Debt = reported_debt + leases + pension_deficit + guarantees + hybrid_debt_portion + other_debt_like_items - eligible_cash From balance sheet 2022-01-01 (end of 2021): - Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: €1,832,155,000 - Current Financial Liabilities: €1,462,453,000 - Total reported debt = €3,294,608,000 Wait, let me check dates. The data shows: - "Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" 2022-01-01: €1,834,155,000? Let me re-read: "2022-01-01: 1834155000 EUR" Actually looking more carefully: - "Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" 2021-01-01: 1202154000 EUR - "Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" 2022-01-01: 1834155000 EUR - "Current Financial Liabilities" 2021-01-01: 84056000 EUR - "Current Financial Liabilities" 2022-01-01: 1462453000 EUR So at 2022-01-01 (end of 2021 fiscal year): - Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: €1,834,155,000 - Current Financial Liabilities: €1,462,453,000 - Total debt = €3,296,608,000 Leases: Right-of-use assets = €103,826,000 at 2022-01-01. This corresponds to lease liabilities. We need to add finance lease liabilities if not already in debt. For S&P, we add operating lease liabilities (now on balance sheet under IFRS 16). The right-of-use asset is €103,826,000, so lease liabilities are approximately similar. Actually, under IFRS 16, lease liabilities are included in financial liabilities. Let me check if they're already in the debt figures. Typically, "Financial Liabilities" under IFRS includes lease liabilities. So I may not need to add separately. Pension deficit: "Reserve Of Remeasurements Of Defined Benefit Plans Member" 2022-01-01: -€327,822,000. This is a deficit (negative reserve). For S&P, we add pension deficits to debt. However, this is already in equity, not debt. The pension liability is net of plan assets. Let me check if there's a gross pension liability. Actually, the remeasurement reserve in equity reflects actuarial gains/losses. The pension obligation net of plan assets may be in provisions. Looking at "Noncurrent Provisions" 2022-01-01: €832,928,000. This may include pension provisions. For S&P, if the pension is underfunded, we add the deficit to debt. The remeasurement reserve being negative suggests past losses, but not necessarily current underfunding. Given limited data, I'll add the absolute value of negative remeasurement reserve as proxy: €327,822,000. But this may overstate. Actually, S&P typically adds the net pension liability (if unfunded) or the deficit. Let me check if there's a separate pension liability. Without more detail, I'll make a conservative assumption and add 50% of the remeasurement reserve absolute value, or use a simpler approach. For European utilities, pensions are often not a major issue. Let me check if the remeasurement reserve indicates underfunding. The remeasurement reserve of -€327,822,000 is negative, indicating cumulative actuarial losses. This doesn't necessarily mean the plan is underfunded - it's just accounting volatility. I'll be conservative and not add this to debt unless clearly underfunded. Guarantees: No data visible. Hybrid debt: No data visible. Eligible cash: "Cash And Cash Equivalents" 2022-01-01: €318,562,000 For S&P, we typically deduct cash from debt if it's truly excess. But for utilities, we often don't deduct all cash. Standard approach: Adjusted_Debt = Total debt - cash (if cash is clearly excess and available) For conservative approach: **Adjusted_Debt 2021 = €3,296,608,000 - €0 (conservative, no cash deduction) = €3,296,608,000** Or with cash deduction: = €3,296,608,000 - €318,562,000 = €2,978,046,000 Let me use a middle approach: deduct 50% of cash or use standard formula. Actually, for S&P, "eligible cash" is typically cash and liquid investments that are clearly available to repay debt. For utilities with seasonal working capital needs, we may not deduct all cash. Let me use: **Adjusted_Debt 2021 = €3,296,608,000 - €318,562,000 = €2,978,046,000** (deducting all cash for now, can adjust later) Wait - I need to check if there are lease liabilities included. Under IFRS 16, "Financial Liabilities" includes lease liabilities. The right-of-use asset is €103,826,000, suggesting lease liabilities around that amount. For S&P, if operating leases were historically off-balance-sheet, we might add them back. But under IFRS 16, they're already included. Let me verify debt components more carefully. The increase in financial liabilities from 2021 to 2022: - Noncurrent: €1,202,154,000 → €1,834,155,000 (+€632,001,000) - Current: €84,056,000 → €1,462,453,000 (+€1,378,397,000) This large increase in current financial liabilities suggests reclassification or new borrowing. Actually, looking at 2023-01-01 figures: - Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: €2,844,559,000 - Current Financial Liabilities: €1,109,297,000 So at 2022-01-01, current financial liabilities spiked to €1,462,453,000, then decreased. This suggests short-term borrowing that was later refinanced. For debt at 2022-01-01 (end of 2021), I'll use: **Total Financial Liabilities = €1,834,155,000 + €1,462,453,000 = €3,296,608,000** Now, are there derivative financial liabilities that should be included? "Noncurrent Derivative Financial Liabilities" = €73,478,000 and "Current Derivative Financial Liabilities" = €3,313,346,000. These are derivative liabilities, not debt. For S&P, derivative liabilities are typically not included in "debt" unless they're debt-like (e.g., interest rate swaps hedging debt). Energy derivatives related to operations are operating liabilities. So I'll exclude derivatives from debt. Adjusted_Debt 2021 = €3,296,608,000 - €318,562,000 (cash) = **€2,978,046,000** Or if more conservative, no cash deduction: €3,296,608,000. Let me use the with-cash deduction as it's standard S&P practice: **€2,978,046,000** Actually, let me reconsider. S&P typically uses "Debt" including all interest-bearing liabilities. Let me check if financial liabilities includes everything. Also, I should consider if there are securitizations or other debt-like items. No data visible. For consistency, let me use: **Adjusted_Debt 2021 = €3,296,608,000 - €159,281,000 (50% cash) = €3,137,327,000**? No, let me be clearer. Standard S&P: Deduct cash if clearly excess. For utilities, often deduct 0% or 100%. Let me use 100% deduction as cash is likely available: **Adjusted_Debt 2021 = €2,978,046,000** ## Step 5: Calculate 2021 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA = €2,978,046,000 / €1,578,959,000 = **1.89x** Or if no cash deduction: €3,296,608,000 / €1,578,959,000 = 2.09x Let me use 1.89x with cash deduction. ## Step 6: Calculate 2021 FFO / Adjusted_Debt Using FFO = €1,272,174,000 (subtotal) or €1,335,959,000 (EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes + dividends) With FFO = €1,272,174,000 and Adjusted_Debt = €2,978,046,000: = 0.427 or **42.7%** Or with Adjusted_Debt = €3,296,608,000 (no cash deduction): 38.6% Hmm, this seems high for FFO/debt. Let me recheck. Actually, FFO/debt of 40%+ is quite strong. Let me verify with alternative FFO calculation. Using FFO = EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes + dividends received = €1,578,959,000 - €17,900,000 - €238,200,000 + €13,100,000 = €1,335,959,000 FFO/Debt = €1,335,959,000 / €2,978,046,000 = 44.9% or 0.449 Or with accrual interest and taxes: = €1,578,959,000 - €77,814,000 - €279,365,000 + €13,100,000 = €1,234,880,000 FFO/Debt = 41.5% or 0.415 I think using subtotal €1,272,174,000 is reasonable as it represents cash generation before working capital. **FFO / Adjusted_Debt 2021 = 0.427 or 42.7%** ## Step 7: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_EBITDA EBITDA 2022: €3,160,679,000 Using same approach: **Adjusted_EBITDA 2022 = €3,160,679,000** ## Step 8: Estimate 2022 FFO Using subtotal approach: Subtotal 2022: €2,516,130,000 Or EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes + dividends: = €3,160,679,000 - €36,100,000 - €343,100,000 + €29,900,000 = €3,111,379,000? That seems too high. Wait, let me check: Interest Paid 2022 = €36,100,000; Taxes Paid = €343,100,000; Dividends Received = €29,900,000. EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes + dividends = €3,160,679,000 - €36,100,000 - €343,100,000 + €29,900,000 = €2,811,379,000 Or using subtotal €2,516,130,000. The difference is because subtotal includes various adjustments. Let me use subtotal as FFO proxy: **FFO 2022 = €2,516,130,000** Or if I calculate from net income: Net income 2022: €1,948,767,000 + D&A: €462,694,000 + Deferred taxes (€583,352,000 - €343,100,000): €240,252,000 + Net impairment (€197,761,000 - €125,973,000): €71,788,000 - Share of associates (equity accounted): €4,293,000? Actually this is profit, so subtract + Dividends from associates: need to check, but "Dividends Received" = €29,900,000 total FFO = €1,948,767,000 + €462,694,000 + €240,252,000 + €71,788,000 - €4,293,000 = €2,719,208,000? This is getting complex. Let me use subtotal €2,516,130,000 as it's directly from cash flow and represents pre-working capital cash generation. Actually, let me verify subtotal calculation. The 2022 subtotal is €2,516,130,000 vs 2021 €1,272,174,000. This is roughly double, matching EBITDA growth. **FFO 2022 = €2,516,130,000** ## Step 9: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_Debt At 2023-01-01 (end of 2022): - Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: €2,844,559,000 - Current Financial Liabilities: €1,109,297,000 - Total debt = €3,953,856,000 Cash 2023-01-01: €409,252,000 Adjusted_Debt 2022 = €3,953,856,000 - €409,252,000 = **€3,544,604,000** Or no cash deduction: €3,953,856,000 ## Step 10: Calculate 2022 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA = €3,544,604,000 / €3,160,679,000 = **1.12x** Or with no cash deduction: €3,953,856,000 / €3,160,679,000 = 1.25x ## Step 11: Calculate 2022 FFO / Adjusted_Debt = €2,516,130,000 / €3,544,604,000 = **0.710 or 71.0%** Or with no cash deduction: €2,516,130,000 / €3,953,856,000 = 63.6% ## Step 12: Classify Year-on-Year Credit Trend Let me summarize with cash deduction approach: - 2021: Debt/EBITDA = 1.89x, FFO/Debt = 42.7% - 2022: Debt/EBITDA = 1.12x, FFO/Debt = 71.0% Changes: - Debt/EBITDA: 1.12x - 1.89x = **-0.77x** (improving, ≤ -0.2x) - FFO/Debt: 0.710 - 0.427 = **+0.283** or +28.3 percentage points (improving, ≥ +0.03) Both signals show **Improving**. Let me verify with no cash deduction: - 2021: Debt/EBITDA = 2.09x, FFO/Debt = 38.6% - 2022: Debt/EBITDA = 1.25x, FFO/Debt = 63.6% Changes: - Debt/EBITDA: 1.25x - 2.09x = **-0.84x** (improving) - FFO/Debt: 0.636 - 0.386 = **+0.250** or +25.0 percentage points (improving) Both signals still show **Improving**. Let me also check with alternative FFO calculations: If FFO 2021 = €1,335,959,000 (EBITDA - cash interest - cash taxes + dividends) and FFO 2022 = €2,811,379,000? That seems too high for 2022. Actually, let me recalculate 2022 FFO with this method: = €3,160,679,000 - €36,100,000 - €343,100,000 + €29,900,000 = €2,811,379,000 FFO/Debt 2022 = €2,811,379,000 / €3,544,604,000 = 79.3% FFO/Debt 2021 = €1,335,959,000 / €2,978,046,000 = 44.9% Change: 79.3% - 44.9% = +34.4 percentage points = +0.344 (improving) Still improving. What if I use more conservative FFO (accrual interest and taxes)? FFO 2021 = €1,578,959,000 - €77,814,000 - €279,365,000 + €13,100,000 = €1,234,880,000 FFO/Debt = 41.5% FFO 2022 = €3,160,679,000 - €101,703,000 - €583,352,000 + €29,900,000 = €2,505,524,000 FFO/Debt = 70.7% Change: 70.7% - 41.5% = +29.2 percentage points = +0.292 (improving) Still improving. Let me also check with subtotal FFO: FFO 2021 = €1,272,174,000, FFO/Debt = 42.7% FFO 2022 = €2,516,130,000, FFO/Debt = 71.0% Change: +28.3 percentage points = +0.283 (improving) All approaches show consistent improvement. ### Verification of results: The dramatic improvement is driven by: 1. EBITDA more than doubled (€1.58B → €3.16B) due to higher electricity prices/revenue 2. Debt increased but much less proportionally (€2.98B → €3.54B, or +19%) 3. FFO increased significantly due to EBITDA growth This makes sense given the 2022 energy crisis where European power generators benefited from high wholesale electricity prices. ### Final Signal Assessment: **Signal 1 (Leverage):** Debt/EBITDA improved from ~1.9x to ~1.1x, change of approximately **-0.8x** - Threshold: ≤ -0.2x is Improving - **Result: Improving** ✓ **Signal 2 (Cash-flow coverage):** FFO/Debt improved from ~43% to ~71%, change of approximately **+0.28** - Threshold: ≥ +0.03 is Improving - **Result: Improving** ✓ Both signals agree: **Improving** Improving