To estimate the S&P credit trend for ACEA S.P.A. from 2021 to 2022, we apply the standard corporate and utility-specific methodology, identifying it as a Multi-Utility operating primarily under Regulated Utilities. **Step 1: Determine the Adjusted EBITDA** Under S&P methodology, bad debt expenses (uncollectible accounts) are treated as an ongoing operating expense. Because ACEA reports its bad debt below the Gross Profit line as "Impairment Loss... Determined in Accordance with IFRS 9", we must deduct this non-cash provision from Gross Profit (which translates to the standard Italian MOL or EBITDA) to accurately reflect S&P’s Adjusted EBITDA. - **2021 Adjusted EBITDA**: Reported Gross Profit (MOL) = €1,256.08M *Less* IFRS 9 Impairment = €86.21M **2021 Adjusted EBITDA = €1,169.87M** - **2022 Adjusted EBITDA**: Reported Gross Profit (MOL) = €1,305.02M *Less* IFRS 9 Impairment = €113.37M **2022 Adjusted EBITDA = €1,191.65M** **Step 2: Determine Adjusted Debt** Gross Debt includes current and non-current financial liabilities along with pension provisions. Standard netting is applied for available cash. (Leases are already capitalized under IFRS 16 into reported financial liabilities). - **2021 Adjusted Debt**: Financial Liabilities (Current + Noncurrent) = €285.22M + €4,791.98M = €5,077.20M *Plus* Pension Provisions = €120.15M *Less* Cash and Equivalents = €693.19M **2021 Adjusted Debt = €4,504.16M** - **2022 Adjusted Debt**: Financial Liabilities (Current + Noncurrent) = €619.42M + €4,722.26M = €5,341.68M *Plus* Pension Provisions = €112.99M *Less* Cash and Equivalents = €559.91M **2022 Adjusted Debt = €4,894.76M** **Step 3: Determine Funds From Operations (FFO)** FFO is estimated as Adjusted EBITDA minus cash interest paid and cash taxes paid. - **2021 FFO**: €1,169.87M (EBITDA) - €100.75M (Interest Paid) - €180.12M (Taxes Paid) = **€889.00M** - **2022 FFO**: €1,191.65M (EBITDA) - €114.12M (Interest Paid) - €178.51M (Taxes Paid) = **€899.02M** **Step 4: Calculate Ratios and Evaluate Signals** - **2021 Leverage (Debt / EBITDA)** = €4,504.16M / €1,169.87M = **3.85x** - **2022 Leverage (Debt / EBITDA)** = €4,894.76M / €1,191.65M = **4.11x** *Change in Leverage* = +0.26x. (Since +0.26x ≥ +0.2x, **Signal 1 is Deteriorating**) - **2021 FFO / Debt** = €889.00M / €4,504.16M = **19.74%** - **2022 FFO / Debt** = €899.02M / €4,894.76M = **18.37%** *Change in FFO/Debt* = -1.37%. (Since the magnitude is within the +/- 3% band, **Signal 2 is Stable**) **Conclusion:** With a meaningful expansion in capital expenditure driving net debt substantially higher (~9%) relative to constrained real profitability growth (~1.8%), ACEA's leverage profile demonstrably worsened in 2022. Because Signal 1 points to "Deteriorating" and Signal 2 is "Stable", the combined credit trend is drawn to the non-Stable, negative factor. Deteriorating