Based on the provided annual report for Ferrovial SA for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022, the following analysis is performed to assess the appropriate level of hybrid bond issuance. ### Financial Profile Summary **Liquidity and Debt Structure:** - **Cash Position:** The company has a very strong cash position. Cash and cash equivalents excluding infrastructure projects stood at €4.962 billion as of December 31, 2022. - **Debt Profile:** Total non-current borrowings are €10.776 billion, with a significant portion (€7.893 billion) related to infrastructure project debt, which is typically non-recourse. Corporate-level borrowings (excluding infrastructure) are €2.883 billion non-current and €0.803 billion current. - **Refinancing Needs:** Current borrowings (€877 million) are well-covered by the cash balance. The debt maturity profile does not indicate an immediate, large-scale refinancing cliff that would force a distressed issuance. **Profitability and Cash Flow:** - **Operating Performance:** The company generated a profit from operating activities of €423 million and an operating cash flow of €1.002 billion. This strong cash generation supports organic deleveraging. - **Investment Activity:** Investments in infrastructure projects were €784 million, and investments in associates were €347 million, totaling a significant capex program. However, this was partially offset by divestments (€429 million). The free operating cash flow before expansionary capex appears healthy. **Capital Structure and Leverage:** - **Equity:** Total equity is €6.354 billion, with €508 million in "Other Equity Securities" which represents existing hybrid instruments (perpetual subordinated bonds). - **Adjusted Capital:** Total reported equity (€6.354B) + Existing hybrids (€0.508B). The current S&P cap for hybrid equity credit is 15% of total adjusted capital. - **Rating Considerations:** The financial risk profile is robust, with strong liquidity and manageable leverage for a transportation infrastructure company. The substantial cash holdings and strong operating cash flow provide significant rating headroom. ### Assessment Against the Guidelines - **0% of total adjusted capital:** - *Guideline check:* "Strong rating profile, 'A' range, and no extraordinary capex needs", "Low refinancing needs", "Cost of hybrid will materially increase the current cost of debt". - *Analysis:* Ferrovial exhibits a strong financial profile. It already has hybrids in its capital structure (€508 million in "Other Equity Securities"). The company has no pressing, extraordinary refinancing needs, and its current cost of debt is low compared to the cost of issuing new subordinated hybrid debt in the rising rate environment of 2022, where the 10Y swap rate averaged 1.927% and the sub-senior delta was 2.295%. The cost of a new hybrid would be significantly dilutive to the interest coverage ratio without a compelling rating need. - **3.75% of total adjusted capital:** - *Guideline check:* "Moderate funding needs", "Mild leverage optimization rationale". - *Analysis:* While the company has an active investment program, its funding is comfortably covered by internal cash flow and the existing cash pile. There is no evidence of "moderate funding needs" that cannot be met with senior debt or cash on hand. The leverage optimization rationale is mild at best, as the balance sheet is already very liquid. - **7.5% and above:** - *Guideline check:* "Moderate refinancing or acquisition needs", "Rating headroom moderately constrained", "Significant leverage pressure". - *Analysis:* None of these conditions apply. Ferrovial’s cash balance exceeds its total current borrowings and is nearly double its non-infrastructure corporate debt. The company is not under leverage pressure, refinancing is not a concern, and rating headroom is not constrained. Issuing a costly hybrid instrument would unnecessarily burden the income statement. ### Conclusion Ferrovial SA has a fortress balance sheet with exceptionally high liquidity and strong operating cash flow. The company has no need to issue expensive hybrid debt to fund operations, refinance maturities, or defend its credit rating. Given the significantly higher cost of hybrid bonds relative to current debt costs and the lack of any credit metric pressure, the recommended issuance level is 0%. The existing hybrids already provide some equity credit, and adding more would be financially inefficient. 0%