**Step 1: Identify the relevant industry** EDP, S.A. (Energias de Portugal) is an integrated energy company involved in the generation, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity and gas. The provided methodologies cover "Regulated Utilities," "Oil And Gas Exploration And Production," "Unregulated Power And Gas," and "Transportation Infrastructure." EDP operates a significant regulated network business (distribution and transmission) in Portugal and other jurisdictions, as well as unregulated generation (renewables and thermal) and supply activities. S&P typically assesses integrated utilities with a significant regulated component under the **Regulated Utilities** methodology, especially when the regulated assets provide a stable cash flow base. The prompt provides specific guidance for Regulated Utilities, including volatility tables and ratio definitions. Given EDP's profile as a major European utility with substantial regulated infrastructure, we will apply the **Regulated Utilities** methodology. Note that for Regulated Utilities, S&P often uses FFO/Debt and Debt/EBITDA as key metrics. The prompt asks to estimate Adjusted EBITDA, FFO, and Adjusted Debt using baseline formulas modified by industry guidelines. For Regulated Utilities, S&P generally does not make significant adjustments to EBITDA for leases or pensions in the same way as industrial corporates, but we will follow the baseline formula provided. A key aspect for utilities is the treatment of debt-like items. However, without specific details on pension deficits or hybrid debt in the facts, we will use the reported financial debt and lease liabilities where identifiable. The prompt asks to calculate `Adjusted_Debt = (reported_debt + leases + pension_deficit + guarantees + hybrid_debt_portion + other_debt_like_items) - eligible_cash`. Let's extract the necessary data for 2021 and 2022. **Data Extraction:** * **2021 (Fiscal Year Ended Dec 31, 2021 / Period 2021-01-01 to 2022-01-01):** * Revenue: 14,982,909,000 EUR * Profit Before Financial Income/Expenses, Tax, etc. (EBIT): 1,930,785,000 EUR * Depreciation, Amortisation, and Impairment: 1,731,755,000 EUR * Finance Costs: 875,816,000 EUR * Finance Income: 364,883,000 EUR * Income Tax Expense: 261,892,000 EUR * Extraordinary Contribution (CESE): 53,314,000 EUR * Total Tax & CESE: 315,206,000 EUR * Net Profit: 1,104,646,000 EUR * Cash Flow from Operating Activities (CFO): 2,019,909,000 EUR * Interest Paid (Cash): Not explicitly stated as a single line item in CFO, but "Interest And Similar Costs Of Financial Debt Including Hedge Derivatives" in Financing/Investing context is 481,329,000 EUR. We will use this as a proxy for cash interest if not available in CFO adjustments. However, FFO is often derived from CFO or EBITDA. The prompt defines `FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes`. * Debt: * Long-term Borrowings: 15,299,588,000 EUR * Current Borrowings: 1,518,348,000 EUR * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 3,039,975,000 EUR * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 2,781,101,000 EUR * Lease Liabilities (Right-of-use assets are 1,007,029,000 EUR, implying lease liabilities of similar magnitude). Let's look for explicit lease liability data. It is not explicitly broken out in the liability section provided, but "Right-of-use Assets" are 1,007,029,000 EUR. Under IFRS 16, Lease Liabilities are usually close to this. We will estimate Lease Liabilities. In the 2022 data, ROU is 1,320,270,000. * Cash and Cash Equivalents: 3,222,409,000 EUR. * **2022 (Fiscal Year Ended Dec 31, 2022 / Period 2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01):** * Revenue: 20,650,764,000 EUR * Profit Before Financial Income/Expenses, Tax, etc. (EBIT): 2,529,993,000 EUR * Depreciation, Amortisation, and Impairment: 1,979,007,000 EUR * Finance Costs: 1,753,220,000 EUR * Finance Income: 843,000,000 EUR * Income Tax Expense: 398,490,000 EUR * Extraordinary Contribution (CESE): 51,534,000 EUR * Total Tax & CESE: 450,024,000 EUR * Net Profit: 1,169,749,000 EUR * Cash Flow from Operating Activities (CFO): 3,777,785,000 EUR * Interest Paid (Cash): "Interest And Similar Costs Of Financial Debt Including Hedge Derivatives" is 716,454,000 EUR. * Debt: * Long-term Borrowings: 15,782,604,000 EUR * Current Borrowings: 4,239,869,000 EUR * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 5,159,496,000 EUR * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 3,600,893,000 EUR * Cash and Cash Equivalents: 4,900,205,000 EUR. **Step 2: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_EBITDA** Formula: `Adjusted_EBITDA = EBITDA + adjustment_leases + nonrecurring_losses - nonrecurring_gains ...` First, calculate Reported EBITDA for 2021: EBITDA = EBIT + Depreciation & Amortization EBIT (Profit Before Financial Income/Expenses...) = 1,930,785,000 EUR D&A = 1,731,755,000 EUR Reported EBITDA = 1,930,785,000 + 1,731,755,000 = 3,662,540,000 EUR Adjustments: * **Leases:** Under IFRS 16, EBITDA is already adjusted for leases (lease expense is replaced by depreciation and interest). The baseline formula adds `adjustment_leases` if the starting point is EBITDA *before* lease adjustments or if we need to add back rent. Since the report follows IFRS, the reported EBITDA includes the add-back of depreciation on ROU assets. S&P often treats lease liabilities as debt. The `adjustment_leases` in the formula likely refers to adding back operating lease rent if using an older standard, or it might be zero if IFRS 16 is applied. Given the data is IFRS, we assume Reported EBITDA is the correct starting point. We do not add further lease adjustments to EBITDA itself, but we will include lease liabilities in Debt. * **Non-recurring items:** The data shows "Impairment Loss... IFRS9" of 32,828,000 EUR. This is likely included in the D&A or Finance costs? The line "Depreciation Amortisation And Impairment Loss..." includes impairment. So it's already in EBITDA. Are there other non-recurring items? "Gains Losses On Disposal..." is 0 in 2021. We will assume Reported EBITDA is a good proxy for Adjusted EBITDA absent specific non-recurring exclusions in the text. * **Joint Ventures:** The line "Joint Ventures And Associates" shows income of 108,106,000 EUR. This is likely equity income, which is below EBIT. S&P often adds back the proportionate EBITDA of JVs. However, we don't have the JV EBITDA breakdown. We will stick to the consolidated EBITDA. Estimated 2021 Adjusted_EBITDA = **3,662,540,000 EUR** **Step 3: Estimate 2021 FFO** Formula: `FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes` * Adjusted_EBITDA = 3,662,540,000 EUR * Cash Interest: The item "Interest And Similar Costs Of Financial Debt Including Hedge Derivatives" in the financing section is 481,329,000 EUR. This represents the cash outflow for interest. * Cash Taxes: The item "Income Tax Expense Continuing Operations" is 261,892,000 EUR. The cash flow statement usually reconciles this. Without a specific "Cash Taxes Paid" line, we use the tax expense as a proxy, or look at the change in tax liabilities. Tax Liabilities Current increased from (not given for 2020) to 582,686,000. Let's use the reported Tax Expense + CESE as a proxy for cash tax burden if no better data. Total Tax & CESE = 315,206,000 EUR. Let's use this value. FFO_2021 = 3,662,540,000 - 481,329,000 - 315,206,000 FFO_2021 = 2,866,005,000 EUR *Self-Correction/Refinement:* S&P FFO for utilities is often closer to CFO. Let's check CFO. CFO_2021 = 2,019,909,000 EUR. The calculated FFO (2.86B) is significantly higher than CFO (2.02B). This discrepancy is often due to working capital changes and the fact that EBITDA doesn't account for cash taxes/interest paid in the period vs accrued. However, the prompt *explicitly* mandates the formula `FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes`. We must follow the prompt's formula. Let's re-verify the "Cash Interest". The line "Interest And Similar Costs..." in the financing cash flow section is a payment. Let's re-verify "Cash Taxes". The line "Income Tax Expense..." is an accrual. In the absence of "Taxes Paid", we use the expense. FFO_2021 = **2,866,005,000 EUR** **Step 4: Estimate 2021 Adjusted_Debt** Formula: `Adjusted_Debt = (reported_debt + leases + pension_deficit + guarantees + hybrid_debt_portion + other_debt_like_items) - eligible_cash` * Reported Debt: * Long-term Borrowings: 15,299,588,000 * Current Borrowings: 1,518,348,000 * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 3,039,975,000 * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 2,781,101,000 * Total Interest-Bearing Debt = 15,299,588,000 + 1,518,348,000 + 3,039,975,000 + 2,781,101,000 = 22,639,012,000 EUR * Leases: We need to estimate Lease Liabilities. * Right-of-Use Assets (2021): 1,007,029,000 EUR. * Typically, Lease Liabilities are similar to ROU Assets. Let's assume Lease Liabilities ≈ 1,007,029,000 EUR. * Note: "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities" and "Other Current Financial Liabilities" might already include lease liabilities. In many IFRS reports, lease liabilities are presented separately or within borrowings/other financial liabilities. Without a specific breakdown, adding them separately might double-count. However, the prompt asks to add `leases`. If the reported "Borrowings" do not explicitly exclude leases, and "Other Financial Liabilities" is a catch-all, it's ambiguous. * Standard S&P practice: If lease liabilities are not explicitly broken out in debt, they are added. If they are included in "Borrowings", they are not added again. Given the line items "Long-term Borrowings" and "Current Borrowings", and separate "Other Financial Liabilities", it is highly likely that Lease Liabilities are contained within "Other Financial Liabilities" or "Borrowings". * Let's check the magnitude. Total Debt calculated above is ~22.6B. Equity is ~14B. This is a high leverage ratio. * Let's look at 2022 to see if we can infer. * To be conservative and consistent with the prompt's instruction to add `leases`, if we assume the reported "Borrowings" are bank bonds/loans and "Other Financial Liabilities" includes derivatives/leases, we might be double counting if we add ROU. * However, a common simplification in these exercises when specific lease liability data is missing is to use the ROU asset value as a proxy for the lease liability *if* it's not already in debt. * Let's assume the "Borrowings" lines are pure financial debt and "Other Financial Liabilities" includes leases. If we add ROU again, we double count. * Alternative: Use Total Liabilities - Operating Liabilities? No, too complex. * Let's assume the standard definition of Debt for S&P includes all interest-bearing liabilities. The lines "Long-term Borrowings", "Current Borrowings", "Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities", "Other Current Financial Liabilities" sum to 22.6B. This is likely the total gross debt including leases if they are classified as financial liabilities. * Let's assume **Reported Debt** = 22,639,012,000 EUR includes leases. * Pension Deficit: Not provided. Assume 0 or negligible for this estimation. * Eligible Cash: Cash and Cash Equivalents = 3,222,409,000 EUR. S&P often deducts unrestricted cash. Adjusted_Debt_2021 = 22,639,012,000 - 3,222,409,000 = **19,416,603,000 EUR** **Step 5: Calculate 2021 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA** Ratio_2021 = 19,416,603,000 / 3,662,540,000 Ratio_2021 ≈ **5.30x** **Step 6: Calculate 2021 FFO / Adjusted_Debt** Ratio_FFO_2021 = 2,866,005,000 / 19,416,603,000 Ratio_FFO_2021 ≈ **0.1476** (or 14.76%) **Step 7: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_EBITDA** EBIT_2022 = 2,529,993,000 EUR D&A_2022 = 1,979,007,000 EUR Reported EBITDA_2022 = 2,529,993,000 + 1,979,007,000 = 4,509,000,000 EUR Assuming no significant non-recurring adjustments or lease add-backs (IFRS 16 applied): Adjusted_EBITDA_2022 = **4,509,000,000 EUR** **Step 8: Estimate 2022 FFO** Formula: `FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes` * Adjusted_EBITDA = 4,509,000,000 EUR * Cash Interest: "Interest And Similar Costs Of Financial Debt..." = 716,454,000 EUR * Cash Taxes: Total Tax & CESE = 450,024,000 EUR FFO_2022 = 4,509,000,000 - 716,454,000 - 450,024,000 FFO_2022 = 3,342,522,000 EUR **Step 9: Estimate 2022 Adjusted_Debt** * Reported Debt: * Long-term Borrowings: 15,782,604,000 * Current Borrowings: 4,239,869,000 * Other Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 5,159,496,000 * Other Current Financial Liabilities: 3,600,893,000 * Total Interest-Bearing Debt = 15,782,604,000 + 4,239,869,000 + 5,159,496,000 + 3,600,893,000 = 28,782,862,000 EUR * Eligible Cash: 4,900,205,000 EUR Adjusted_Debt_2022 = 28,782,862,000 - 4,900,205,000 = **23,882,657,000 EUR** **Step 10: Calculate 2022 Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA** Ratio_2022 = 23,882,657,000 / 4,509,000,000 Ratio_2022 ≈ **5.30x** (Specifically 5.2966...) Let's check the precision. 2021 Ratio: 19,416,603,000 / 3,662,540,000 = 5.2997... -> **5.30x** 2022 Ratio: 23,882,657,000 / 4,509,000,000 = 5.2966... -> **5.30x** Change in Leverage = 5.30 - 5.30 = **0.00x** **Step 11: Calculate 2022 FFO / Adjusted_Debt** Ratio_FFO_2022 = 3,342,522,000 / 23,882,657,000 Ratio_FFO_2022 ≈ **0.1400** (or 14.00%) Change in FFO/Debt = 0.1400 - 0.1476 = **-0.0076** **Step 12: Classify the credit trend** * **Signal 1 (Leverage):** Change in Adjusted_Debt/EBITDA is ~0.00x. * Thresholds: ≤ -0.2x (Improving), > -0.2x and < +0.2x (Stable), ≥ +0.2x (Deteriorating). * 0.00 is between -0.2 and +0.2. * Signal 1: **Stable** * **Signal 2 (Cash-flow coverage):** Change in FFO/Adjusted_Debt is -0.0076. * Thresholds: ≥ +0.03 (Improving), > -0.03 and < +0.03 (Stable), ≤ -0.03 (Deteriorating). * -0.0076 is between -0.03 and +0.03. * Signal 2: **Stable** * **Combination:** Both signals are Stable. **Conclusion:** The credit trend is Stable. Stable