To estimate the trend in Moody's adjusted leverage for VINCI for 2022, we evaluate the change in financial strength by comparing the end of 2021 to the end of 2022 using the provided financial data.

1.  **Net Debt Analysis:**
    *   **Current Debt (Borrowings):** Short-term borrowings increased from 5,769,000,000 EUR to 6,368,000,000 EUR.
    *   **Non-current Debt:** Non-current bonds decreased from 22,212,000,000 EUR to 20,425,000,000 EUR; however, other non-current borrowings increased from 2,757,000,000 EUR to 3,205,000,000 EUR.
    *   **Cash Position:** Cash and cash equivalents increased significantly from 11,065,000,000 EUR in 2022 to 12,578,000,000 EUR in 2023.
    *   **Net Debt Trend:** While total gross debt remained relatively stable, the substantial increase in cash and cash equivalents (a 1.5 billion EUR increase) helped to offset debt obligations, generally pointing toward lower net leverage.

2.  **Profitability and Cash Flow:**
    *   **Operating Profit:** Profit from ordinary operating activities grew significantly from 4,723,000,000 EUR (2021) to 6,824,000,000 EUR (2022).
    *   **Cash Flow from Operating Activities:** Increased from 7,806,000,000 EUR (2021) to 9,387,000,000 EUR (2022).
    *   **Equity:** Equity attributable to owners of the parent increased from 22,881,000,000 EUR to 25,939,000,000 EUR, improving the balance sheet cushion.

3.  **Conclusion:**
    VINCI significantly increased its operating profit and operating cash flow in 2022 compared to 2021. Concurrently, the company strengthened its cash position and equity base. Since Moody's adjusted leverage is typically a function of Net Debt/EBITDA, the strong growth in operating profit and cash flow, combined with a healthier liquidity position, indicates that the credit metrics have strengthened. Therefore, the leverage trend is improving.

<answer>Improving</answer>