Step 1 — Relevant industry  
VINCI is a diversified concessions, construction, and infrastructure group. Based on the methodologies provided, the closest relevant sector is Transportation Infrastructure, because VINCI has large concession activities, notably toll roads and airports, but the group also has substantial contracting/construction operations. Therefore, I apply the transportation-infrastructure framework directionally, while using the general corporate baseline calculations because the provided facts do not split cash flow and debt fully by concession versus contracting segments.

Step 2 — Estimate 2021 Adjusted EBITDA  
Using reconstructed EBITDA:

- 2021 profit from operating activities: €4.438bn  
- 2021 depreciation and amortisation: €3.219bn  
- 2021 non-recurring operating expense: €0.026bn loss, already included in operating profit. Add back non-recurring loss.

EBITDA before non-recurring adjustment = 4.438 + 3.219 = €7.657bn  
Adjusted EBITDA = 7.657 + 0.026 = €7.683bn

Estimated 2021 Adjusted EBITDA: €7.683bn

Step 3 — Estimate 2021 FFO  
Baseline formula:

FFO = Adjusted EBITDA − cash interest − cash taxes

Using:
- 2021 cash interest paid/received classified as operating activities: €0.557bn  
- 2021 income taxes paid: €1.213bn

FFO = 7.683 − 0.557 − 1.213 = €5.913bn

Estimated 2021 FFO: €5.913bn

Step 4 — Estimate 2021 Adjusted Debt  
Reported debt at 2021 year-end / 2022-01-01:

- Noncurrent bonds: €22.212bn  
- Noncurrent other borrowings: €2.757bn  
- Short-term borrowings: €5.769bn  
- Noncurrent lease liabilities: €1.574bn  
- Current lease liabilities: €0.524bn  

Gross debt including leases = 22.212 + 2.757 + 5.769 + 1.574 + 0.524 = €32.836bn

Eligible cash:
- Cash and cash equivalents: €11.065bn  
- Current cash management financial assets: €0.200bn  

Eligible cash = €11.265bn

Adjusted Debt = 32.836 − 11.265 = €21.571bn

Estimated 2021 Adjusted Debt: €21.571bn

Step 5 — 2021 Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA  
Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA = 21.571 / 7.683 = 2.81x

Step 6 — 2021 FFO / Adjusted Debt  
FFO / Adjusted Debt = 5.913 / 21.571 = 0.274, or 27.4%

Step 7 — Estimate 2022 Adjusted EBITDA  
Using reconstructed EBITDA:

- 2022 profit from operating activities: €6.489bn  
- 2022 depreciation and amortisation: €3.613bn  
- 2022 non-recurring operating income: €0.008bn gain. Subtract non-recurring gain.

EBITDA before non-recurring adjustment = 6.489 + 3.613 = €10.102bn  
Adjusted EBITDA = 10.102 − 0.008 = €10.094bn

Estimated 2022 Adjusted EBITDA: €10.094bn

Step 8 — Estimate 2022 FFO  
Using:
- 2022 cash interest paid/received classified as operating activities: €0.563bn  
- 2022 income taxes paid: €1.603bn

FFO = 10.094 − 0.563 − 1.603 = €7.928bn

Estimated 2022 FFO: €7.928bn

Step 9 — Estimate 2022 Adjusted Debt  
Reported debt at 2022 year-end / 2023-01-01:

- Noncurrent bonds: €20.425bn  
- Noncurrent other borrowings: €3.205bn  
- Short-term borrowings: €6.368bn  
- Noncurrent lease liabilities: €1.580bn  
- Current lease liabilities: €0.522bn  

Gross debt including leases = 20.425 + 3.205 + 6.368 + 1.580 + 0.522 = €32.100bn

Eligible cash:
- Cash and cash equivalents: €12.578bn  
- Current cash management financial assets: €0.755bn  

Eligible cash = €13.333bn

Adjusted Debt = 32.100 − 13.333 = €18.767bn

Estimated 2022 Adjusted Debt: €18.767bn

Step 10 — 2022 Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA  
Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA = 18.767 / 10.094 = 1.86x

Step 11 — 2022 FFO / Adjusted Debt  
FFO / Adjusted Debt = 7.928 / 18.767 = 0.423, or 42.3%

Step 12 — Year-on-year credit trend classification  

Signal 1: Leverage  
- 2021 Adjusted Debt / EBITDA: 2.81x  
- 2022 Adjusted Debt / EBITDA: 1.86x  
- Change = 1.86 − 2.81 = -0.95x  

This is below the -0.2x improvement threshold, so leverage signal is Improving.

Signal 2: Cash-flow coverage  
- 2021 FFO / Debt: 0.274  
- 2022 FFO / Debt: 0.423  
- Change = 0.423 − 0.274 = +0.149  

This is above the +0.03 improvement threshold, so cash-flow coverage signal is Improving.

Both signals agree. VINCI’s credit trend from 2021 to 2022 is therefore Improving. The improvement is material: EBITDA and FFO rose strongly, while net adjusted debt declined due to higher cash balances and slightly lower gross debt.

<answer>Improving</answer>