To assess the suitability of Fortum Oyj for the issuance of hybrid bonds, we must analyze its business profile, financial health, and strategic rationale against the provided S&P methodology and market context. **1. Business Profile and Sector Classification** Fortum operates in the energy sector, specifically in the Nordics and Baltics. The provided facts show a mix of regulated and unregulated activities. * **Regulated/Infrastructure-like:** Fortum has significant exposure to district heating and network operations, which are often considered regulated or quasi-regulated with stable cash flows. The "Comparable Operating Profit" of EUR 1,871 million in 2022 suggests a core business that generates substantial earnings before specific volatility items. * **Unregulated/Merchant Exposure:** The company is also exposed to power generation and trading. The volatility in "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" (dropping from EUR 4,325 million in 2021 to EUR 1,277 million in 2022) and the massive losses in discontinued operations indicate significant exposure to market dynamics, commodity prices, and strategic restructuring (divestments). * **S&P Methodology Application:** Under the "Unregulated Power And Gas" or "Regulated Utilities" frameworks, Fortum likely falls into a hybrid category. While it has regulated assets, the significant earnings volatility and the nature of its generation portfolio (including nuclear and hydro, but also thermal and trading) expose it to "medial" or "standard" volatility rather than "low" volatility. The "Items Affecting Comparability" and large swings in profit suggest that its cash flows are not as predictable as a pure regulated utility. **2. Financial Health and Leverage** * **Profitability:** The company reported a net loss attributable to owners of the parent of EUR -2,416 million in 2022, largely driven by discontinued operations (-3,428 million) and impairments. However, continuing operations remained profitable (EUR 1,011 million). The "Comparable EBITDA" increased from EUR 2,016 million in 2021 to EUR 2,436 million in 2022, indicating that the core operational performance is robust despite the headline net loss. * **Leverage and Equity:** Equity attributable to owners decreased from EUR 12,131 million to EUR 7,670 million. This significant drop in equity base increases leverage ratios. Hybrid bonds are often used to shore up equity ratios and improve leverage metrics (FFO/Debt) to maintain investment grade ratings. * **Cash Flow:** Cash flows from operating activities from continuing operations were positive (EUR 2,104 million). However, total cash flow from operating activities was negative (-8,767 million) due to discontinued operations. The company has a strong liquidity position with EUR 3,919 million in liquid funds. **3. Suitability for Hybrid Issuance** * **Rationale:** The sharp decline in equity and the volatility in earnings create a need for capital structure optimization. Hybrids can be treated as equity for rating purposes, helping to mitigate the leverage increase caused by the equity erosion and potential debt taken on for restructuring or capex. * **Investor Appetite:** As a large, established utility/energy company in the Nordics, Fortum has access to institutional capital markets. The "Strongly Suitable" criteria mention "Regulated, quasi-regulated... utility... with highly visible cash flows." While Fortum has visibility in its regulated segments, the overall group profile is complicated by the unregulated trading/generation volatility and the recent large-scale divestments (discontinued operations). * **Rating Impact:** The company is likely in the BBB range (typical for large European utilities with mixed profiles). The deterioration in equity metrics suggests that hybrid issuance could provide material rating support or prevent a downgrade, fitting the "Strongly Suitable" criterion of "Hybrid issuance could materially improve adjusted leverage... or rating headroom." * **Counter-arguments for "Not Suitable" or "Marginally Suitable":** It is not "Not Suitable" because it is not distressed, nor is it a pure commodity play without hedging/regulated backing. It is not merely "Marginally Suitable" because the need to repair the balance sheet after significant equity erosion and the structural nature of its utility assets make hybrids a core component of its capital structure strategy, rather than just an opportunistic tool. The volatility in 2022 was exacerbated by one-off items (discontinued ops, impairments), while the comparable operating profit grew, suggesting the core business remains strong enough to support hybrid coupons. **Conclusion:** Fortum fits the profile of a utility with a mix of regulated and unregulated assets. The significant drop in equity and the need to manage leverage ratios in a volatile energy market make hybrid bonds a strategic tool to maintain investment grade status. The core business generates sufficient comparable EBITDA to service hybrid coupons. Therefore, it is strongly suitable for issuing hybrids to strengthen its equity base and manage leverage. Strongly Suitable