To estimate the S&P adjusted leverage trend, we need to calculate the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio for the fiscal years ending 2022 (data as of 2022-01-01) and 2023 (data as of 2023-01-01). Note that in financial reporting, the balance sheet date "2023-01-01" typically represents the closing balance for the fiscal year 2022, and "2022-01-01" represents the closing balance for fiscal year 2021. However, the prompt asks for the trend for "2022" based on the provided facts which label the periods. Let's clarify the periods based on the income statement data provided: - The income statement data labeled "2022-01-01 - 2023-01-01" corresponds to the fiscal year 2022 performance. - The income statement data labeled "2021-01-01 - 2022-01-01" corresponds to the fiscal year 2021 performance. - The balance sheet data labeled "2023-01-01" is the closing position for FY2022. - The balance sheet data labeled "2022-01-01" is the closing position for FY2021. The prompt asks for the trend for 2022. Usually, leverage trends are compared year-over-year. We will compare the leverage ratio at the end of FY2022 (2023-01-01) with the leverage ratio at the end of FY2021 (2022-01-01). **Step 1: Calculate EBITDA for FY2022 and FY2021.** EBITDA is generally calculated as Profit from Operations + Depreciation & Amortization. From the data: * **FY2022 (2022-01-01 to 2023-01-01):** * Profit Loss From Operating Activities: 423,000,000 EUR * Amortisation Expense: 299,000,000 EUR * *Note: Depreciation is often included in operating expenses or amortization lines. The line "Ajustes Al Resultado Por Gastos Por Depreciacion YAmortizacion" in the cash flow section is 299,000,000 EUR, which matches the Amortisation Expense line. We assume this covers D&A.* * EBITDA 2022 = 423,000,000 + 299,000,000 = **722,000,000 EUR** * **FY2021 (2021-01-01 to 2022-01-01):** * Profit Loss From Operating Activities: 1,479,000,000 EUR * Amortisation Expense: 270,000,000 EUR * EBITDA 2021 = 1,479,000,000 + 270,000,000 = **1,749,000,000 EUR** *Wait, looking closer at the "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" for 2021, it includes a huge "Fair Value Adjustments Member" of 1,100,000,000 EUR. S&P adjusted EBITDA typically excludes one-off fair value gains/losses and impairment/gains on disposals. Let's look at the "Before Fair Value Adjustments Member" lines which are more representative of operational performance.* * **Adjusted EBITDA FY2022:** * Profit From Operations Before Impairment And Disposals (Before FV): 428,000,000 EUR * Add back Amortization (Before FV): 299,000,000 EUR * Adjusted EBITDA 2022 ≈ 428 + 299 = **727,000,000 EUR** * Alternatively, using Net Profit and adding back interest, tax, depreciation, amortization, and adjusting for one-offs. * Let's stick to the Operating Profit + D&A method but ensure we use the "Before Fair Value" numbers if possible, or standard EBITDA. * Standard EBITDA 2022 = 423m (Op Profit) + 299m (Amort) = 722m. * Standard EBITDA 2021 = 1,479m (Op Profit) + 270m (Amort) = 1,749m. * The drop in operating profit from 2021 to 2022 is significant, largely due to the 1.1B fair value gain in 2021. For leverage trends, S&P usually normalizes these. Let's calculate Net Debt first. **Step 2: Calculate Net Debt for FY2022 (End 2023-01-01) and FY2021 (End 2022-01-01).** Net Debt = Total Debt - Cash and Cash Equivalents. Total Debt includes Current and Non-current borrowings. * **For 2023-01-01 (FY2022 End):** * Noncurrent Portion Of Other Noncurrent Borrowings: 10,776,000,000 EUR * Noncurrent Debt Securities And Bank Borrowings Of Infrastructure Projects: 7,893,000,000 EUR * Current Borrowings And Current Portion Of Noncurrent Borrowings: 877,000,000 EUR * Current Debt Securities And Bank Borrowings Of Infrastructure Projects: 74,000,000 EUR * *Note: The "Noncurrent Portion..." line seems to be a subtotal or aggregate. Let's check the components.* * The line "Noncurrent Portion Of Other Noncurrent Borrowings" (10,776) appears to be the sum of "Noncurrent Debt Securities... Infra" (7,893) and "Noncurrent Debt Securities... Excl Infra" (2,883). 7,893 + 2,883 = 10,776. So we should not double count. We will use the detailed components or the aggregate "Noncurrent Portion..." plus current portions. * Total Noncurrent Debt = 10,776,000,000 EUR (This covers all non-current interest-bearing debt). * Total Current Debt = "Current Borrowings And Current Portion..." (877,000,000). This line likely aggregates "Current Debt Securities... Infra" (74) and "Current Debt Securities... Excl Infra" (803). 74 + 803 = 877. So this is the total current debt. * Total Gross Debt 2023-01-01 = 10,776,000,000 + 877,000,000 = **11,653,000,000 EUR**. * Cash And Cash Equivalents 2023-01-01 = **5,130,000,000 EUR**. * Net Debt 2023-01-01 = 11,653,000,000 - 5,130,000,000 = **6,523,000,000 EUR**. * **For 2022-01-01 (FY2021 End):** * Noncurrent Portion Of Other Noncurrent Borrowings: 9,513,000,000 EUR. (Check: 7,362 + 2,151 = 9,513). * Current Borrowings And Current Portion...: 1,096,000,000 EUR. (Check: 47 + 1,049 = 1,096). * Total Gross Debt 2022-01-01 = 9,513,000,000 + 1,096,000,000 = **10,609,000,000 EUR**. * Cash And Cash Equivalents 2022-01-01 = **5,536,000,000 EUR**. * Net Debt 2022-01-01 = 10,609,000,000 - 5,536,000,000 = **5,073,000,000 EUR**. **Step 3: Calculate Leverage Ratios (Net Debt / EBITDA).** We need to determine the appropriate EBITDA denominator. S&P often uses a trailing 12-month EBITDA or an adjusted EBITDA. Let's use the reported EBITDA (Op Profit + D&A) first. * **Ratio 2021 (using 2021 EBITDA and 2021 Net Debt):** * Net Debt (2022-01-01): 5,073,000,000 EUR * EBITDA (2021): 1,749,000,000 EUR * Leverage 2021 = 5,073 / 1,749 ≈ **2.90x** * **Ratio 2022 (using 2022 EBITDA and 2022 Net Debt):** * Net Debt (2023-01-01): 6,523,000,000 EUR * EBITDA (2022): 722,000,000 EUR * Leverage 2022 = 6,523 / 722 ≈ **9.03x** This massive increase is driven by the drop in EBITDA due to the absence of the 1.1B fair value gain in 2022. However, S&P "Adjusted Leverage" typically normalizes for such one-off items. Let's look at "Profit From Operations Before Impairment And Disposals" and adjust. * **Adjusted EBITDA Calculation:** * **2021:** * Profit From Ops Before Impairment/Disposals (Before FV): 341,000,000 * Add Amortization: 270,000,000 * Add back Fair Value Adjustments? The "Fair Value Adjustments Member" for Op Profit is 1,100,000,000. * If we exclude the FV gain, the core operating profit is much lower. * Core EBITDA 2021 ≈ 341 + 270 = 611,000,000 EUR. * Leverage 2021 (Core) = 5,073 / 611 ≈ **8.30x** * **2022:** * Profit From Ops Before Impairment/Disposals (Before FV): 428,000,000 * Add Amortization: 299,000,000 * Core EBITDA 2022 ≈ 428 + 299 = 727,000,000 EUR. * Leverage 2022 (Core) = 6,523 / 727 ≈ **8.97x** * **Comparison:** * Leverage 2021 (Core): ~8.30x * Leverage 2022 (Core): ~8.97x * Difference: 8.97 - 8.30 = **+0.67x** The gap is greater than 0.3x. The leverage has increased (deteriorated) by approximately 0.67x. Let's double check if there are other adjustments. S&P might add back share-based payments or other items. Share of profit of associates is equity accounted, so it's below EBITDA. The "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" includes the result of associates? No, usually "Profit from Operations" is before financial results and associates. The data shows "Share Of Profit Loss Of Associates" separately below "Finance Income Cost". So EBITDA derived from Operating Profit is correct. Let's re-verify the Net Debt calculation. S&P Net Debt often includes lease liabilities. * **2023-01-01:** * Gross Debt calculated: 11,653,000,000 * Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: 120,000,000 * Current Lease Liabilities: 64,000,000 * Total Leases: 184,000,000 * Adjusted Gross Debt = 11,653 + 184 = 11,837,000,000 * Net Debt = 11,837 - 5,130 = **6,707,000,000** * Leverage 2022 = 6,707 / 727 ≈ **9.22x** * **2022-01-01:** * Gross Debt calculated: 10,609,000,000 * Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: 115,000,000 * Current Lease Liabilities: 58,000,000 * Total Leases: 173,000,000 * Adjusted Gross Debt = 10,609 + 173 = 10,782,000,000 * Net Debt = 10,782 - 5,536 = **5,246,000,000** * Leverage 2021 = 5,246 / 611 ≈ **8.59x** * **Difference:** 9.22 - 8.59 = **0.63x** The leverage ratio increased by roughly 0.63x. According to the definition: - Gap > 0.3x implies Deteriorating. - Gap < -0.3x implies Improving. - Gap between -0.3x and 0.3x implies Stable. Since the leverage increased (worsened) by more than 0.3x, the trend is Deteriorating. Even if we used the unadjusted EBITDA (which includes the one-off gain in 2021), the leverage would look like it went from 2.9x to 9.0x, which is a massive deterioration. However, "Adjusted Leverage" implies normalization. Using the normalized core operating profits, the leverage still deteriorated from ~8.6x to ~9.2x. The increase in Net Debt (from ~5.2B to ~6.7B) combined with a slight increase in Core EBITDA (from ~611M to ~727M) results in a higher ratio. The debt increase is the primary driver. Net Debt increased by ~1.46B EUR. EBITDA increased by ~116M EUR. The ratio clearly moves up. Therefore, the trend is Deteriorating. Deteriorating