**Step 1: Identify the relevant industry for "VINCI"**

VINCI is a global player in concessions and construction. The provided methodologies cover "Regulated Utilities," "Oil And Gas Exploration And Production," "Unregulated Power And Gas," and "Transportation Infrastructure."

VINCI's concession business (airports, motorways) fits squarely into the **Transportation Infrastructure** sector methodology. The construction business is cyclical and unregulated, but for the purpose of this exercise, we must select the most relevant provided methodology. The "Transportation Infrastructure" methodology is the best fit for the concession arm, which generates stable cash flows. However, VINCI is a conglomerate. S&P typically assesses such diversified groups by looking at the consolidated financials. The prompt asks to estimate the trend based on the facts. We will apply the **Transportation Infrastructure** methodology guidelines where specific adjustments are mentioned (like leases), but generally rely on the baseline formulas provided in the workflow steps, adapting for the specific line items available in the data.

Note: The Transportation Infrastructure methodology mentions "Low volatility table" or "Medial volatility table" depending on the predictability of cash flows. VINCI has a mix. However, the core task is to calculate the ratios using the provided baseline formulas and adjustments.

**Step 2: Estimate the 2021 "Adjusted_EBITDA"**

Formula: `Adjusted_EBITDA = EBITDA (reported or reconstructed) + adjustment_leases + nonrecurring_losses - nonrecurring_gains ± other_normalization_adjustments`

First, we need to reconstruct EBITDA for 2021.
From the data for 2021 (2021-01-01 - 2022-01-01):
*   `Profit Loss From Operating Activities` (Operating Profit/EBIT): 4,438,000,000 EUR
*   `Adjustments For Depreciation And Amortisation Expense`: 3,219,000,000 EUR
*   `Adjustments For Provisions And Adjustments For Impairment Loss...`: 206,000,000 EUR
*   `Adjustments For Sharebased Payments`: 84,000,000 EUR
*   `Adjustments For Losses Gains On Disposal Of Noncurrent Assets`: -27,000,000 EUR
*   `Adjustments For Fair Value Gains Losses`: -54,000,000 EUR

Reported EBITDA can be approximated as Operating Profit + Depreciation & Amortization.
EBITDA_2021 = 4,438,000,000 + 3,219,000,000 = 7,657,000,000 EUR.

However, S&P Adjusted EBITDA often starts from Operating Profit and adds back D&A and other non-cash/one-off items. Let's look at the components provided in the Cash Flow statement adjustments which bridge Operating Profit to Cash Flow from Operations.
A common reconstruction:
EBITDA = Operating Profit + Depreciation & Amortization.
Let's check for non-recurring items.
`Other Operating Income Expense Non Recurring` 2021: -26,000,000 EUR (Expense/Loss). This is a non-recurring loss, so we add it back.
`Other Operating Income Expense Recurring` 2021: 17,000,000 EUR. This is recurring, so it stays in Operating Profit.

So, Unadjusted EBITDA = 7,657,000,000 EUR.
Add back Non-recurring losses: 26,000,000 EUR.
Subtract Non-recurring gains: 0.

Now, consider Lease Adjustments. The Transportation Infrastructure methodology and general S&P practice often add back the interest portion of lease payments to EBITDA (or treat leases as debt). The baseline formula says `+ adjustment_leases`.
In the Cash Flow from Financing Activities for 2021:
`Payments Of Lease Liabilities Classified As Financing Activities`: 631,000,000 EUR.
In the Cash Flow from Operating Activities adjustments:
`Adjustments For Interest Expense On Lease Liabilities`: 43,000,000 EUR.

Typically, S&P calculates Adjusted EBITDA by adding back the *interest* on leases if it was deducted in Operating Profit (which it usually is, as finance cost). However, Operating Profit (EBIT) usually excludes finance costs. Let's verify if lease interest is in Operating Profit or Finance Costs.
`Gross Finance Costs` 2021: 674,000,000 EUR.
`Net Finance Costs` 2021: 658,000,000 EUR.
Lease interest is typically part of Finance Costs, not Operating Profit. Therefore, it is *not* in EBIT. Consequently, it is *not* in EBITDA (if EBITDA is derived from EBIT + D&A).
However, some definitions of EBITDA start from Net Income or include operating lease rent. Under IFRS 16, leases are capitalized. The interest is a finance cost. The depreciation is an operating cost.
So, EBITDA (from Ops) includes Depreciation on Right-of-Use assets. It does *not* include Interest on leases.
S&P's "Adjusted EBITDA" for leverage calculations often adds back the interest on leases to approximate the pre-interest cash flow available to service all debt (including lease debt).
So, `adjustment_leases` = Interest on leases = 43,000,000 EUR.

Are there other adjustments?
`Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates And Joint Ventures...`: 12,000,000 EUR. This is below EBIT. S&P often adjusts for equity income if it's not cash-dividend received, but usually, EBITDA is an operating metric. We will stick to the core operating performance.
`Expense From Sharebased Payment Transactions`: 288,000,000 EUR. This is a non-cash expense included in Operating Expenses. It reduces Operating Profit. We should add it back to get to a cash-based EBITDA.
Wait, the `Adjustments For Sharebased Payments` in the cash flow statement is 84,000,000 EUR. The P&L expense is 288,000,000 EUR. The difference is likely due to timing or classification. S&P usually adds back the non-cash share-based compensation expense. Let's use the P&L figure: 288,000,000 EUR.

Let's refine the EBITDA calculation:
Operating Profit (EBIT): 4,438,000,000
+ Depreciation & Amortization: 3,219,000,000
+ Share-based payment expense (non-cash): 288,000,000
+ Non-recurring operating losses: 26,000,000
- Non-recurring operating gains: 0
= 7,971,000,000 EUR.

Now, add Lease Interest Adjustment (since interest is a financing cost, not in EBIT, but we want EBITDA available for debt service which includes lease debt):
+ Interest on leases: 43,000,000
**Adjusted EBITDA 2021** = 7,971,000,000 + 43,000,000 = **8,014,000,000 EUR**.

*Self-Correction/Refinement*: In many S&P calculations for infrastructure, they might use "Funds From Operations" (FFO) directly. The prompt asks for Adjusted EBITDA first.
Let's double-check the "Non-recurring" item. `Other Operating Income Expense Non Recurring` is -26M. This is a loss. Add back.
Share-based payments: The cash flow adjustment is only 84M, but the expense is 288M. The expense reduces EBIT. To get to cash flow, we add back the non-cash portion. The entire 288M is non-cash. So adding 288M is correct for an EBITDA proxy.

Let's look at 2022 to ensure consistency.

**Step 7: Estimate the 2022 "Adjusted_EBITDA"**

Data for 2022 (2022-01-01 - 2023-01-01):
*   `Profit Loss From Operating Activities` (EBIT): 6,489,000,000 EUR
*   `Adjustments For Depreciation And Amortisation Expense`: 3,613,000,000 EUR
*   `Expense From Sharebased Payment Transactions`: 356,000,000 EUR
*   `Other Operating Income Expense Non Recurring`: 8,000,000 EUR (Gain/Income). This is a non-recurring gain, so we subtract it.
*   `Adjustments For Interest Expense On Lease Liabilities`: 48,000,000 EUR.

Reconstruction:
EBIT: 6,489,000,000
+ D&A: 3,613,000,000
+ Share-based expense: 356,000,000
- Non-recurring gains: 8,000,000
= 10,450,000,000 EUR.

Add Lease Interest Adjustment:
+ Interest on leases: 48,000,000
**Adjusted EBITDA 2022** = 10,450,000,000 + 48,000,000 = **10,498,000,000 EUR**.

**Step 3: Estimate the 2021 "FFO"**

Formula: `FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes`

We need Cash Interest and Cash Taxes for 2021.
From Cash Flow Statement 2021:
`Interest Paid And Interest Received Classified As Operating Activities`: 557,000,000 EUR.
Note: This line item is "Interest Paid AND Interest Received". We need just Interest Paid.
`Gross Finance Costs`: 674,000,000.
`Interest Income On Cash...`: 17,000,000.
`Other Finance Income Cost`: 40,000,000.
Net Finance Costs: 658,000,000.

Usually, `Interest Paid` is found in the supplemental cash flow data or derived.
The line `Interest Paid And Interest Received Classified As Operating Activities` is 557,000,000.
If we assume Interest Received is small (17M from P&L, maybe slightly different in cash), then Interest Paid ≈ 557M - 17M = 540M? Or is the 557M net? The label says "And", implying a sum of outflows and inflows or a net figure. In many IFRS statements, this line is net. However, S&P prefers gross interest paid.
Let's look at `Finance Costs Paid Classified As Operating Activities`: 47,000,000 EUR. This seems very low compared to Gross Finance Costs of 674M. This suggests most interest is classified as Financing Activities or the 557M figure is the main one.
Wait, looking at 2022: `Finance Costs Paid Classified As Operating Activities`: 29,000,000. `Interest Paid And Interest Received...`: 563,000,000.
It is highly likely that `Interest Paid And Interest Received Classified As Operating Activities` represents the net cash interest flow or the total interest paid if received is negligible.
Given `Gross Finance Costs` of 674M and `Interest Income` of 17M, the net cost is ~657M.
The cash flow line `Interest Paid And Interest Received` is 557M. This is lower than the accrual net cost (658M). This could be due to timing or capitalization.
S&P defines Cash Interest as the actual cash paid for interest.
Let's assume `Cash Interest` ≈ `Interest Paid`.
If the line 557M is "Paid AND Received", and Interest Received is ~17M, then Interest Paid is roughly 557 + 17 = 574M? Or is it Net? "Interest Paid and Interest Received" often denotes the net amount presented in the operating section. If it's net, and it's an outflow (usually presented as positive in this context if labeled "Used In" or similar, but here it's just a line item), let's look at the sign. In the text, it's just a value.
However, there is another line: `Finance Costs Paid Classified As Operating Activities`: 47,000,000.
And `Payments Of Lease Liabilities Classified As Financing Activities`: 631,000,000. This includes principal and interest.
The `Adjustments For Interest Expense On Lease Liabilities` is 43,000,000. This is the interest portion.
So, Total Interest Expense (Accrual) = 674M (Gross Finance Costs).
Cash Interest Paid = ?
Often, S&P uses `Cash Interest Paid` = `Gross Finance Costs` adjusted for changes in interest payables. Without balance sheet details for interest payables, we might have to use the accrual figure or the cash flow figure.
Let's use the `Interest Paid And Interest Received Classified As Operating Activities` as a proxy for Net Cash Interest. If we assume Interest Received is 17M, and the line is 557M, it's ambiguous if 557 is net or gross.
Let's look at the magnitude. 557M is close to Net Finance Costs (658M).
Let's assume **Cash Interest** for 2021 is approximately **557,000,000 EUR** (treating it as the net cash interest outflow, or assuming the label implies the net amount affecting operating cash flow). To be conservative and consistent with S&P's preference for cash basis, we will use this figure. If it includes received interest, we should subtract it. Let's assume the 557M is the net outflow.
Actually, a safer bet for "Cash Interest" in S&P calculations when specific "Interest Paid" isn't isolated is to use `Gross Finance Costs` if cash taxes/interest aren't clearly split, OR use the cash flow statement line `Interest Paid`.
Let's look at 2022. `Interest Paid And Interest Received`: 563M. `Gross Finance Costs`: 750M.
The difference between Accrual (750) and Cash (563) is significant.
Let's use the Cash Flow line `Interest Paid And Interest Received` as `Net Cash Interest`.
Cash Interest 2021 = 557,000,000 EUR. (We will assume this is the net cash outflow for interest).

`Cash Taxes`:
`Income Taxes Paid Classified As Operating Activities`: 1,213,000,000 EUR.

FFO 2021 = Adjusted EBITDA 2021 - Cash Interest - Cash Taxes
FFO 2021 = 8,014,000,000 - 557,000,000 - 1,213,000,000
FFO 2021 = **6,244,000,000 EUR**.

**Step 8: Estimate the 2022 "FFO"**

Cash Interest 2022: `Interest Paid And Interest Received Classified As Operating Activities`: 563,000,000 EUR.
Cash Taxes 2022: `Income Taxes Paid Classified As Operating Activities`: 1,603,000,000 EUR.

FFO 2022 = Adjusted EBITDA 2022 - Cash Interest - Cash Taxes
FFO 2022 = 10,498,000,000 - 563,000,000 - 1,603,000,000
FFO 2022 = **8,332,000,000 EUR**.

**Step 4: Estimate the 2021 "Adjusted_Debt"**

Formula: `Adjusted_Debt = (reported_debt + leases + pension_deficit + guarantees + hybrid_debt_portion + other_debt_like_items) - eligible_cash`

We need to identify Debt and Leases from the Balance Sheet (2022-01-01 column represents end of 2021).
Wait, the data labels are "2022-01-01" for the start of 2022, which is the end of 2021. And "2023-01-01" for the end of 2022.
So, for 2021 ratios, we use Balance Sheet data at 2022-01-01? No, ratios are typically calculated using average debt or year-end debt. S&P usually uses year-end debt for the ratio denominator for that year.
So, 2021 Ratios use Debt at 2021-12-31 (labeled 2022-01-01 in the data? No, "2022-01-01" is the start date of the period 2022. The balance sheet date is usually the end of the period. The data says `"Assets" 2022-01-01: 100816000000`. This is the opening balance of 2022, i.e., closing 2021.
And `"Assets" 2023-01-01: 111991000000`. This is closing 2022.

So, **2021 Debt (at 2022-01-01)**:
*   `Noncurrent Portion Of Noncurrent Bonds Issued`: 22,212,000,000
*   `Noncurrent Portion Of Other Noncurrent Borrowings`: 2,757,000,000
*   `Shortterm Borrowings`: 5,769,000,000
*   `Current Lease Liabilities`: 524,000,000
*   `Noncurrent Lease Liabilities`: 1,574,000,000
    *   Total Leases = 524 + 1,574 = 2,098,000,000.
*   `Noncurrent Derivative Financial Liabilities`: 422,000,000. (S&P often includes derivatives with negative mark-to-market as debt-like if they are hedging debt, but often excludes them unless specified. We will exclude for now as "other debt-like items" is vague, but derivatives are often marked to market. Let's stick to core debt).
*   `Current Derivative Financial Liabilities`: 513,000,000.

Reported Debt = Bonds + Other Borrowings + Shortterm Borrowings
Reported Debt = 22,212 + 2,757 + 5,769 = 30,738,000,000 EUR.

Leases = 2,098,000,000 EUR.

Pension Deficit:
`Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits`: 1,459,000,000.
`Other Longterm Provisions`: 1,137,000,000.
S&P adjusts for underfunded pension liabilities. The provision on the balance sheet represents the deficit. So we add the pension provision.
Pension Deficit ≈ 1,459,000,000 EUR. (Assuming "Provisions For Employee Benefits" is primarily pensions).

Eligible Cash:
`Cash And Cash Equivalents`: 11,065,000,000.
`Current Cash Management Financial Assets`: 200,000,000.
Total Cash = 11,265,000,000 EUR.
S&P deducts unrestricted cash. We assume all cash is eligible.

Adjusted Debt 2021 = Reported Debt + Leases + Pension Deficit - Cash
Adjusted Debt 2021 = 30,738 + 2,098 + 1,459 - 11,265
Adjusted Debt 2021 = 34,295 - 11,265 = **23,030,000,000 EUR**.

**Step 9: Estimate the 2022 "Adjusted_Debt"**

Data at 2023-01-01 (End of 2022):
*   `Noncurrent Portion Of Noncurrent Bonds Issued`: 20,425,000,000
*   `Noncurrent Portion Of Other Noncurrent Borrowings`: 3,205,000,000
*   `Shortterm Borrowings`: 6,368,000,000
*   `Current Lease Liabilities`: 522,000,000
*   `Noncurrent Lease Liabilities`: 1,580,000,000
    *   Total Leases = 522 + 1,580 = 2,102,000,000.
*   `Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits`: 1,149,000,000.

Reported Debt 2022 = 20,425 + 3,205 + 6,368 = 29,998,000,000 EUR.
Leases 2022 = 2,102,000,000 EUR.
Pension Deficit 2022 = 1,149,000,000 EUR.

Cash 2022:
`Cash And Cash Equivalents`: 12,578,000,000.
`Current Cash Management Financial Assets`: 755,000,000.
Total Cash = 13,333,000,000 EUR.

Adjusted Debt 2022 = 29,998 + 2,102 + 1,149 - 13,333
Adjusted Debt 2022 = 33,249 - 13,333 = **19,916,000,000 EUR**.

**Step 5: Calculate 2021 "Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA"**

Adjusted Debt 2021 = 23,030,000,000
Adjusted EBITDA 2021 = 8,014,000,000

Ratio 2021 = 23,030 / 8,014 ≈ **2.87x**

**Step 6: Calculate 2021 "FFO / Adjusted_Debt"**

FFO 2021 = 6,244,000,000
Adjusted Debt 2021 = 23,030,000,000

Ratio 2021 = 6,244 / 23,030 ≈ **0.271** (or 27.1%)

**Step 10: Calculate 2022 "Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA"**

Adjusted Debt 2022 = 19,916,000,000
Adjusted EBITDA 2022 = 10,498,000,000

Ratio 2022 = 19,916 / 10,498 ≈ **1.90x**

**Step 11: Calculate 2022 "FFO / Adjusted_Debt"**

FFO 2022 = 8,332,000,000
Adjusted Debt 2022 = 19,916,000,000

Ratio 2022 = 8,332 / 19,916 ≈ **0.418** (or 41.8%)

**Step 12: Classify the credit trend**

**Signal 1: Leverage (Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA)**
2021: 2.87x
2022: 1.90x
Change = 1.90 - 2.87 = **-0.97x**
Threshold: ≤ -0.2x is Improving.
-0.97 is significantly less than -0.2.
Signal 1: **Improving**

**Signal 2: Cash-flow coverage (FFO / Adjusted Debt)**
2021: 0.271
2022: 0.418
Change = 0.418 - 0.271 = **+0.147**
Threshold: ≥ +0.03 is Improving.
+0.147 is significantly greater than +0.03.
Signal 2: **Improving**

**Combination:**
Both signals are Improving.

**Conclusion:**
The credit trend is Improving.

<answer>Improving</answer>