**Step 1: Identify the relevant industry for "ENEL - SPA"** Enel SpA is a multinational energy company involved in the generation, distribution, and sale of electricity and gas. It operates both regulated networks (distribution) and unregulated activities (generation, retail, trading). The provided methodologies include "Regulated Utilities," "Unregulated Power And Gas," and "Oil And Gas Exploration And Production." Enel is best classified under **Regulated Utilities** because a significant portion of its business involves regulated network operations (distribution), which typically drives the credit profile for such integrated utilities. However, it also has substantial unregulated exposure. S&P often assesses integrated utilities by looking at the mix. Given the prompt's structure, we will apply the **Regulated Utilities** methodology as the primary framework, noting that Enel operates in multiple jurisdictions. The "Regulated Utilities" section notes that for integrated electric utilities, specific adjustments might be needed, but the core financial risk profile relies on leverage and coverage ratios. We will use the standard definitions for EBITDA, FFO, and Debt, applying sector-specific adjustments where evident (e.g., hybrid bonds). **Step 2: Estimate the 2021 "Adjusted_EBITDA"** First, we reconstruct EBITDA for 2021 from the reported figures. * **Profit Loss From Operating Activities (EBIT):** 7,551,000,000 EUR * **Depreciation Amortisation And Impairment Loss Reversal...:** 8,507,000,000 EUR (This is a non-cash add-back). * Note: The label includes "Impairment Loss Reversal". Usually, EBITDA = EBIT + Depreciation + Amortization + Impairment Losses - Impairment Reversals. The line item "Depreciation Amortisation And Impairment Loss Reversal Of Impairment Loss Recognised In Profit Or Loss" suggests this figure is the net add-back for D&A and impairment reversals. Let's verify with the Cash Flow statement adjustments. * Cash Flow Adjustment for Depreciation/Amortization/Impairment: 8,691,000,000 EUR. * There is a separate line for "Adjustments For Impairment Loss Reversal... Trade Receivables": 1,196,000,000 EUR. * Let's stick to the P&L reconstruction. EBIT is 7,551m. * Add back Depreciation & Amortization. The line "Depreciation Amortisation And Impairment Loss Reversal..." is 8,507m. This likely represents the total non-cash charge/reversal added back to get to operating cash flow before working capital. * So, **EBITDA** ≈ 7,551 + 8,507 = 16,058,000,000 EUR. * **Adjustments:** * **Leases:** Not explicitly broken out in the provided facts as a separate adjustment line item for EBITDA calculation, but typically included in debt. We assume reported EBITDA is close to Adjusted EBITDA unless significant non-recurring items exist. * **Non-recurring items:** The "Other Income" and "Other Expense" lines are large. "Other Expense By Nature" increased from 1,968m to 4,685m. "Other Income" increased from 3,819m to 4,864m. Without specific details on non-recurring nature, we treat operating results as recurring for a utility. * **Joint Ventures:** "Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates And Joint Ventures" is 571m in 2021. S&P often adds back proportional EBITDA of JVs if they are equity-accounted. However, without JV-specific EBITDA data, we cannot make this adjustment precisely. We will proceed with the consolidated EBITDA derived from Operating Profit. * **Hybrid Bonds:** Enel has "Equity Instruments Perpetual Hybrid Bonds" (5,567m in 2022, 2,386m in 2021). Interest on hybrids is often treated as debt-like interest. For EBITDA, interest is below the line, so this doesn't affect EBITDA directly, but affects FFO (cash interest). Let's refine EBITDA using the Cash Flow from Operations (CFO) indirect method data to ensure accuracy of non-cash add-backs. CFO (Operating Activities) 2021: 9,915,000,000 EUR. Reconciliation: Net Profit (Continuing): 3,758m + Depreciation/Amort/Impairment: 8,691m (from CF adjustments) +/- Working Capital: 1,097m +/- Other adjustments (Tax, Finance, etc.): - Tax Expense: 1,643m - Finance Cost Net: -2,751m (This is an add-back to get to EBITDA? No, Finance cost is subtracted to get Net Income. To get to EBITDA from Net Income, we add back Tax, Interest, Depreciation). Let's use the standard formula: **EBITDA = Operating Profit + Depreciation & Amortization**. Operating Profit (Profit Loss From Operating Activities) 2021: 7,551,000,000 EUR. Depreciation & Amortization: The CF adjustment "Adjustments For Depreciation And Amortisation Expense And Impairment Loss Reversal..." is 8,691,000,000 EUR. However, the P&L line "Depreciation Amortisation And Impairment Loss Reversal..." is 8,507,000,000 EUR. The difference (184m) might be due to classification differences or impairments in other lines. We will use the P&L derived EBITDA as it aligns with the "Operating Activities" profit. EBITDA 2021 = 7,551 + 8,507 = **16,058,000,000 EUR**. Are there other adjustments? S&P Regulated Utilities methodology often adjusts for "pass-through" costs if they distort margins, but Enel's revenue includes commodity costs which are volatile. The "Raw Materials And Consumables Used" is 47,702m. Revenue is 85,719m. The methodology states: "We typically use the EBITDA margin as key indicator... unless it is distorted... by pass-through costs". However, without specific guidance on which costs are pass-through, we use the reported Operating Profit + D&A. We will assume **Adjusted_EBITDA 2021 = 16,058,000,000 EUR**. **Step 3: Estimate the 2021 "FFO"** Formula: FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes * **Cash Interest:** * Finance Costs (P&L): 6,087,000,000 EUR. * Finance Income (P&L): 1,862,000,000 EUR. * Net Finance Costs: 4,225,000,000 EUR. * However, FFO uses *cash* interest paid. * From Cash Flow Statement: "Finance Costs Paid Classified As Operating Activities": 4,277,000,000 EUR. * "Finance Income Received Classified As Operating Activities": 1,365,000,000 EUR. * Net Cash Interest Paid = 4,277 - 1,365 = **2,912,000,000 EUR**. * *Correction*: S&P FFO definition usually subtracts gross cash interest paid and adds back cash interest received? Or just Net? * Standard S&P FFO = Net Income + Depreciation + Deferred Taxes + Other Non-Cash Items. * Alternative FFO Formula provided in prompt: `FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes`. This implies Gross Cash Interest. * Let's check the components. If we use Gross Cash Interest Paid: 4,277,000,000 EUR. * Does "cash_interest" mean net or gross? In many credit contexts, FFO is EBITDA - Cash Interest (Net) - Cash Taxes. But the prompt formula says `cash_interest`. Let's look at the "Finance Costs Paid" line. It is 4,277m. * Let's calculate Cash Taxes. * "Income Taxes Paid Refund Classified As Operating Activities": 1,846,000,000 EUR. This is the net cash tax paid. Let's re-evaluate the FFO formula context. Usually, FFO = Net Income + D&A + Deferred Tax. Let's try calculating FFO via the Net Income route to cross-verify. Net Income (Continuing) 2021: 3,758,000,000 EUR. + D&A: 8,507,000,000 EUR. + Deferred Tax: Change in Deferred Tax Liabilities/Assets? DTL 2021: 9,259m. DTL 2020 (not given, but we can infer from tax expense vs paid). Tax Expense: 1,620m. Tax Paid: 1,846m. This implies a small deferred tax benefit or usage. Let's stick to the prompt's explicit formula: `FFO = Adjusted_EBITDA - cash_interest - cash_taxes`. If `cash_interest` is gross interest paid: 4,277,000,000 EUR. If `cash_taxes` is cash taxes paid: 1,846,000,000 EUR. FFO = 16,058 - 4,277 - 1,846 = **9,935,000,000 EUR**. *Self-Correction*: Often, interest *income* is not subtracted from EBITDA, but interest *expense* is. If we subtract gross interest paid, we are ignoring interest income which is part of EBITDA (since EBITDA is pre-interest). This would understate FFO. Standard definition: FFO = EBITDA - Net Cash Interest - Cash Taxes. Net Cash Interest = Interest Paid - Interest Received = 4,277 - 1,365 = 2,912,000,000 EUR. FFO = 16,058 - 2,912 - 1,846 = **11,300,000,000 EUR**. Let's check if there are preferred dividends or hybrid coupons. "Coupon Paid Hybrid Bonds": 71,000,000 EUR. S&P typically treats hybrid coupons as interest for FFO calculation if the hybrids are treated as debt. So, Cash Interest = Net Cash Interest + Hybrid Coupons = 2,912 + 71 = 2,983,000,000 EUR. FFO = 16,058 - 2,983 - 1,846 = **11,229,000,000 EUR**. Let's use **11,229,000,000 EUR** for 2021 FFO. **Step 4: Estimate the 2021 "Adjusted_Debt"** Formula: `Adjusted_Debt = (reported_debt + leases + pension_deficit + guarantees + hybrid_debt_portion + other_debt_like_items) - eligible_cash` * **Reported Debt 2021 (End of 2021 / Start of 2022):** * The balance sheet dates are 2022-01-01 (which is end of 2021) and 2023-01-01 (end of 2022). * We need 2021 ratios, so we use the balance sheet as of **2022-01-01** (representing the fiscal year ended Dec 31, 2021). * Long-term Borrowings: 54,500,000,000 EUR. * Short-term Borrowings: 13,306,000,000 EUR. * Current Portion of Long-term Borrowings: 4,031,000,000 EUR. * Total Reported Debt = 54,500 + 13,306 + 4,031 = **71,837,000,000 EUR**. * **Hybrid Debt Portion:** * "Equity Instruments Perpetual Hybrid Bonds": 2,386,000,000 EUR (from Equity breakdown 2021-01-01? No, look at 2022-01-01 equity breakdown). * In the Equity section for 2022-01-01 (End of 2021): "Equity Instruments Perpetual Hybrid Bonds Member": **5,567,000,000 EUR**. * Wait, let's check the roll-forward. * 2021-01-01 Balance: 2,386,000,000 EUR. * 2021 Activity: "Hybrid Bonds Issued": 3,181,000,000 EUR. * End 2021 Balance: 2,386 + 3,181 = 5,567,000,000 EUR. * S&P typically treats 100% of hybrids as debt for leverage ratios in utilities if they are permanent capital but debt-like. We will add **5,567,000,000 EUR**. * **Leases:** Not explicitly provided as a separate debt line, but likely included in borrowings or "Other". Without specific data, we assume reported debt captures lease liabilities or the impact is negligible/already adjusted. * **Pension Deficit:** * "Noncurrent Provisions For Employee Benefits": 2,724,000,000 EUR. * This is a provision, not necessarily a funded deficit. S&P adjusts for underfunded pension liabilities. Without actuarial asset data, we cannot calculate the net deficit. We will assume the provision is the best proxy or that the plan is fully funded (common for large utilities). We will add **0** for pension adjustment due to lack of asset data, or assume the provision is already a liability on the balance sheet but not "debt". S&P adds the *underfunded* amount. If we assume the provision equals the liability and assets are not netted, we might add it. However, typically "Provisions" are operating liabilities. We will exclude it unless we see "Net Pension Liability". * **Eligible Cash:** * "Cash And Cash Equivalents": 8,858,000,000 EUR (as of 2022-01-01). * S&P allows deduction of unrestricted cash. * Deduct **8,858,000,000 EUR**. * **Adjusted Debt 2021 Calculation:** * Debt: 71,837 * Hybrids: 5,567 * Less Cash: (8,858) * Total = 71,837 + 5,567 - 8,858 = **68,546,000,000 EUR**. **Step 5: Calculate 2021 "Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA"** * Adjusted Debt: 68,546,000,000 EUR * Adjusted EBITDA: 16,058,000,000 EUR * Ratio = 68,546 / 16,058 ≈ **4.27x** **Step 6: Calculate 2021 "FFO / Adjusted_Debt"** * FFO: 11,229,000,000 EUR * Adjusted Debt: 68,546,000,000 EUR * Ratio = 11,229 / 68,546 ≈ **16.38%** (or 0.164) --- **Step 7: Estimate the 2022 "Adjusted_EBITDA"** * **Operating Profit (EBIT) 2022:** 11,193,000,000 EUR. * **Depreciation & Amortization 2022:** 7,447,000,000 EUR (from P&L line "Depreciation Amortisation..."). * **EBITDA 2022** = 11,193 + 7,447 = **18,640,000,000 EUR**. * *Check for significant non-recurring items:* * "Profit Loss From Discontinued Operations": -2,298,000,000 EUR. This is below operating profit, so EBITDA from continuing ops is unaffected. * "Other Expense By Nature" increased significantly (1,968 to 4,685). "Raw Materials" increased significantly (47,702 to 96,896). This reflects the energy crisis (pass-through costs). Since revenue also increased (81,900 to 135,653), the margin compression is real but likely regulatory/pass-through. We use the reported EBITDA. * **Adjusted_EBITDA 2022 = 18,640,000,000 EUR**. **Step 8: Estimate the 2022 "FFO"** * **Cash Interest:** * Finance Costs Paid (Operating): 5,016,000,000 EUR. * Finance Income Received (Operating): 2,622,000,000 EUR. * Net Cash Interest = 5,016 - 2,622 = 2,394,000,000 EUR. * Hybrid Coupons Paid: 123,000,000 EUR. * Total Cash Interest = 2,394 + 0.123 = **2,517,000,000 EUR**. * **Cash Taxes:** * Income Taxes Paid: 1,934,000,000 EUR. * **FFO 2022** = Adjusted_EBITDA - Cash Interest - Cash Taxes * FFO = 18,640 - 2,517 - 1,934 = **14,189,000,000 EUR**. **Step 9: Estimate the 2022 "Adjusted_Debt"** * **Reported Debt 2022 (End of 2022 / 2023-01-01):** * Long-term Borrowings: 68,191,000,000 EUR. * Short-term Borrowings: 18,392,000,000 EUR. * Current Portion of Long-term Borrowings: 2,835,000,000 EUR. * Total Reported Debt = 68,191 + 18,392 + 2,835 = **89,418,000,000 EUR**. * **Hybrid Debt Portion:** * "Equity Instruments Perpetual Hybrid Bonds Member" (2023-01-01): **5,567,000,000 EUR**. (No new issuance noted in 2022 equity changes for hybrids). * **Eligible Cash:** * "Cash And Cash Equivalents" (2023-01-01): **11,041,000,000 EUR**. * **Adjusted Debt 2022 Calculation:** * Debt: 89,418 * Hybrids: 5,567 * Less Cash: (11,041) * Total = 89,418 + 5,567 - 11,041 = **83,944,000,000 EUR**. **Step 10: Calculate 2022 "Adjusted_Debt / Adjusted_EBITDA"** * Adjusted Debt: 83,944,000,000 EUR * Adjusted EBITDA: 18,640,000,000 EUR * Ratio = 83,944 / 18,640 ≈ **4.50x** **Step 11: Calculate 2022 "FFO / Adjusted_Debt"** * FFO: 14,189,000,000 EUR * Adjusted Debt: 83,944,000,000 EUR * Ratio = 14,189 / 83,944 ≈ **16.90%** (or 0.169) **Step 12: Classify the credit trend** * **Signal 1: Leverage (Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA)** * 2021: 4.27x * 2022: 4.50x * Change: 4.50 - 4.27 = **+0.23x** * Threshold: ≥ +0.2x is **Deteriorating**. * **Signal 2: Cash-flow coverage (FFO / Adjusted Debt)** * 2021: 16.38% (0.1638) * 2022: 16.90% (0.1690) * Change: 0.1690 - 0.1638 = **+0.0052** (or +0.52 percentage points) * Threshold: * ≥ +0.03: Improving * Between -0.03 and +0.03: **Stable** * ≤ -0.03: Deteriorating * The change is +0.0052, which is within the stable range (-0.03 to +0.03). So, **Stable**. * **Combining Signals:** * Signal 1: Deteriorating * Signal 2: Stable * Rule: "If one is Stable and the other is Improving or Deteriorating, return the non-Stable category." * Therefore, the trend is **Deteriorating**. *Reasoning Check:* Leverage increased by 0.23x, crossing the 0.2x threshold for deterioration. This was driven by a significant increase in debt (from ~68.5B to ~83.9B, likely due to higher working capital needs and investments during the energy crisis) outpacing the growth in EBITDA (from ~16B to ~18.6B). While FFO coverage improved slightly due to higher absolute EBITDA, the leverage metric signals a weakening balance sheet structure relative to earnings. Deteriorating