I need to analyze HERA S.P.A.'s leverage trend for 2022. Let me start by understanding what Moody's typically considers for adjusted leverage. Moody's adjusted leverage typically focuses on: 1. Debt/EBITDA ratio 2. Trends in debt levels relative to earnings and cash flow 3. Balance sheet structure and changes Let me extract the key financial data: **2022 vs 2021 Balance Sheet Data:** | Item | 2022-01-01 | 2023-01-01 | Change | |------|-----------|-----------|--------| | Total Assets | 14,031,500,000 | 17,118,500,000 | +21.9% | | Total Equity | 3,416,800,000 | 3,644,700,000 | +6.7% | | Total Liabilities | 10,614,700,000 | 13,473,800,000 | +26.9% | **Debt Components:** Non-current financial liabilities: 3,716,000,000 → 5,689,900,000 (+53.1%) Current financial liabilities: 499,700,000 → 650,100,000 (+30.1%) Total financial debt: ~4,215,700,000 → ~6,340,000,000 (+50.4%) **Lease liabilities:** Non-current: 53,200,000 → 55,100,000 Current: 43,400,000 → 21,300,000 Total leases: ~96,600,000 → ~76,400,000 **Total debt (financial + leases):** ~4,312,300,000 → ~6,416,400,000 (+48.7%) **Profitability and Cash Flow:** | Item | 2021 | 2022 | |------|------|------| | Revenue | 10,555,300,000 | 20,082,000,000 | | Operating Profit (P/L from operating activities) | 611,700,000 | 533,800,000 | | Profit before tax | 406,900,000 | 408,800,000 | | Net profit | 372,700,000 | 305,300,000 | | EBITDA proxy (Op profit + Depreciation/Amortization) | ~1,081,600,000 | ~1,011,900,000 | Wait - let me recalculate. The "Amortisation Depreciation And Provisions" is 667,100,000 for 2022 and 612,100,000 for 2021. But the cash flow shows "Adjustments For Depreciation And Amortisation Expense And Impairment Loss" of 478,600,000 for 2022. Actually, looking more carefully at operating profit vs. cash flow: - 2022: Operating profit 533,800,000 + D&A 478,600,000 = ~1,012,400,000 EBITDA - 2021: Operating profit 611,700,000 + D&A 469,900,000 = ~1,081,600,000 EBITDA So EBITDA declined by about 6.4% while total debt increased by ~48.7%. **Leverage ratios:** - 2021: Debt/EBITDA ≈ 4,312/1,082 ≈ 4.0x - 2022: Debt/EBITDA ≈ 6,416/1,012 ≈ 6.3x This is a significant deterioration in leverage. **Additional factors to consider:** 1. **Revenue growth**: Revenue nearly doubled (90% increase), but this appears to be largely pass-through due to energy price increases, as "Raw Materials And Consumables Used" also nearly doubled from 6,668,500,000 to 16,730,000,000. This suggests low margin business expansion. 2. **Working capital**: The company had negative operating cash flow in 2022 (35,700,000) vs. positive 1,045,400,000 in 2021. This was driven by: - Large increase in inventories (+627,400,000) - Large increase in trade receivables (+1,280,700,000) - These were partly offset by increase in payables 3. **Cash position**: Cash increased from 885,600,000 to 1,942,400,000, but this was funded by increased borrowings, not operations. 4. **Financing activities**: Net cash from financing was +1,779,500,000 in 2022 vs. -484,300,000 in 2021. The company significantly increased borrowings (+2,127,000,000 non-current borrowings). 5. **Interest coverage**: - 2021: Operating profit 611,700,000 / Finance costs 300,300,000 = 2.0x - 2022: Operating profit 533,800,000 / Finance costs 217,200,000 = 2.5x (improved slightly due to lower finance costs) However, the absolute debt level increase is very significant. Total liabilities increased by 26.9% while equity only increased 6.7%. **Moody's specific adjustments**: Moody's typically makes adjustments to reported debt including: - Adding capitalized leases (already included) - Pension liabilities (non-current provisions for employee benefits: 105,400,000 → 92,000,000) - Adjusting for cash (but cash increased, so net debt still up significantly) Net debt calculation: - 2021: 4,215,700,000 - 885,600,000 = 3,330,100,000 - 2022: 6,340,000,000 - 1,942,400,000 = 4,397,600,000 Net debt increase: 32% Net debt / EBITDA: - 2021: 3,330/1,082 ≈ 3.1x - 2022: 4,398/1,012 ≈ 4.3x Still significant deterioration. **Key conclusion**: Despite revenue growth, the company's leverage has deteriorated substantially because: 1. Debt increased much faster than EBITDA (48.7% vs -6.4%) 2. Debt/EBITDA ratio increased from ~4.0x to ~6.3x (or ~3.1x to ~4.3x net) 3. Operating cash flow turned negative 4. The business required significant external funding to finance working capital growth 5. Profitability declined in absolute terms (lower operating profit, lower net profit) This is clearly a deteriorating leverage trend from a credit perspective. Deteriorating