To estimate the S&P adjusted leverage trend, we need to calculate the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio for the fiscal years ending 2022 (period 2021-01-01 to 2022-01-01) and 2023 (period 2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01). **Step 1: Calculate EBITDA for both periods.** EBITDA is typically calculated as Operating Income + Depreciation, Amortization, and Impairment. The report provides "Operating Income Before Share Of Net Income Loss Of Equity Accounted Entities" and "Operating Depreciation Amortization Provisions And Impairment Losses". Note that S&P often uses an adjusted EBITDA which may include share of results from equity-accounted entities if they are core, but standard leverage usually starts with Operating EBITDA. Let's use the provided Operating Income before equity share and add back D&A. * **FY 2022 (Period 2021-2022):** * Operating Income (before equity share): 1,212,700,000 EUR * Operating D&A: 2,117,200,000 EUR * EBITDA 2022 = 1,212,700,000 + 2,117,200,000 = **3,329,900,000 EUR** * **FY 2023 (Period 2022-2023):** * Operating Income (before equity share): 2,206,300,000 EUR * Operating D&A: 3,178,600,000 EUR * EBITDA 2023 = 2,206,300,000 + 3,178,600,000 = **5,384,900,000 EUR** *(Note: Even if we included the share of net income from equity entities, the trend direction would likely remain similar given the massive increase in operating scale, but standard leverage ratios often focus on the core operating performance or use Reported EBITDA. Let's stick to the core operating figures provided.)* **Step 2: Calculate Net Debt for both year-ends.** Net Debt = Total Financial Debt - Cash and Cash Equivalents. Financial Debt includes Current and Noncurrent Financial Liabilities, Lease Liabilities, and potentially other interest-bearing items. We exclude operating liabilities like payables and provisions. * **Year-End 2022 (2022-01-01):** * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities Excluding Concession Liabilities: 10,462,500,000 EUR * Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: 1,298,100,000 EUR * Noncurrent Concession Liabilities: 1,588,400,000 EUR (Often treated as debt in utility/infrastructure leverage calculations) * Current Financial Liabilities Excluding Concession Liabilities: 8,624,300,000 EUR * Current Lease Liabilities: 410,600,000 EUR * Current Concession Liabilities: 169,400,000 EUR * Bank Overdrafts: 241,900,000 EUR * *Total Gross Debt* = 10,462.5 + 1,298.1 + 1,588.4 + 8,624.3 + 410.6 + 169.4 + 241.9 = **22,795,200,000 EUR** * Cash and Cash Equivalents: 10,518,700,000 EUR * *Net Debt 2022* = 22,795,200,000 - 10,518,700,000 = **12,276,500,000 EUR** * **Year-End 2023 (2023-01-01):** * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities Excluding Concession Liabilities: 19,692,100,000 EUR * Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: 1,656,200,000 EUR * Noncurrent Concession Liabilities: 1,680,500,000 EUR * Current Financial Liabilities Excluding Concession Liabilities: 6,521,400,000 EUR * Current Lease Liabilities: 496,500,000 EUR * Current Concession Liabilities: 243,200,000 EUR * Bank Overdrafts: 213,600,000 EUR * *Total Gross Debt* = 19,692.1 + 1,656.2 + 1,680.5 + 6,521.4 + 496.5 + 243.2 + 213.6 = **30,503,500,000 EUR** * Cash and Cash Equivalents: 9,012,200,000 EUR * *Net Debt 2023* = 30,503,500,000 - 9,012,200,000 = **21,491,300,000 EUR** **Step 3: Calculate Leverage Ratios (Net Debt / EBITDA).** * **Leverage 2022:** * Ratio = 12,276,500,000 / 3,329,900,000 ≈ **3.69x** * **Leverage 2023:** * Ratio = 21,491,300,000 / 5,384,900,000 ≈ **3.99x** **Step 4: Determine the Trend.** * Change in Leverage = 3.99x - 3.69x = **+0.30x** The definition states: * Stable: Gap is among ± 0.3x (i.e., between -0.3 and +0.3 inclusive, or strictly within? Usually "among" implies within the range). * Improving: Gap < 0.3x (This phrasing is slightly ambiguous. Usually, improving means leverage goes down, i.e., negative gap. "Lower than 0.3x" could mean algebraically lower. If the gap is -0.1, it is improving. If the gap is +0.1, is it improving? No, leverage increased. However, the prompt says "if the gap ... is lower than 0.3x is improving". This likely implies that if the *increase* is small or negative, it's improving/stable. But let's look at the "Deteriorating" condition: "If higher is Deteriorating". Higher than what? Higher than 0.3x. * Let's re-read carefully: "Consequently if the gap of the ratio Net Debt / EBITDA year on year is lower than 0.3x is improving. If higher is Deteriorating." * This implies a threshold at 0.3x. * Gap = 0.30x. * Is 0.30 lower than 0.3? No, it is equal. * Is 0.30 higher than 0.3? No, it is equal. * The "Stable" definition says the gap is "among ± 0.3x". This usually means the interval [-0.3, 0.3]. * Since the gap is exactly 0.30x, it falls within the "Stable" range (boundary inclusive). * However, let's look closer at the numbers. * EBITDA 2022: 3,329.9m. Net Debt 2022: 12,276.5m. Ratio: 3.6867. * EBITDA 2023: 5,384.9m. Net Debt 2023: 21,491.3m. Ratio: 3.9910. * Difference: 3.9910 - 3.6867 = 0.3043. * The gap is **0.3043x**. * 0.3043 is **higher** than 0.3. * Therefore, according to the rule "If higher [than 0.3x] is Deteriorating", the trend is Deteriorating. Let's double check the Net Debt calculation. S&P adjustments might exclude certain items or include others. Common S&P adjustments for Veolia might include treating "Titres Super Subordonnes" (Deeply Subordinated Securities) as equity rather than debt. * Titres Super Subordonnes 2022: 2,460,700,000 EUR. * Titres Super Subordonnes 2023: 3,496,300,000 EUR. If we treat these as equity (which reduces Net Debt): * **Adjusted Net Debt 2022:** 12,276,500,000 - 2,460,700,000 = **9,815,800,000 EUR** * **Adjusted Net Debt 2023:** 21,491,300,000 - 3,496,300,000 = **17,995,000,000 EUR** Recalculate Ratios with Adjusted Net Debt: * **Leverage 2022:** 9,815,800,000 / 3,329,900,000 ≈ **2.95x** * **Leverage 2023:** 17,995,000,000 / 5,384,900,000 ≈ **3.34x** Calculate Gap: * Gap = 3.34 - 2.95 = **0.39x** 0.39x is clearly **higher** than 0.3x. Therefore, the trend is **Deteriorating**. Let's check if EBITDA should include the share of equity income. "Resultat Operationnel Apres Quote Part De Resultat Net Dans Les Entites Mises En Equivalence" is 1,317.5m (2022) and 2,333.3m (2023). If we use this as the starting point for EBITDA (adding back D&A): * EBITDA 2022 (Adj) = 1,317.5 + 2,117.2 = 3,434.7m * EBITDA 2023 (Adj) = 2,333.3 + 3,178.6 = 5,511.9m Recalculate Ratios with Adjusted Net Debt and Adjusted EBITDA: * **Leverage 2022:** 9,815.8 / 3,434.7 ≈ **2.86x** * **Leverage 2023:** 17,995.0 / 5,511.9 ≈ **3.26x** * Gap = 3.26 - 2.86 = **0.40x** 0.40x is higher than 0.3x. What if we don't adjust debt for subordinated securities? * Gap was ~0.304x (borderline/higher). * With standard S&P methodology, hybrid debt like "Titres Super Subordonnes" is often given partial or full equity credit if it meets specific criteria (perpetual, deferrable coupons). Veolia's TSS are typically treated as equity or mezzanine with high equity credit. Given the explicit line item and the magnitude, treating them as debt overstates leverage, but even treating them as debt resulted in a gap > 0.3 (0.304). Treating them as equity (more likely for S&P "adjusted" leverage) results in a gap of ~0.4, which is definitively deteriorating. In both scenarios (raw debt or adjusted debt), the gap is >= 0.30x. - Raw Debt Gap: ~0.304x (> 0.3) -> Deteriorating. - Adjusted Debt Gap: ~0.39-0.40x (> 0.3) -> Deteriorating. The increase in leverage is driven by the acquisition of Suez (indicated by the massive jump in assets, revenue, and debt between 2022 and 2023). While EBITDA increased significantly, Net Debt increased even more in proportion, or the integration costs/structure led to a higher multiple. The gap exceeds the 0.3x threshold for stability. Deteriorating