To estimate the S&P adjusted leverage trend, we need to calculate the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio for the years ending 2022 (data as of 2022-01-01, representing the full year 2021 performance and year-end 2021 balance sheet, but typically leverage ratios use the year-end balance sheet and the trailing twelve months income statement. However, the prompt provides data labeled with dates like "2023-01-01" which corresponds to the balance sheet at the end of 2022, and flow data for the period "2022-01-01 - 2023-01-01" which is the fiscal year 2022. Similarly, "2022-01-01" balance sheet is end of 2021, and flow data "2021-01-01 - 2022-01-01" is fiscal year 2021. Let's clarify the periods: - **Year 2022 Metrics**: - EBITDA (Beneficio Bruto De Explotacion Ebitda) for period 2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01: 4,954,000,000 EUR. - Net Debt calculation requires Total Debt and Cash. - Total Debt = Noncurrent Financial Liabilities + Current Financial Liabilities. - Noncurrent Financial Liabilities (2023-01-01): 13,999,000,000 EUR. - Current Financial Liabilities (2023-01-01): 2,302,000,000 EUR. - Total Debt (2022 YE) = 13,999 + 2,302 = 16,301,000,000 EUR. - Cash and Cash Equivalents (2023-01-01): 3,985,000,000 EUR. - Net Debt (2022 YE) = Total Debt - Cash = 16,301 - 3,985 = 12,316,000,000 EUR. - Leverage Ratio 2022 = Net Debt / EBITDA = 12,316 / 4,954 ≈ 2.486x. - **Year 2021 Metrics** (for year-on-year comparison, often referred to as the previous year in the context of "2022 trend" vs "2021 trend", or if the question implies comparing the ratio calculated at the end of 2022 vs end of 2021): - EBITDA (Beneficio Bruto De Explotacion Ebitda) for period 2021-01-01 to 2022-01-01: 3,529,000,000 EUR. - Total Debt calculation: - Noncurrent Financial Liabilities (2022-01-01): 15,114,000,000 EUR. - Current Financial Liabilities (2022-01-01): 1,698,000,000 EUR. - Total Debt (2021 YE) = 15,114 + 1,698 = 16,812,000,000 EUR. - Cash and Cash Equivalents (2022-01-01): 3,965,000,000 EUR. - Net Debt (2021 YE) = 16,812 - 3,965 = 12,847,000,000 EUR. - Leverage Ratio 2021 = Net Debt / EBITDA = 12,847 / 3,529 ≈ 3.640x. The question asks for the trend for 2022. This usually implies comparing the 2022 ratio to the 2021 ratio. - Ratio 2021: ~3.64x - Ratio 2022: ~2.49x Change in ratio = 2.49 - 3.64 = -1.15x. The definition provided states: - **Stable**: gap is among ± 0.3x (i.e., between -0.3x and +0.3x). - **Improving**: gap is lower than 0.3x. Note: The phrasing "lower than 0.3x" is slightly ambiguous. Usually, a decrease in leverage is "improving". A gap of -1.15x is mathematically lower than 0.3x. Also, in credit analysis, a significant drop in leverage is an improvement. The prompt says "if the gap ... is lower than 0.3x is improving". Since -1.15 < 0.3, this fits the condition. Furthermore, a reduction in leverage is fundamentally an improvement in credit quality. - **Deteriorating**: If higher (presumably higher than 0.3x). Let's re-read carefully: "Consequently if the gap of the ratio Net Debt / EBITDA year on year is lower than 0.3x is improving. If higher is Deteriorating." This phrasing is tricky. "Lower than 0.3x" could mean `< 0.3`. "Higher" could mean `> 0.3`. What about between -0.3 and 0.3? The first sentence says "The definition of Stable is : the gap ... is among ± 0.3x". This implies Stable is `[-0.3, 0.3]`. So: - If Gap < -0.3: Improving (Leverage went down significantly). - If Gap > 0.3: Deteriorating (Leverage went up significantly). - If -0.3 <= Gap <= 0.3: Stable. Our calculated gap is -1.15x. -1.15 is less than -0.3. Therefore, the leverage has improved significantly. Let's double check the numbers. 2022 Net Debt: 16,301 - 3,985 = 12,316. EBITDA: 4,954. Ratio: 2.486. 2021 Net Debt: 16,812 - 3,965 = 12,847. EBITDA: 3,529. Ratio: 3.640. Difference: 2.486 - 3.640 = -1.154. The gap is -1.15x. Is -1.15 < 0.3? Yes. Is it in the stable range [-0.3, 0.3]? No. Since the leverage decreased (negative gap), the credit profile improved. The condition "lower than 0.3x" technically includes the stable range if interpreted strictly mathematically (< 0.3), but the "Stable" definition overrides for the range [-0.3, 0.3]. Since -1.15 is outside the stable range and represents a decrease, it is Improving. Improving