To estimate Moody’s adjusted leverage trend for ENI S.P.A. in 2022, we need to analyze the change in the ratio of Adjusted Debt to Adjusted EBITDA (or a similar earnings metric like Funds From Operations) between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. **1. Calculate Adjusted Debt:** Moody's typically adjusts reported debt by adding items like operating lease liabilities and sometimes subtracting excess cash. Let's look at the reported debt and lease liabilities. * **End of 2021 (2022-01-01):** * Short-term Borrowings: 2,299 million EUR * Current Portion of Long-term Borrowings: 1,781 million EUR * Long-term Borrowings: 23,714 million EUR * Current Lease Liabilities: 948 million EUR * Non-current Lease Liabilities: 4,389 million EUR * *Total Reported Interest-Bearing Debt + Leases:* $2,299 + 1,781 + 23,714 + 948 + 4,389 = 33,131$ million EUR. * *Cash:* 8,254 million EUR. * *Net Debt (approx):* $33,131 - 8,254 = 24,877$ million EUR. * **End of 2022 (2023-01-01):** * Short-term Borrowings: 4,446 million EUR * Current Portion of Long-term Borrowings: 3,097 million EUR * Long-term Borrowings: 19,374 million EUR * Current Lease Liabilities: 884 million EUR * Non-current Lease Liabilities: 4,067 million EUR * *Total Reported Interest-Bearing Debt + Leases:* $4,446 + 3,097 + 19,374 + 884 + 4,067 = 31,868$ million EUR. * *Cash:* 10,155 million EUR. * *Net Debt (approx):* $31,868 - 10,155 = 21,713$ million EUR. The absolute net debt decreased from ~24.9 billion EUR to ~21.7 billion EUR. This is a positive sign for leverage. **2. Calculate Earnings (Proxy for EBITDA/FFO):** Leverage is a ratio, so we must consider the denominator (earnings/cash flow). * **2021 Performance (Year ended 2022-01-01):** * Profit Loss From Operating Activities: 12,341 million EUR. * Profit Loss Before Tax: 10,685 million EUR. * Profit Loss Attributable To Owners: 5,821 million EUR. * Cash Flows From Operating Activities: 12,861 million EUR. * **2022 Performance (Year ended 2023-01-01):** * Profit Loss From Operating Activities: 17,510 million EUR. * Profit Loss Before Tax: 22,049 million EUR. * Profit Loss Attributable To Owners: 13,887 million EUR. * Cash Flows From Operating Activities: 17,460 million EUR. There was a significant increase in operating profit and cash flow generation in 2022 compared to 2021. Operating profit increased by ~42%, and Operating Cash Flow increased by ~36%. **3. Assess Leverage Trend:** * **Numerator (Debt):** Decreased significantly (from ~33.1B gross debt to ~31.9B gross debt; Net debt dropped from ~24.9B to ~21.7B). * **Denominator (EBITDA/Cash Flow):** Increased significantly (Operating Profit rose from 12.3B to 17.5B). Since the debt level decreased while the earnings/cash flow capacity increased substantially, the leverage ratio (Debt/EBITDA or Debt/FFO) has improved markedly. A lower ratio indicates lower financial risk and better ability to cover debt obligations. Therefore, the leverage trend is **Improving**. Improving