To estimate Moody’s adjusted leverage trend for HERA S.P.A. in 2022, we need to calculate the leverage ratio (Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA) for both 2021 and 2022 and compare them. **1. Calculate Adjusted Debt:** Moody's typically defines Adjusted Debt as Reported Debt plus adjustments for items like operating leases, pensions, and other off-balance-sheet liabilities. In the absence of specific adjustment factors, we use the reported financial liabilities as a proxy, noting that lease liabilities are already included in the balance sheet under IFRS 16. * **2022 (Period ending 2023-01-01):** * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 5,689,900,000 EUR * Current Financial Liabilities: 650,100,000 EUR * Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: 55,100,000 EUR * Current Lease Liabilities: 21,300,000 EUR * *Total Reported Debt Proxy* = 5,689.9 + 650.1 + 55.1 + 21.3 = **6,416.4 million EUR** * **2021 (Period ending 2022-01-01):** * Noncurrent Financial Liabilities: 3,716,000,000 EUR * Current Financial Liabilities: 499,700,000 EUR * Noncurrent Lease Liabilities: 53,200,000 EUR * Current Lease Liabilities: 43,400,000 EUR * *Total Reported Debt Proxy* = 3,716.0 + 499.7 + 53.2 + 43.4 = **4,312.3 million EUR** * **Change in Debt:** The debt increased significantly from ~4,312 million EUR to ~6,416 million EUR. This is an increase of approximately 2,104 million EUR. **2. Calculate Adjusted EBITDA:** EBITDA is Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization. We can derive this from the "Profit Loss From Operating Activities" (Operating Profit) by adding back Depreciation and Amortization. * **2022 (Period ending 2023-01-01):** * Profit Loss From Operating Activities: 533,800,000 EUR * Amortisation Depreciation And Provisions: 667,100,000 EUR * *EBITDA Proxy* = 533.8 + 667.1 = **1,200.9 million EUR** * *Note:* The cash flow statement shows "Cash Flows From Used In Operations Before Changes In Working Capital" as 1,202.0 million, which aligns closely with this EBITDA figure. * **2021 (Period ending 2022-01-01):** * Profit Loss From Operating Activities: 611,700,000 EUR * Amortisation Depreciation And Provisions: 612,100,000 EUR * *EBITDA Proxy* = 611.7 + 612.1 = **1,223.8 million EUR** * **Change in EBITDA:** EBITDA decreased slightly from ~1,224 million EUR to ~1,201 million EUR. **3. Calculate Leverage Ratios:** * **2021 Leverage:** Debt / EBITDA = 4,312.3 / 1,223.8 ≈ **3.52x** * **2022 Leverage:** Debt / EBITDA = 6,416.4 / 1,200.9 ≈ **5.34x** **4. Trend Analysis:** The leverage ratio increased substantially from 3.52x to 5.34x. This is driven by a large increase in debt (likely due to acquisitions or significant capital expenditures funded by debt, as seen in the cash flow from financing activities showing net proceeds of ~1,779 million EUR) while operating performance (EBITDA) remained flat or slightly declined. An increase in leverage indicates a higher financial risk profile. Therefore, the trend is deteriorating. Deteriorating