I need to analyze ENGIE's leverage trend for 2022 based on the financial data provided. Let me focus on key leverage metrics and how they changed from 2021 to 2022. ## Key Leverage Analysis ### Debt Levels **Long-term Borrowings:** - 2022: €30,458M - 2023 (end of 2022): €28,083M - Change: -€2,375M (decrease of ~7.8%) **Current Borrowings:** - 2022: €10,590M - 2023 (end of 2022): €12,508M - Change: +€1,918M (increase of ~18.1%) **Total Borrowings:** €41,048M → €40,591M (slight decrease of ~1.1%) ### Equity Position **Total Equity:** - 2022: €41,980M - 2023 (end of 2022): €39,285M - Change: -€2,695M (decrease of ~6.4%) **Equity attributable to owners:** - 2022: €36,994M - 2023 (end of 2022): €34,253M - Change: -€2,741M (decrease of ~7.4%) ### Profitability and Coverage **Net Income:** - 2021: €3,758M - 2022: €390M (massive decline of ~89.6%) **Current Operating Income:** - 2021: €6,116M - 2022: €4,309M (decline of ~29.5%) **Profit from continuing operations:** - 2021: €3,678M - 2022: -€1,793M (swung to loss) ### Cash Flow **Operating Cash Flow:** - 2021: €7,313M - 2022: €8,586M (improvement of ~17.4%) **Free Cash Flow (Operating - Capex):** - 2021: €7,313M - €5,990M = €1,323M - 2022: €8,586M - €6,379M = €2,207M (improvement) ### Key Leverage Ratios Estimate **Debt/Equity:** - 2021 year-end: ~0.98x (€41,048M/€41,980M) - 2022 year-end: ~1.03x (€40,591M/€39,285M) **Debt/EBITDA proxy (using operating income + D&A):** - 2021: €41,048M / (€6,116M + €4,840M) = €41,048M / €10,956M = 3.75x - 2022: €40,591M / (€4,309M + €5,187M) = €40,591M / €9,496M = 4.27x **Interest Coverage:** - Finance costs increased significantly: €2,061M → €3,700M (+79.5%) - With lower operating income and higher finance costs, interest coverage deteriorated substantially ## Moody's Specific Adjustments Considerations Moody's typically makes several adjustments: 1. **Pension liabilities**: Significant defined benefit remeasurements (€2,718M gain in 2022) - likely treated as debt-like 2. **Operating leases**: Not visible in this data but typically added to debt 3. **Hybrid securities**: Deeply subordinated perpetual notes (€3,767M → €3,393M) - typically given 50% equity credit 4. **Derivative positions**: Large derivative assets and liabilities - netted for leverage 5. **Provisions**: Non-current provisions increased €23,394M → €24,663M ### Critical Factors for Trend: **Negative/Deteriorating Factors:** - Net income collapsed from €3,758M to €390M - Continuing operations swung to loss of €1,793M - Equity declined by 6.4% - Finance costs surged 79.5% - Interest coverage weakened dramatically - Debt/EBITDA increased from ~3.75x to ~4.27x - Operating income declined 29.5% **Positive/Improving Factors:** - Total debt slightly decreased - Operating cash flow improved - Free cash flow improved - Asset disposals generated significant cash (€6,728M from losing control of subsidiaries) ## Conclusion While ENGIE generated strong cash flow and reduced total debt slightly, the **profitability collapse** and **equity erosion** are the dominant factors. The massive increase in finance costs, swing to loss in continuing operations, and 89% decline in net income indicate fundamental earnings weakness. For Moody's, the key concern is that **sustained earnings power has deteriorated significantly**, which directly impacts debt servicing capacity. The ratio of debt to sustainable earnings has worsened, and the company's financial flexibility is reduced despite some cash flow improvements. The trend is **Deteriorating** due to: - Collapse in reported earnings and continuing operations losses - Weakened interest coverage - Declining equity base - Higher finance costs in a rising rate environment - Reduced financial flexibility despite asset sales Deteriorating