I need to estimate Moody's adjusted leverage trend for 2022 by analyzing the key financial metrics that Moody's typically considers. ## Key Metrics Analysis ### Debt Analysis **Non-current financial liabilities (debt with credit entities and bonds):** - 2022 (end): 36,129M EUR - 2021 (end): 31,179M EUR **Current financial liabilities (debt with credit entities and bonds):** - 2022 (end): 10,458M EUR - 2021 (end): 9,984M EUR **Total bank debt and bonds:** - 2022: 46,587M EUR - 2021: 41,163M EUR **Lease liabilities:** - 2022: 2,287M + 151M = 2,438M EUR - 2021: 2,253M + 158M = 2,411M EUR **Hybrid instruments (capital instruments with financial liability characteristics):** - 2022: 576M + 87M = 663M EUR - 2021: 525M + 100M = 625M EUR **Cash:** - 2022: 4,608M EUR - 2021: 4,033M EUR **Gross debt (approximate Moody's adjusted):** Including leases and hybrids: - 2022: ~49,688M EUR - 2021: ~44,199M EUR **Net debt:** - 2022: ~45,080M EUR - 2021: ~40,166M EUR ### EBITDA Analysis **Reported EBITDA:** - 2022: 13,228M EUR - 2021: 12,006M EUR Moody's typically adds back operating lease expenses and makes other adjustments. The EBITDA increased by about 10.2%. ### Leverage Ratios **Gross Debt/EBITDA:** - 2022: 49,688/13,228 ≈ 3.76x - 2021: 44,199/12,006 ≈ 3.68x **Net Debt/EBITDA:** - 2022: 45,080/13,228 ≈ 3.41x - 2021: 40,166/12,006 ≈ 3.35x ### Cash Flow Coverage **FFO (Cash from operations adjusted):** - 2022: 10,443M EUR - 2021: 8,106M EUR **FFO/Debt:** - 2022: 10,443/49,688 ≈ 21.0% - 2021: 8,106/44,199 ≈ 18.3% ### Assessment The picture is mixed: - **Debt increased significantly** (~12.4% increase in gross debt) - **EBITDA also increased** (~10.2%) - **Debt/EBITDA slightly worsened** from ~3.68x to ~3.76x - **FFO/Debt improved** from ~18.3% to ~21.0% due to strong operating cash flow improvement - **Capex remained very high** with significant investment activity The debt growth outpaced EBITDA growth, leading to slightly higher leverage ratios. However, cash flow generation improved significantly. The net effect on Moody's adjusted leverage is relatively balanced - debt increased substantially but so did earnings and cash flows. The leverage ratio (Debt/EBITDA) ticked up slightly, which is a modest deterioration. While operating cash flows improved, the company took on meaningful additional debt to fund its large capex program. The overall Moody's adjusted leverage trend shows a slight deterioration as debt grew faster than EBITDA. However, considering that EBITDA grew strongly and cash flow metrics improved, the trend could be viewed as stable. The debt increase is largely investment-driven and offset partially by earnings growth. On balance, the slight uptick in Debt/EBITDA combined with the significant absolute increase in debt suggests the leverage trend is **deteriorating** slightly, though not dramatically. Deteriorating