I need to analyze whether ENEL should utilize hybrid bonds relative to S&P's 15% cap on equity credit for hybrids as a percentage of total adjusted capital. ## Key Analysis ### Current Hybrid Bond Usage From the equity statement, ENEL has perpetual hybrid bonds: - "Equity Instruments Perpetual Hybrid Bonds Member" at end of 2022: €5,567 million - At end of 2021: €5,567 million (same, since no new issuances in 2022) - At start of 2021: €2,386 million - In 2021, they issued €3,181 million in new hybrid bonds ### Total Adjusted Capital Calculation Total adjusted capital = Debt + Equity **Debt components (end 2022/Jan 1, 2023):** - Long-term borrowings: €68,191M - Short-term borrowings: €18,392M - Current portion of long-term borrowings: €2,835M - Total debt ≈ €89,418M **Equity:** €42,082M **Total adjusted capital:** ~€131,500M ### S&P's 15% Cap 15% of total adjusted capital = 0.15 × €131,500M ≈ €19,725M ### Current hybrid bonds as % of adjusted capital €5,567M / €131,500M ≈ 4.2% This is well below the 15% cap, meaning there's significant room to issue more hybrids. ### Reasons to Utilize Hybrids 1. **High leverage:** ENEL has significant debt (~€89B) relative to equity (~€42B). Debt-to-equity ratio is about 2.1x. Hybrid bonds with equity credit can help improve credit metrics. 2. **Interest rate environment:** The swap curve shows rates rose dramatically in 2022 (5Y from -0.264% to 1.726%). Higher rates make the cost of new debt more expensive, but hybrids issued earlier at lower rates provide value. 3. **Credit spreads:** Corporate bond spreads and subordinated spreads have increased, making hybrid issuance more expensive but also signaling credit concerns where equity credit is valuable. 4. **Declining profitability:** Net income fell from €3,857M to €2,920M, with significant losses from discontinued operations (-€2,298M). The company needs to maintain investment-grade ratings. 5. **Large capex program:** Investing activities of €13,626M indicate significant capital needs for energy transition. 6. **Dividend commitments:** €4,900M in dividends paid, representing a significant cash outflow. 7. **Already an active hybrid issuer:** ENEL has been using hybrids actively (€5.6B outstanding), showing comfort with the instrument and market access. 8. **Coupon costs manageable:** Hybrid bond coupons were only €123M on €5.6B, suggesting relatively low coupon rates on existing hybrids. ### Reasons for Caution - Rising rates make new hybrid issuance expensive - The subordinated spread delta of 0.2% adds cost - Company already has hybrids but is well within the cap ### Assessment ENEL is a large utility with significant capital needs, high leverage, and declining earnings. It's an investment-grade company that benefits from the equity credit of hybrids to maintain ratings. The current utilization is only about 4.2% vs. the 15% cap, suggesting room for more. However, the company is already a sophisticated user of hybrids and has been actively issuing them. Given: - Strong strategic rationale for hybrids (capital-intensive utility, high leverage) - Already proven comfort with hybrid instruments - Well below the 15% cap currently - Rising rate environment makes cost consideration important but doesn't eliminate the structural benefit - Need to balance cost vs. credit metric improvement The company should actively utilize the hybrid capacity but perhaps not push to the absolute maximum given cost considerations in the current rate environment. A utilization of 75% of the cap seems appropriate - enough to meaningfully benefit credit metrics while leaving some buffer. 75%