To estimate the credit trend for Italgas S.p.A. between 2021 and 2022, we follow the provided workflow: ### Step 1: Industry Identification Italgas is primarily a gas distribution company. Based on the industry descriptions, it falls under **Regulated Utilities**. ### Step 2-4: Financial Estimates (2021/2022) *Data for 2021 is derived from the "2022-01-01" snapshot (reporting the fiscal year ending 2021). Data for 2022 is derived from the "2023-01-01" snapshot.* **Adjusted EBITDA Calculation:** *EBITDA ≈ Operating Profit + Depreciation/Amortization + Impairment* - **2021:** 583,231k + 445,251k = 1,028,482k EUR - **2022:** 641,338k + 479,186k = 1,120,524k EUR **FFO Calculation:** *FFO = Adj_EBITDA - Cash Interest - Cash Taxes* - **2021:** 1,028,482k - 59,783k - 206,923k = 761,776k EUR - **2022:** 1,120,524k - 53,720k - 152,372k = 914,432k EUR **Adjusted Debt Calculation:** *Adj_Debt = Short/Long Term Fin Liabilities - Cash* - **2021:** (591,188k + 5,785,707k) - 1,391,763k = 4,985,132k EUR - **2022:** (142,437k + 6,402,913k) - 451,946k = 6,093,404k EUR ### Step 5-6: 2021 Ratios - **Debt/EBITDA:** 4,985,132 / 1,028,482 = **4.85x** - **FFO/Debt:** 761,776 / 4,985,132 = **0.153** ### Step 10-11: 2022 Ratios - **Debt/EBITDA:** 6,093,404 / 1,120,524 = **5.44x** - **FFO/Debt:** 914,432 / 6,093,404 = **0.150** ### Step 12: Credit Trend Analysis - **Signal 1 (Leverage):** 5.44x - 4.85x = **+0.59x** (Deteriorating; threshold ≥ +0.2x) - **Signal 2 (Coverage):** 0.150 - 0.153 = **-0.003** (Stable; threshold ±0.03) **Reasoning:** Leverage has deteriorated significantly (+0.59x), while cash flow coverage remains stable. Given the substantial increase in debt (partially driven by investments) and the resulting leverage ratio exceeding the deterioration threshold, the overall trend is deteriorating. Deteriorating